Worst unemployment report in years

I have no idea.

 

Wait you don’t see the difference between a stable/decreasing unemployment rate vs an increasing unemployment rate?

Also, shall we review how many negative revision months we have had during Bidens last 3 years Vs Trumps 3 you just mentioned?

Oh man and I would love to review the birth/death model with you. I’m sure you know all about that.

By the way, this model saved this report from being negative. A model…

finally, what was the divergence in the household vs establishment during Trumps years vs now?

 

I don’t think the current level of spending at 22.5% of gdp is outrageous. Back out the higher debt service from higher rates and it isn’t outside of historical norms.

We are inevitably going to creep upwards a bit due to demographic changes with social security and Medicare entitlements.

I will agree with you that we need to get deficits back to a managesble level, probably at least half of what they are are now.

A big problem is that for 20+ years we have been cutting tax rates and taxes as a pct to gdp have been ticking downward. We kept having these tax cuts with no plausible plan for reduced spending - and I’d argue without a need for large spending cuts.

We do need to reform entitlements because at the current pace they are unsustainable. Both reduction of spending growth and some additional taxes along the margins.

 

We are in a recession... regardless of what the Dems say. And yes, that description (recession) is important to recognize as a matter of fact.

 

How do you have a recession with positive gdp growth?

 

We don't...

 

First, realize a recession is not labeled until well after it’s already happening. There is a specific committee who is tasked with that and it’s always well after we are in one

with that said, you’ll notice in most case gdp is going up before established periods of recessions.

Gross Domestic Product

GDP is very much so a lagging indicator to economic health.
More than enough data and economists articles regarding this for you to read on if you want.

 

Labor Force Participation Rate - 25-54 Yrs.

Labor participation rate prime age at 84%. Up 0.3%. A full point higher than the highest during Trump.

The tic in unemployment rate is explained by that. 84% is highest since 2000, and near all time high of 84.4% in 1999.

 

Is it usually accelerating?

 

GDP growth was strong in Q2. Is Q3 starting a recession, that we won’t know about until 2025? Possibly but that’s a big stretch given one month of modest job growth and flattening retail sales.

 

you realize you can click on the link to see yourself right?

often it does before it goes flat.
Sometimes it even continues to go up during the recession just at a slower pace.

Generally though, it’s accelerated before an abrupt flattening or in rather bad recession a decline

 

Indeed it is. One can easily answer my question by flipping on the option for percent change from year ago. And if one were to do that, they would find that GDP growth rates generally decline prior to the recession.

 

To Rick we will always be in a constant recession if a Democrat is POTUS regardless of what the numbers say. They fudge the numbers to make Democrats look good and when a Repub ia in office then good numbers are true and honest good numbers

 

You should go look at what gdp did through the Great Recession

Gross Domestic Product

it was going up until about half way through it.

 

I asked about acceleration. That is the second derivative, not the first.

 

It means in Jan there were 50k fewer. But if I estimate 200k more in feb and again it’s -50k revised in March, I underestimated the same 50k jobs. There’s not 100k short only the same 50k that I underestimated last month. They aren’t additive. You catching on math wiz?

I don’t know how you folks function in the workplace.

 

correct. We don’t have a recession.

 

Of course you add it up. When we are reviewing how the job market did during the last year, we add up the total jobs added for the year.
We can then say between all the revisions how much BLS overestimated jobs added.

We have been through this before.

Per your reasoning, Jan and Feb both showed 200k jobs with -50k revisions each means the economy only added 150k total for the year.

 

MAGAts were told when they drank the kool-aid that there would be no math. Please stop hurting their brains.

 

Math is too woke for them to be able to comprehend