What is going to happen in this mid-term election?

This guy looks like he knows his stuff. He killed it back on Oct 17th.

 

Nice spin. It was not a great day for the blue team. Its like saying the Gators had a great day because we lost by only 3 points.

Dems thought it would be a sweeping issue. It was not.

The problem was lousy candidates.
Which fortunately Trump supported and looks foolish because of.

So the dems lost some power. Trump looks stupid.

Win/win for people like me.

 

How was I wrong? I literally gave what ifs for both scenarios... Lol Some of you guys just see a user name and react.

Re-read my post.

 

It was a very good day for the blue team and for America. This isn't a football game. All those House seats the Repubs weren't able to flip matter. In 2024 the Dems will only need to flip 7 or so seats instead of dozens to regain House control. And Repubs with a slim majority the next 2 years is way better than those nuts having a big majority. Repubs should have absolutely crushed the Dems in this midterm. That's why we are seeing all the right-wing pundits throwing tantrums.

And abortion was a huge issue. You stated a while back (pre Dobbs) that abortion was your number 1 issue. Now you want to pretend that no one else cares about it.

 

Exit polls in PA had abortion as the most important issue. Abortion as the most important issue had 27% nationally, only beaten out by inflation at 32%. You claimed that it wouldn't be an important issue. That was clearly a wrong thing to say about the issue. Add in the there were 5 ballot initiatives, 3 to enshrine abortion rights in state Constitutions (all passed) and 2 amendments that would restrict rights in state Constitutions (both failed in red states), and that one of these initiatives drove up turnout so much in Michigan that Democrats just took over the entire state government, you were quite wrong about abortion.

Inflation and abortion lead the list of voter concerns, edging out crime, NBC News Exit Poll finds

 

Abortion was indeed a factor. I was against the SC overturning Roe V Wade for numerous reasons, not just for political purposes, but Tuesday showed how big of a topic abortion is for some people. I overestimated it for sure.

 

Uh… this is your exact quotes. Seems pretty wrong.

“99% of Americans arent thinking about abortion nearly as much as they are gas, food, rates, etc”

“I'll tell uou what isn't going to be the deal the left wishes it was. Abortion.
They need it yo take the attention away from the economy, but abortion just isnt a day to day issue for 99.9% of Americans, but gas and housing is.”

 

I am not the majority. Never claimed I was. You also have to understand that prople claiming abortion was a high issue wasnt broken down by party.

My guess is plenty of people like me would list it as number one if asked too. Its not like only dems care about it.

 

We just care about it more…

 

Nice omissions there city.
I said IF a red wave happens.
I also said what the answer was IF a red wave did not happen.

Also... Again. Exit polling shows both sides. Perhaps more conservative voters had abortion as the #1 issue in Pennsylvania?

Polling of democrats prior to the election did not match the exit polling data which makes it possible that pro-lifers impacted the exit polling data.

But if you are honest. I clearly said IF a red wave happens it would be because...

I even emphasized the word IF in my post.

 

Looking like iboy nailed it.

 

Given the rate at which the abortion is the most important issue voters voted for the Democratic candidates, it does not seem like that is the case except for a potentially very small minority. The cross-tabs don't help your case here.

 

Really? Based on what metric?

 

Based on so many anti-abortion Republicans, including God Boy DeSantis, running away from the issue as fast as they could. If Repubs truly cared about abortion, they would have tried harder to actually defend their position on it. But most of them don't actually care, they just used it as a political issue for the 50 years before the Dobbs decision.

 

Votes

 

With such a small majority as it currently appears, the moat is much shallower. Will be much easier to recapture the House. If 60 seats had been flipped it would take much longer and cost far more.

 

I think for staunch pro choice folks, it is straightforward to see the impact of Trump putting three Justices on the bench and seeing what is being passed or discussed in various red states. I think there was an assumption by many that voters who identified inflation as their number one concern would automatically blame and punish Biden and the Democrats for it despite the relative complexity of that issue.

 

Yeah the football game analogy is really dumb. It's dumb because unlike a football game, this game is never over. Every election is like another quarter of the game. So this quarter, Repubs were expected blow out Dems by 4 TDs, but instead they won it by a field goal. Makes it way easier for Dems to take the lead next quarter.