They will have to add it to the National List of Shame, right under Afghanistan. Every country in eastern Europe is on that list (Ukraine has the honor of being listed twice). They haven't gone back into Afghanistan, so maybe they are capable of learning from their mistakes. Once Ukraine is in NATO, there is not much that Russia can do except send in saboteurs after their power plants or something like that to disrupt their economy. I suspect that Russia's economy will collapse after the war is ended.
Now is when we find out if Putin is desperate enough to use nukes. He won't use them on Moscow, of course. But he might nuke Kiev to end the war and hope he can hold on to power that way (and hope that the U.S. doesn't respond militarily).
I don't disagree with anything you said. But I guess one advantage of getting old is that you see that even what seem like unqualified victories in the short term sometimes create unintended consequences down the line that result in other problems. Not necessarily bigger problems, suggesting that the original catalyzing event was not a good, but problems nonetheless. Most obvious example of this is the fact that our 80s support for the mujahedeen in Afghanistan indirectly led to 9/11 and imperial overreach in Iraq. Doesn't mean it was not the right decision in that time frame, but they're always complicating factors if you stretch out your timeline long enough
Yeah I don’t see any way we don’t respond militarily if he nukes Kiev. Now if he nukes somewhere in Russia? Who knows.
Russain forces are choosing to not attack the approaching Wagner forces. I would think/hope the same might happen with an order to launch nukes. Think Stanislov Petrov stuff.
The problem for Russia is, who is going to out this down? Are soldiers really gonna side with Putin to stop the one guy trying to save them from useless deaths in a useless war?
The Geopolitical implications are staggering. If Putin falls who will lead the GOP? Also bad news for Trump as the pee tapes and array of stories about his treason will finally come to light…
Put it down? In Russia, this is considered entertainment. Everyone is gathered round their 12" black-and-white televisions, roasting acorns and eating grass soup. It's election season, baby ! ! ! There are two ways to elect a president in Russia. The normal way is to wait for the president to die, and then start arguing over who will succeed him. Angry power brokers decide behind closed doors, and then they anoint the new leader. Later they have a ballot process with one name on the ballot to confirm the decision. And then there is the other way to hold an election, when the person in power refuses to die, and someone else thinks they would make a good president. This is what's going on right now. The Russian army had their chance to put an end to this in Rostov, and they did not act. They may be as unhappy about the mismanagement of the war as Prigo is. They didn't dare make the first move because the other generals would not let one of their own take over the country without getting their permission and support first (and it would take a decade to decide which general would get the position). Prigo is an outsider, AND the other generals are afraid of him because he knows how to fight. This would be a good time to be a vodka salesman in Moscow right now. Or an acorn salesman.
It’s not like Prigozhin is a good guy. I’d probably assume he would not double down on the Ukraine invasion (esp if there is substantial lost ground caused by the coup/civil strife), but even that is far from 100%, considering his main beef w/the Kremlin seems to be the lack of supplies to slaughter Ukranians at a faster rate. If this guy rises to power Russia is still a criminal gangster state, he is no reformer. The best case might be that Putin takes him out and then Putin also falls. At least then there is a window for a reformer or a Navalny type to step in.
Wagner units have been in Moscow oblast for at least a couple of hours, but still have not penetrated city limits of Moscow proper. Very decent chance Vladimir Putin has already lost control of Russia and the rest is just a formality.
Based on what I’m seeing, I would give the Prigozhin coup decent odds at succeeding. That’s ominous for the world.
