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Well, Van Jones finally said out load what we all knew

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gaterzfan, Feb 24, 2024.

  1. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    6.1% decrease from 2021 to 2022 and 12.7% decrease from 2022 to 2023 (according to Jeff Asher's data). And, again, this is after a constant decline from the early 90s.
     
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  2. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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    Found a couple of interesting links indicating that in spite of the declines from spike in 202 through 2023 (estimated) the # of 2023 gun-related homicides is 20+% higher than the # experienced in 2019. I believe this increase far outstrips the overall growth in the US population during the same time period ~~ 2%. If my back of the envelope calc is correct, this indicates the increase in the # murders in the US from 2019 through 2023 is running about 10X the growth of the US population.

    Gun Violence Archive

    [​IMG]


    This link has an interesting graph of non-suicide Gun Deaths from 2014-2023 and you can see how 2023 deaths are much higher than 2019.

    Gun Violence by the Numbers in 2023 (thetrace.org)

    I guess the CDC only has data through 2022 but their table indicates higher rates in 2022 than 2019 ... with a significant increases in Black and Hispanic rates.

    TABLE. Firearm homicide annual rates and counts, by race and ethnicity — United States, 2019–2022[​IMG]
    Race and ethnicity*
    Rate† (no.)
    2019
    2020 2021 2022
    A/PI, NH 1.0 (202) 1.0 (208) 1.2 (241) 1.1 (233)
    AI/AN, NH 6.4 (154) 7.9 (191) 7.7 (185) 9.3 (224)
    Black or African American, NH 20.5 (8,438) 28.3 (11,832) 30.4 (12,721) 27.5 (11,565)
    White, NH 1.6 (3,129) 2.0 (3,969) 2.1 (4,064) 2.0 (3,828)
    Hispanic or Latino, any race 3.8 (2,301) 4.8 (2,947) 5.5 (3,455) 5.5 (3,500)
    Overall§ 4.4 (14,414) 5.8 (19,384) 6.3 (20,958) 5.9 (19,637)


    So I guess the situation in gun murders from 2020 through 2023 is akin to what we've seen in treasury rates over the last 4-5 months ... while they have been decreasing, they are still higher than what was seen a year ago.
     
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  3. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    But, again, you have to pretty much cherry pick a time period out to find it "increasing." It has been falling in both the long- and short-term. You have to basically select the years in which it was lowest as a baseline rather than either year-over-year numbers or longer term trends.
     
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  4. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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  5. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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    From 2014 through 2023 is nine years indicating an overall growth trend. Perhaps over a longer period the rate per capita is down, I don't know but the past 9 years shows growth. Heck, you're the person that cherry picked 2020-2023 to assert a trend. Pick any time you want. I'm using what I've thus far found.

    Dang, some people!!!:emoji_angry:
     
  6. archigator_96

    archigator_96 GC Hall of Fame

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    It does seem that progressives/liberals only harp on the Ahmaud Arbery / George Floyd type cases. Without the racist axe to grind they tend to lose interest. Not sure why, maybe because they feel like they can make a difference on one of them but not the other.
     
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  7. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Yes, over a longer period, the rate is down. And over a shorter period.
     
  8. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  9. slocala

    slocala VIP Member

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    Agreed.

    Not a hot take, but my frustrations with the far left… Specially, black-on-black murder is not a “political affiliation problem”. It is a conscious decision by society at large to accept that non-blacks are not allowed to help blacks with solutions unless it fits a black devised “partnering” solution.

    (see Killer Mike’s ideas)

    The cult of media has turned to punish the “white savior” — thus the dilemma of suburban progressives as they “white-flight” to the exits.
     
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  10. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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  11. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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  12. QGator2414

    QGator2414 VIP Member

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    I think you are taking numbers to manipulate a narrative.

    Now I do not know this and I have not done the research. But how much do you want to bet the murder “rates” in the states won by trump you refer to are almost singularly driven by democrat led large cities in said states? I am sure there is a pub led city out there with bad numbers. But…
     
  13. slocala

    slocala VIP Member

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    I think money trickles down from the top and pools in the area where the state has the biggest reservoir. My guess is that the red states have a blue tarp over the city as you described. The reservoir is located in the gated communities in the suburb.
     
  14. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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  15. mrhansduck

    mrhansduck GC Hall of Fame

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    I think this is looking at total numbers rather than rates. I'm not sure your link to Pew is inconsistent with what mdgator is saying. From your link:

    While 2021 saw the highest total number of gun deaths in the U.S., this statistic does not take into account the nation’s growing population. On a per capita basis, there were 14.6 gun deaths per 100,000 people in 2021 – the highest rate since the early 1990s, but still well below the peak of 16.3 gun deaths per 100,000 people in 1974.
     
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  16. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    It should be noted that this is not the rate of murder but rather the "age-adjusted" rate of murder with guns only. I was focusing in on the murder rate, not the age-adjusted gun murder rate. I do suspect that more murder is being done with guns as guns become more easily obtainable and more readily available to solve petty disputes.
     
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