Curious what people think is going to happen in this election? I have my own ideas which aren't quite as rosy as some on the right but I think as usual you will see that many polls in these races are off in the last month. We will see if they correct many of them soon so they they don't have real big misses with many of their final polls.
The special election for the open seat in NY's 19th district could be telling. In most of the polls leading up to the election Molinaro, the Republican candidate who was also the County Executive of the largest country in the district was leading in most of the polls. Ryan the Democrat ended up winning. Molinaro focused on the economy while Ryan focused on the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade. Democrat Pat Ryan wins bellwether special election in New York’s Hudson Valley Marc Molinaro leads Pat Ryan in NY congressional race: poll Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro leads Democrat Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan for Delgado’s vacated 19th congressional district seat 49.5% to 39.7% with about 11% undecided, according to the Triton Polling & Research survey conducted for Freedom Council USA. A survey released six weeks ago for the same independent, right-leaning GOP firm, Freedom Council USA, also had Molinaro leading Ryan among likely voters 51.6% to 38.4%
I will just say anyone thinking special elections might be predictive nationwide in 2022 might want to look at 2018. Sometimes polls get crazy with those and predicting turnout for each side can be very hard.
1. Welcome back. 2. I'll tell uou what isn't going to be the deal the left wishes it was. Abortion. They need it yo take the attention away from the economy, but abortion just isnt a day to day issue for 99.9% of Americans, but gas and housing is. How that translates in our polarized society, I have no idea, but my gut tells me it wont be a great day for the blue team.
Of course Ryan's team lied about Molinaros record on abortion which has actually been more moderate than the false ads depicted. The dems are doing the same to Michael Lee here in NC. Lying in ads about him allowing exceptions for health and rape. Its a desperation move to distract from what most Americans are worrying about daily.
Yep I think abortion only gets a few more Dems to the polls that might not have went otherwise. I think the vast majority of Indies don't have that as a priority. Grocery prices and Utilities are crushing many people now.
I haven't looked at polling lately. Seems people have been saying Rs will take House and the Senate will be close. I have no gut feelings or bases to believe I know what's going to happen any more than anyone else. The Democrats are obviously hoping the Supreme Court swing brings out a lot of new or less consistent voters. Republicans are hoping the voters blame Biden for gas prices and inflation. Historically, the party in the WH doesn't usually do well in midterms. If the Democrats were somehow able to hold the Senate, I would consider that a moral victory if not a practical one given that judicial appointments and impeachment trials happen in the Senate.
The R's take the House and immediately disband the Jan 6 cmte. Then they start having hearings about Hunter Biden, that the Jan 6 cmte was formed in the first place, and introduce articles of impeachment on Joe Biden. The Senate? who knows. I don't see either party gaining a super majority.
By the way I still think that the Republicans will regain their majority in the House although not by a very large margin.
I think they will get somewhere in the 230 area +/- 5 seats so 225 - 235. Right now I am leaning to Reps getting 51 in the Senate but want to see what happens the next few weeks.
In the list of what’s most important to voters, I’ve noticed one that I’ve never seen before: Future of Democracy in the US. Take that and the reality that women make up a sizable majority of newly registered voters, and several Bozo candidates and I’d have to say I don’t have a clue.
My guess Democrats hold the senate, republicans narrowly take the house. This really should have been a slam dunk for Republicans but between Dobbs and new abortion bans, Trumps continued idiocy and some horrifically bad Republican candidates it will likely generally split down the middle.
Not so sure on the abortion dynamic. It motivates more young voters to vote, who other wise may not, and is also going to pull some suburban soccer mom types who aren’t really keen on these nuts getting involved in their reproductive rights.
Massive Red Wave? Another Democrat Group Abandons Key House Races "Now, another Democrat spending group — the House Majority PAC — is doing the same in the latest bad sign for vulnerable Democrats who see their national support dry up in the final stretch of the campaign. The lack of funds for races that have been key to Democrats' 2022 plans comes as Republican groups have expanded the midterm election map significantly, spending money in a range of places where Democrats didn't plan to need defensive action." "In races that are competitive for Democrats — ranked as "toss up" contests by the Cook Political Report — candidates in Biden's party are finding themselves without any outside help to keep their campaigns afloat and on the airwaves in the final days of the consequential election cycle as GOP groups spend heavily in attempts to expand the likely Republican"
