While talking about Clayton shifting to point guard on that thread, I thought it might be fun to start threads devoted to what we expect from certain players/positions this season. That may be fun to no one else outside of me, haha, but so it goes. Since Richard came up in one of the discussions that I found pretty interesting, figured we could start there. Here's my conversation starter on a few points: 1. What production can we expect from Richard? One of my only beefs with Fawcett is his argument that we should be prepared to accept that Richard just isn't a very good shooter, and that his 32% from the arc as a freshman at Belmont or 34% last year are more indicative of him than his 39% in 2022-23. His premise is that everyone expects linear improvement, but some players simply don't have enough upside to improve that way. Well, sure, there are some guys who will never be good shooting the ball, but I don't see that in a Richard who has a nice stroke and who has already shown he can shoot 40%. And, yes, we've seen some guys who for whatever reason get the yips and just can't shoot well again (Brett Nelson, Kenny Boynton, KeVaughn Allen). If you grant Eric's argument that Richard's freshman and junior years are more indicative than his sophomore shooting, however, then what would we say about Pullin? As a freshman, he was 28% from the arc (worse than Richard's 32%). As a sophomore, he was 39% (nearly identical to Richard's). As a junior, he was 31% (again, worse than Richard's 34%). Despite those stats, he was roughly a 33% shooter, then proceeded to hit 39% and 45% (!) his last two years. And that's with a far more ugly shot than Richard's. I think Richard can and should improve as a shooter, but that might require a reduction in minutes. 2. How much should Richard play? IMO, one major difference between Richard's first year here and his second was adjusting to greater minutes played (two minutes more per game last year) and pace (3+ additional possessions per game--the difference between 89th and 17th nationally). Whether simply correlation or causation, his efficiency stats were worse across the board: effective FG% (61% to 52%), rebounding rate (8.9 to 7.0), turnover rate (8.5 to 11.5), etc. He attempted more shots per possession, made fewer, with fewer rebounds, more turnovers, and a substantially worse rating both ffensively (127 to 118) and defensively (100 to 111). He was literally worse in every phase (with the exception of maybe assists). If that is true, then a reduction in minutes could potentially make him a more efficient shooter, but also rebounder and defender. If we can get him in that 24-26 minute range (far less than last year, but even less than his first two seasons), his overall productivity may be slightly reduced, but I would wager he shoots, rebounds, and defends more consistently when on the court. 3. Who can spell Richard at the 3? Last year we only had four guys the staff felt comfortable playing regular minutes in the rotation on the perimeter. Kugel was the primary replacement for Richard at the three. Pullin could defend the three in a pinch, but obviously would be on the ball offensively whenever he was on the court. That left Richard to play all 29 of his minutes exclusively at the three. We have some more options this year. Some have talked about Haugh expanding his game out to the wing, but I still don't see it. He was so darn good at the four last year (especially offensively, where he had the best 2pt% on the team), has great chemistry with Condon, and, with Handlogten's injury, fills out the rotation we need at the four/five. Isaiah Brown is incredibly athletic, has decent enough length to play the three, and has a nice shot. But he is still a freshman, so you don't know what to expect. Some have talked about Martin playing the three--which he did at times at FAU, or at least defended the three--but that's a real ask for someone who is legitimately only 6'1". He won't be able to rebound or defend as effectively on a regular basis against much longer, more athletic SEC wings (as compared with his previous conferences). The guy I would expect to take 15 minutes or so at the three is actually Aberdeen. Yes, he has mostly played the one or two in his previous seasons, he was recruited as a combo guard, and he is very slight (one inch taller than Richard, but 15 pounds less--at minimum). But he is longer and far more athletic than Richard. He has also proven to be a much better defender. With Klavzar likely to eat up minutes at the point behind Clayton, and with Clayton also likely to slide over to the two when Martin is on the bench, I don't really see a ton of minutes in the backcourt for Aberdeen (unless Klavzar bombs). But if he can play a third of the game at the three behind Richard, bringing solid defense, secondary ballhandling in the halfourt, and the ability to attack in the rim in transition or early offense, then give us a handful minutes alongside Clayton and/or Klavzar for defensive purposes, that will be enough to fill out a solid five-man rotation on the perimeter, reduce Richard's minutes, and possibly improve Richard's efficiency. Can't freaking wait to see this team take the floor.
I agree on a lot of those points. I think everyone needs to chill a bit as TG figures out the rotations. There will be some ups and downs as he learns what they can be trusted to handle and who he can trust at the wire. I am looking very much forward to watching this team grow. If they can, this could be a pretty good season.
I agree regarding his shooting. He has been described to me as an “elite shooter” in practices- but it doesn’t translate consistently in games. I keep holding out hope. I do think we will see Florida play 3-guards, with Martin getting minutes there.
that's the key word - consistent. If he can consistently hit 3s, this team is that much better. Like last year, where Richards goes, we go as a team. Maybe not as much as last year but he's still going to be a key part of our offense, even with all these additions.
Agree on Aberdeen spelling him at the 3, but this shows where this very deep backcourt and frontcourt team is missing a piece - that 6'6 to 6'9 wing. I'm still not sold that Haugh can't play the 3, especially if his shot starts to fall more consistently. He seems quick enough laterally to keep up with SFs on defense too, but we'll see.
Great post man. A few months ago, when I was discussing Urban taking relevant minutes at the 1....It was based on thinking that Will should be playing about 24 minutes at the 3, which slides over a few guys for PT there. I generally don't have the time to go down the rabbit hole on this board, but in general...I am 100% aligned with you in that! Will's shooting % can climb back up, for sure, but I think it's based on shot quality more than anything. Anecdotally, his % went down a lot when he wasn't set and a bit rushed. So his sweet spot is to focus on shot quality....That should keep his attempts at like 4 per game from deep, as opposed to 6 like last season. That alone will make a big difference. I think Will has the most playing time pressure this season. I think we are too stacked for him to have long dry spells from 3 like he did last season, and I think we have some guys that can rise and make a case for PT at the 3. There are several lineup possibilities, and I think it'll depend on the opponent....But I see Martin, with his strength and athleticism playing the 3 some vs certain opponents, with Denzel more of a perimeter defender guarding the 1 and 2. There are a lot of factors, here (mainly, opposing lineups), but at a high level...I think this happens from time to time, and perhaps even quite a bit during SEC play. This last point has a LOW PROBABILITY, but I am sharing for discussion purposes, and ya know, for fun. What happens if Haugh's offense/shooting takes a big leap forward, and his defensive fundamentals/footwork improve? I can see a world where we go big and he gets some minutes at the 3 this season vs certain opponents (vs a team with a 3 that isn't a major threat, or vs a tall lineup when Will is not tall/big enough to be effective)....and I think we tinker with this early in the season. AGAIN, low probability as of now....but I am pegging Haugh's development as the #1 x-factor for this season. Cheers ya'll...Happy Thursday.
Regarding shooters, I almost always discount their freshman percentages because most have trouble adjusting to the college game. Freshmen usually shoot considerably better as sophomores (eyes on you, Mr. Haugh). Also, when roles change, effectiveness can too. Michael Frasier II was a lethal shooter when he wasn't expected to carry the load. But when he became The Guy as a senior, his shooting efficiency dropped quite a bit. Was he suddenly a worse shooter? I doubt it. It's probably just that BD needed him to get more shots up, so he couldn't pick and choose his spots as well. I'm not worried about Will Richard. He was streaky this past season but maybe that's because he was now on every team's scouting report as a shooter to defend. I do expect his minutes to drop just a little, not because of him, but because CTG now has a well-stocked cupboard of shooters. I also expect Will's percentages to go back up because he'll be in a position again in which he can choose his shots better. Klavzar and Martin will be the guys that can create their own shots when needed.
Good post. At the three spot, Will is good with fewer minutes, we need his defense, rebounding, steals and shooting. I feel a couple of things will happen, three guards at front, we have enough of very good guards that against some teams, will bring some disruption to the opposing team. I for one am for Haugh getting a chance at the three and going big. Hopefully, his outside three shot will get more consistent and allow us to go big. Thinking Haugh3, Condo four and Rueben5 spot. Hopefully, all three players up their shooting games. As for the freshman Brown he looks capable, has a little size, good strength, a good shot and seems to get steals, a lot like Richard's. I think his defense will have to get his attention because that will dictate his minutes, as we have numbers of players who will be pushing for minutes. It will be exciting in the preseason, with some tough games and watching as CTG tries out a lot of different players to see what is going to work. It is hard to wait to see us compete at the highest level of college basketball. The SEC is a great conference and can compete with the best. All I can think is it is another chance to get attention as a building program and hopefully have a better showing in the NCAA tournament. The SEC tournament showed the nation we are pretty darn good when we are playing as a team. Go get'um Gators!
On Haugh, I guess it's hard for me to envision him playing the three for us since Golden simply hasn't done much with longer, similar skilled combo forwards. Fudge was the closest, but he was almost exclusively a four. Plus, Haugh was just so surprisingly effective last year. He improved defensively as the season went on, especially playing in space, and had the second best block rate on the team. Offensively, he had the best 2pt% the third (!) best offensive rating, and the best (!!!) turnover rate during conference play. Pulling him away from the basket and forcing him drive against smaller, quicker defenders or shoot jumpers seems to me to be deemphasizing his strengths in favor of his weaknesses. IMO, I see him as something of less skilled, more defensively minded version of David Lee.
Michael Frasier II was a lethal shooter when he wasn't expected to carry the load. But when he became The Guy as a senior, his shooting efficiency dropped quite a bit. Was he suddenly a worse shooter? I doubt it. It's probably just that BD needed him to get more shots up, so he couldn't pick and choose his spots as well. Interesting Planet, I was thinking about Frasier too with my reply. Richards is streaky, when he is on, he is fire! When he is "off" - well, nuff said there. To address rserina's points, perhaps less minutes (I expect that) will see his production increase. If not, it may be a long season for him.
That would be ideal. I think we have the depth to do it. Of course, most coaches shorten their bench in March.
Only exception would be Clayton. He logged 30 mpg last year, and we need him at multiple positions this season. Pullin was at about 34, but he had put in those kinds of minutes previously. Clayton hasn’t. We’ll see.
You are probably right in his freshman year. He looked 6’ 10” at the spring football game. In watching his highlights before he signed, his shooting looked very good. I am sure he is working on his shooting, offensive moves, quickness, with this said, as with three guards being disrupting, a large three and a big front line could help against other large teams. If, in preseason games trying him at the three doesn’t look very good, then back to power forward with some additional muscle and weight and get his offensive game going better. A blond Matt Bonner, wouldn’t hurt my feelings. It is nice to have large options this year!
