Worst unemployment report in years

Less than 5% is considered “full employment”. But this is Exactly what the Fed has been wanting and working towards. Bring on those rate cuts!

 

One mildly bad report after umpteen great ones in a row.

The typing with one hand, America hating gang shows up right on time.

 

Great news from a macroeconomic level.

The labor market has been on fire for too long; challenging employers and helping to fuel inflation.

Can't both cool the labor market and always exceed numbers on Job reports.

 

Significantly increases the probability of a rate cut the next time the Fed meets. Actually may be good news for prospective home buyers priced out of the market as the result of "high" mortgage interest rates.

 

Here comes the recession. And the subsequent Trump landslide.

 

Spot on. This is correct.

 

The last GPD report was a stellar 2.9%…. Bad news, bro, there are not two GDP reports left before the election, so no pre election recession for you…

 

I mentioned in another thread business has softened across many industries in the last 3 weeks. Here is Amazon trying to explain it.



Amazon says distraction of Olympics, Trump assassination attempt contributed to weak forecast

 

I meant it the sense that the Fed has long been saying they want to see damage done in the job market before they cut rates. It just hasn’t come as fast as they thought it would. I agree that they waited too long.

 

Well that is a salient point.

 

Wayfair also had a frightening report yesterday.



Wayfair (W) earnings Q2 2024 (cnbc.com)

 

It's coming. Like it or not.

 

As long as they still have a job, agreed.

 

Considering that the unemployment rate is 4.3% the chances are that over 95% of them will have a job and considering that prospective home buyers are much more likely to be employed than the population in general the number is probably over 97%.

 

Chicken Little: "The sky is falling; the sky is falling"

Employment Situation News Release - 2024 M07 Results (bls.gov)

I read yesterday that there were significant temporary job losses in Texas due to Hurricane Beryl.

This report says Hurricane Beryl made no impact. Honestly, I don't trust the Bureau of Labor Statistics to have this right. Time will tell.

It's interesting how much teenage unemployment has gone up. Those states that required $20 per hour, see California, have lost teenage jobs as anticipated.

 

We've been expecting this for quite some time. I know Biden didn't want it to happen too close to the election but most likely 2025 is going to be an ugly year, so my hat's off to whoever inherits that mess. I wouldn't want it. Won't be able to spend our way out of it this time like we did in 2009. No more QE Infinity.

 

I expect a quick recession and a positive second half of 25 going into 26. Rates are just too high and you're seeing the ripple effect. Anyone's guess, though.

 

you know the fed rates drivee the economy..come on man, they waited too long to cut but this is the soft landing