What is the Future of College Football?

I think you are right on all counts with perhaps the NFL/Collegiate merger model being a stretch.

Amazing what happens when you put the Fox (NCAA) in charge of guarding the hen-house.

 

Forget NIL -- these are the real issues college leaders need to solve

 

The NCAA's lack of leadership is profound and obvious.
Full-tilt dysfunctional.
Kudos to Mark Emmert.

 

Nick Saban apologizes for singling out Texas A&M and Jackson State, says collectives are real issue with NIL

 

[QUOTE="Gatorhead, post: 13834269, member:1875]
I just wonder, with NIL and the transfer portal, and conference realignment, if CBN's philosophy and plans may have gotten "de-railed" before they even had a chance to start?[/QUOTE]

Yes, they have, imho. NIL, i.e. ‘$$$ to sign’ has almost completely neutralized CBN’s army of charters & plotters in a flash. Didn’t he just say (someone tell me if I heard him wrong) he will now need a $20mil per year war chest to compete with the big dogs now. I just don’t believe UF will flare some elbows and get neck deep in this ridiculous game.

 

Yes, they have, imho. NIL, i.e. ‘$$$ to sign’ has almost completely neutralized CBN’s army of charters & plotters in a flash. Didn’t he just say (someone tell me if I heard him wrong) he will now need a $20mil per year war chest to compete with the big dogs now. I just don’t believe UF will flare some elbows and get neck deep in this ridiculous game.[/QUOTE]
I bet nfl owners would jump out of their skin for a 20 mil payroll. If all things are relative, 20 mil seems like a bargain for a team with 90k seats and 50 mil from the conference. Give me the team, I like tge business model. The ping pong team, not so much. They need to do a couple car washes.

 

I share the OP pessimism. I do not see anyway that an uncapped system does not become dominated by a few top teams based on resources. Look at the big European soccer leagues, which are uncapped, and each is dominated by a few rich teams. The Premier League is the most competitive, and it has a “big six” in a league of 20.

 

NIL will die down when the ROI doesn't bring NC's for 99.9%. The game was always going to change like it has from the beginning. Your choice is to continue watching and enjoy it or move on. The game wont miss you. The system is geared to capture the new fan because it has always known the current fan will lose interest or die off.
I will continue to watch and enjoy it, NIL or the portal doesn't bother me.

I watch for the name on the helmet not the one on the jersey. The latter has always changed, the former has been constant.

 

I see multiple championships for the Florida Gators Football program.

 

All excellent points in your post but I would address this one.
The short answer is no. Even without the new NIL paradigm shift, we would likely do better but not "compete" with the Bama's and UGAG's of the world. They are going to pay players and cheat no matter what the rules say.
Now, CBN organization, extra staff, approach and everything will go a long way and recruiting will improve, but with the new NIL deals we will have the OPPORTUNITY to compete with the others at the top. Whether we will or not is another story. Clearly Dumbo chose to spend 30 million for the top class but will we?

 

It’s already been that way for a long time. The money dynamics are changing and so will the few top teams but nothing else is really changing.

 

Right now, it's a free for all with no regulation. Once things settle down and these collectives and whatever folks handing out cash realize the ROI isn't worth it, the problem will correct itself and there won't be bidding wars for every top 300 prospect. I also believe there will be some kind of guardrails from the future NCAA leadership (limited transfer) that will help keep things in line. Let's face it, this kind of stuff has been going on for decades, but now it's above board and out there in the open for everyone to see.

I'm more concerned about the superconference realignments hurting the smaller D1 schools and changing the landscape of college football in a negative way. IMO there should be a 14-team limit per conference, and the NCAA should have the ability to approve or deny any movement so schools won't be jumping around chasing the money. There needs to be some kind of structure that enforces revenue sharing to some degree. Unfortunately the NCAA has no power nowadays and it's a shame how the inmates are running the asylum.

 

I think it all comes down to
Spend or not to spend....

 

Dumbo didn’t spend any money. His fanbase did. Same idiots that started these guaranteed 100 million dollar guaranteed contracts for coaches that go 8-4.

 

True, but he's not going to say "No, I'd rather beat those guys with good old fashioned coaching". Won't win with that, Mullen is case in point.

 

Oops, wrong future.