Worst unemployment report in years

really not bad news. if it repeats for months after the rate cut, that would be bad news. Cuts in September and perhaps November should provide impact by December/January, the economy is an aircraft carrier, not a jet ski, is the way I see it.

 

heritage foundation...really??

 

T Swift will be back touring the US October - December so that will help the economy rebound.

 

Feels like the bond market sees something beyond what's being reported. That's a pretty steep dive on the 10 year treasury yield in a matter of 4 days: 4.20% (Monday) down to 3.80% (right now).

 

The amount of analysis I read the Bank of England had to do for their inflation calculation to make a “Taylor Swift add back” was crazy. Legit superstar.

 

What could it possibly be? It's a mystery.

 

So you are saying that unemployment indicates there is a recession, even though 4.3% is considered full employment?

There are no hard rules as to what a recession is, but the most common is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP and unemployment is increasing. The Sahm rule is an indicator but not a hard test. It actually says "a recession is likely if those conditions are met". So, with GDP at 2.9%, any talk of a recession just seems like wishful thinking at this point.

 

Wishful thinking by traitors who support fat Elvis traitor!

 

You nailed them at the end. They're definitely trying their hardest to will it to happen so they can jump for joy and say I told you so.

 

This always happens after a peak in employment. There is always a recession. UE will rise to at least 6 or 7 percent before it's all said and done. Look at the historicals if you doubt me.

 

You clearly don't know how to read these reports nor do you understand the huge divergence between the establishment and household survey that is extremely unpresdent.

First, this report would have been negative if it were not for BLS birth/death model adding 246k jobs. This model has been a complete joke and virtually ever month is what saves from very disappointing numbers. This is in part a big reason to most months having big neg revisions. This model has so much lag to it, I don't understand why it's even being used the way it is.

Second, at no time in the history of BLS has the household and establishment survey been this far apart. The last time it was even close to this, we ran right into a recession.

Comparing employment from the BLS household and payroll surveys

Third, you will see a lot of posts about the Sahm rule today but technically it is just shy by a very small amount to be triggered. Even if next month's report goes down to 4.2% unemployment, the Sahm rule will be triggered and this indicator has a flawless history.

Fourth, employment numbers always lag, every single time. We are always in a recession by the time it's obvious what is happening to the labor force. People like you just want to play "but my side is the best" and ignore warning signals.

There have been warning signs for over a year now. Now it's starting to really flash red.

In fairness, the feds have completely sucked at this. Trump and Biden definitely threw gasoline on the fire but the feds did nothing good to make sure the fire was put out so that we didn't end up in this mess.

 

If Trump were in office the Recession is Coming Chicken Little's would be signing a different tune

 

Markets wouldn't be reacting the way they have this week if there was nothing to see in these reports. Some people just prefer denial.

 

Due to demographics, such as low birth rates and returning of the baby boomers, American born workers are probably actually decreasing in number so it would be expected that American born jobs would decrease. To the extent jobs increase once steady state is reached, it will only be due to immigration.

Immigrants are not hurting U.S.-born workers: Six facts to set the record straight

 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf


This level of job growth is actually exceeding that expected due to demographics. The above projects 5 million jobs added over 10 years - that’s about 40,000 added per month. This is entirely due demographics - baby boomers retiring and low birth rates. Once extent job reports exceed these numbers it will be due to immigration.

 

Good luck with that, Trump is going to lose bigly in November. Not sure we want to trust the economy to the president who tripled our deficit and left with less jobs than when he entered, anyways. This Magic wand you think Trump possesses is quite amusing, though.

 

The board's economic experts that have been predicting a recession with every economic report since Biden was inaugurated continue to pretend as if that they know what they're talking about

 

Anticipation of the likely fed rate cut.
Besides a slowdown in the economy is to be expected after four years growth. It would will most likely be mild and probably nowhere close to the two consecutive quarters of negative growth usually used to define a recession.