Why is Education Level the Best Predictor of Voting?

Fair enough. I should have been more clear. The very small percentage of people who took high school may have taken Latin. But the notion that it was a better or more complete education is, frankly, absurd. It would be hilarious to show a 1900 high school student what a 21st century AP science or calculus class looks like.

 

Agree. Prior to 2016, the last time a majority of college educated voters voted Democrat was in 1964. Even as recently as 2012 a majority of college educated voters voted for the Republican candidate (Mitt Romney). 2008 was somewhat of an anomaly with a majority of voters with a 4-year degree voting for McCain while voters with advanced degrees preferred Obama who also received a majority of the votes of voters with less than a 4-year degree.

 

Latin? You can't even hit on Latin women with Latin.

 

It’s not that complicated. The republicans leaned into populism. Many of the consequences of his insane promises (the misinfo on things like China paying for tariffs, Mexico paying for a wall, scapegoating of migrants, lies about crime rate, or bringing back coal for example to please a working class base) alienated people who actually understood the issues. He won favor from the working class at the expense of everyone else.

 

These trends were underway prior to Trump, so "populism" isnt the full story here.

 

But it was the same populist undercurrent, Trump was the first one to fully embrace it. How many times did we hear about the swamp, about elites in the media etc all the way back to Bush 1? And then the Great Recession happened and we got the tea party, which was the same group that he ended up exploiting.

 

Technically Sarah “I can see Russia from my house” Palin predated the tea party, which only came about after that election.

So while McCain obviously was a villain to MAGA, his advisors convinced him at the time to embrace that sort of moron populism which morphed into the tea party and then MAGA. That “movement” was already afoot even then, described by whatever name one wants to call it.

Personally, I’ve always blamed W for breaking the minds of Republicans. Everything they spent their lives believing only ended up in calamity and failure. Some people learn from their mistakes. People of low intellect or who belong in psych wards tend to obsessively repeat them….

 

People seem not to remember the Bush administration

 

I think you heard it (particularly in 2008-14 in the aftermath of the recession), its just that when it comes out of the mouth of George Bush, McCain or Mitt Romney its not very effective. Its probably more correct to say that at least in 2008 (and '12), Obama was able to out-populist the right-wing. And Hillary was a poor choice to follow Obama in that regard.

 

True - HS was originally a college-bound education. In the 1920s only 10-20% of HS aged Americans went to school.

 

The Romney (business owner, lower taxes) and Bush (evangelical) coalition was no longer enough to win elections. Trump added the poorly educated, low propensity voters to the mix.

The rest of the GOP joined the program of reality denials, culture wars and conspiracy theories to aid this coalition. You can find old video of Senator John N. Kennedy speaking like the Oxford graduate he is before he adopted the cornpone accent he now uses to appeal to the MAGAt crowd.

 

It's hysterical how much this factoid annoys the right. If it makes you feel any better, I think it's MAGA that is ruining your average. Traditional Pubs, the ones repulsed by Trump, are still probably pretty solid in the education department.

MAGA is to the Republican party as FSU is to the ACC academics-wise...a (really big) boat anchor.

 

There is actually a political science term for this. It’s called cross cutting cleavages. Political identification consists of many factors for each individual; things like education, religion, age, etc. Right now, education is trending toward democrats in the aggregate but that doesn’t mean that it is the only factor.

 

If indeed more educated people vote Democrat the reason is obvious....they want their college loan paid off. Gimme, gimme gimme.

 

You are posting out of your "A" again and I resent it. I completed 7 years at UF (in under 6 years) without scholarship or grant dollar one or the first student loan and without owing anyone a cent. I most decidedly did not come from a wealthy family. It's amazing what hard work and a dedicated, caring family can accomplish, but there's no reason to expect you would understand that.

Upon graduation, I then spent the next 6.5 years of my life giving back to my community serving as a prosecutor and working my way up to a very high position in a one of the largest State Attorneys office in the state.

What the hell have you ever done that benefited anyone other than you?

 

I had no family monetary support for four years and my family was low enough on the ladder to get Pell grants, I worked nearly full time, only borrowed 6k or so and paid it all back within a few years. It never once occurred to me that it might get forgiven.
My current job quite literally is central to the US economy, helps millions of Americans every year, and I have sent far more than my grants back to Florida in various forms, so I think Florida and the Pell Grant system got their money’s worth.
But the point is, and not directed at you, that scapegoating people who take loans, or imply that they expect extra favors for it is just another version of class warfare, twice over.

 

I too graduated from UF without a penny of grant money I did come from a wealthy family which helped. As for what I ever did that benefited anybody I would say I lived my entire life to benefit others. I had a successful homebuilding business in the 80s when the recession hit me with several high dollar spec homes in inventory. I probably could have filed bankruptcy, screwed some of my subcontractors and material suppliers and walked away with some cash in hand I chose not. I went to work for Tishman Constructions management team Tishman built the world Trade center and were construction managers on Disney's Epcot. Outside of Halliburton they were probably the biggest construction management firm in the world at the time. I washed out with Tishman because I couldn't play their cheating/lying game. I went to work for Orange County at probably 1/4 the pay I was used to making but I enjoyed it and stayed. As for what I ever did that benefited anybody other than me I lived my life that way.

You wouldn't believe much of what I have done for others in trouble.

 

Republicans have leaned hard into populism and anti-intellectualism, which has accelerated the trend of college-educated people favoring Democrats. Coalitions are shifting. I bet it starts with the Reagan Revolution, which itself was a product of shifting coalitions.