What scares me, that schedule in 2024

Said it in another thread, and I'll say it again.

Perhaps Napier is taking a longer view approach to this season and is considering the need for an OC, but wanting to make sure it is the "right" hire rather than the "right now" hire.

Pure speculation on my part.

 

I think he has used the portal to plug holes and now you are seeing an uptick in their HS recruiting. That's not an accident. Success breeds success.

 

It is a bit early to think of 2024, but let's make some really bad assumptions about that schedule, estimate the rankings blindly, and Florida's relative talent/coaching differential. I think Florida will start 2024 ranked around 20 to unranked, with a 50% chance of beating 6 teams and enough growth to beat 3 or 4 teams ranked between 10 and 20 with Texas and LSU being the measuring sticks for the top 10. Tier 1 teams like Georgia and FSU (yep, I went there) are far enough ahead of Florida to reasonably forecast those as losses. I honestly think Napier will have a year 3 breakthrough just as Norvell did at FSU and win 9 or 10 games. In the ACC I would say that 10 wins is easier to get to than 9 wins in the SEC, and 9 wins buy Napier some good graces for 2025. I assume that if Napier wins 6 games at most in 2024 that he is gone. I also think that this far out in time that Napier's teams will stop having brainfarts like they did against Utah. Looking even further into the future, Napier must win 10 games in 2025 and get the Gators in position for the new SEC alignment.

• Tier 1
  • Georgia - 1 to 3
  • @ FSU - 3 to 10
  • LSU - 10 to 20 (upper gatekeeper to Tier 1)
• Tier 2
  • @ Texas - 10 to 15 (lower gatekeeper to Tier 1)
    
  • @ Tennessee - 10 to 20
    
  • Texas A&M - 15 to 25
• Tier 3 (includes Florida)
  • Kentucky - 20 to unranked
  • Ole Miss - 20 to unranked
  • @ Mississippi State - 20 to unranked
    
  • Miami - 20 to unranked
    
  • UCF - 20 to unranked
• Tier 4
  • Samford - unranked