That is not even remotely what I said. I was refuting your thesis that the disorganized Russian withdrawal from Kyiv was strategically insignificant because they had no intention of taking all of Ukraine. No, Russia is not going to keep fighting until they take all of Ukraine. They can’t. That would take a major offensive effort that Russia seems neither to have the ability nor the will to mount. Their strategy is obvious: erode Ukraine’s national will to continue the war, get them to the peace table, and try to keep as much stolen land as possible.
I think we've had this discussion before, within this thread. We don't have to guess. The actions on the ground speak for themselves. They were targeting Kyiv at one point, of course. That's the easiest, quickest way to achieve their objectives. Take out the capital. But it wasn't the only way they could achieve their objectives.
Well, their objective, again, was the complete conquest of Ukraine, so one way or another, yes, they had to take the capital.
Sure, conquest of America’s gun platform. Russia would probably tell you it’s methodically achieving that and you’re not going to hurry that.
Russian agents collected intelligence to disable rail networks across Poland to cut the flow of aid to Ukraine. Poland stopped a Russian plot to attack aid trains to Ukraine (msn.com) Polish authorities have thwarted a Russian attempt to attack aid trains destined for Ukraine in an operation that has seen people arrested from March to July as the scale of the operation was slowly revealed by the Polish Internal Security Agency and the Lublin National Prosecutror's Office. .................. "They received tasks for remote execution directly from Moscow, and then, after completing them, collected remuneration in cryptocurrencies (mostly bitcoin), which they then exchanged for cash," a statement translated by the New Voice of Ukraine said.
Putin's puppet at it again. This time threatening retaliation against Republican's that don't do his .. er... Putin's bidding. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/trump-ukraine-congress-hunter-biden/ "“Congress should refuse to authorize a single additional shipment of our depleted weapons stockpiles … to Ukraine until the FBI, DOJ and IRS hand over every scrap of evidence they have on the Biden Crime Family’s corrupt business dealings,” Trump said at the rally. He added that any Republican lawmakers who didn’t join the effort should face primary challenges, a tactic he used last year to unseat Republicans who voted to impeach him for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection."
I wouldn’t discount the ability of the Russians to mount successful offensives in Ukraine if this war carries on. Most Ukrainian sources are remarking on how well Russia was prepared for their counteroffensive. I believe Hitler was within 10 miles of the Kremlin at one point. The Russians have a history of fumbling the football five times in the first half, due to incompetence and disorganization.
Wars typically require adjustments. The U.S. had to adjust to invading Iraq, defeating it and then being defeated.
Brits say that Vlad Putin needs to get a grip. Vladimir Putin is finally losing his psychological grip The article indicates that Putin may be in grave danger from his elites. They have lost a lot of their net worth from this war and the resulting sanctions, and they cannot be happy about that.
China says it is going to stop selling drones to Russia. Their economy must be in really bad shape if they are willing to cooperate with the U.S. and Europe and stop shipping military hardware to Russia. China is acting surprised that their drones are being converted to military use by both sides, and says it wants to remain neutral in the Ukraine War. Funny stuff right there. Translation: Russia is starting to look like a loser in this conflict, and we do not want to be associated with a loser on the international stage. (Or maybe Putin has not been paying his bills since he ran out of money.) China moves to curb drone exports, citing Ukraine war
If that is true, and I was advising Russia, I would tell them to stop talking about it and prove it: mount an undeniably successful offensive and force the Ukrainians to sue for peace on conditions favorable to Russia. Of course, if it isn’t true, and the best Russia can do is march backwards slowly, then I would advise something different: hold the line as best you can, but keep running your mouth like you have this grand plan and Ukraine is stumbling into the trap. Maybe that will weaken the knees of Ukraine’s allies. Maybe we can achieve with information operations that which we cannot achieve on battlefield.
The second option is ineffective when bombs are hitting Moscow. Not going to convince anyone of a grand plan when Putin is helpless to protect the center of Russia.
Maybe. I don’t think we should overestimate the importance of those small attacks, though. The Russian people’s support for this war is probably not going to wane much over that. Lots of body bags coming home in the dark of night, though, has always had an adverse effect on public opinion when national survival is not actually at stake.
Good point, kind of like Vietnam. Lots adding up for Putin leaving him vulnerable, which was probably furthest from his mind when he started this invasion.
Much like Vietnam. Only with a higher casualty rate in a much denser period (American deaths in Vietnam were about 58K over a roughly seven-year period; if you conservatively divide in half our national estimate for Russian KIA, then it’s about the same over an 18-month span). And — not a popular thing to say, but true nonetheless — we had a lot of tactical victories and progress to show the American people in Vietnam. I bring that up not to rehabilitate the history of that war but only to contrast with Russia, which has no such victories to tout to its people about the sacrifice being “worth it.” That’s why — short of U.S. air and sea support — the Ukrainians best strategy remains to focus its efforts on killing Russians, not necessarily on recapturing ground.
If this continues, at some point, Russia is going to mount an offensive. Right now, Russia is doing just fine by their own measurements, bleeding Zekenskyy’s army without taking a major tactical risk. Can you explain exactly what is accomplished by sending troops into a meat grinder? Eventually, Ukraine runs out of troops.
