I really wish people would stop talking about how many men Russia are losing, for multiple reasons. Their ability to replace is much greater than Ukraine. Most of what they’ve lost were convicts. The Russian government obviously doesn’t bat an eye at the losses. Lastly, but definitely not least, it’s likely Ukraine is losing just as many men, possibly more and they don’t have the replacement capacity Russia has. Their country is also being decimated. The Russian soldiers won’t be returning home to an unmitigated disaster. And generally speaking, I’m not in favor of celebrating deaths of thousands of people. Especially, as many of them are being lied to and have no control over how they’re being used on the battlefield. Many are there out of fear.
Okay cheerleader. I think I led with the people who have fled Russia who are young and educated. You go ahead and keep rooting for the side of evil. You mention that russias tiny economy is not being hurt while Ukraines is getting decimated but gloss over that the us and Europe have given almost the entire Russian economies output in aid to Ukraine. When the counter attack really starts and the Ukrainians roll thru the Russian lines like wet toilet paper what are you going to say then?
I have an awful lot of trouble believing anything he says. He is in the early stages of civil war, and everything he says and does has multipurpose.
This is really a bizarre take, particularly considering that one of the main true reasons Russia wanted Ukraine was Ukraine’s natural resources. And as for production, Russia is not known anywhere in the globe for the quality of its production of almost anything (save vodka). That’s why Russians always want Western goods of every kind.
I understand what you mean, but Russian casualties are a key metric to this war. The “scoreboard” is different for Russia than that it is for Ukraine. The Russian scoreboard is strictly in terms of ground gained, and Russia only “wins” if it either captures all of the ground or forces an unequal peace where it ends the war with more ground than with which it started. Russia has apparently given up on the possibility of the first and is leveraging its hopes on the second. Ukraine’s scoreboard is not strictly tied to terrain, though that still matters. Its score goes up with Russian casualties mainly because it simply cannot win by capturing even all of the ground. Even if Russia were to withdraw from all of Ukraine and continue the war from Russia this situation is not sustainable for Ukraine indefinitely. Ukraine cannot take the war into Russia in any meaningful way, even if it had the means and will (the West would discontinue support), so Russia would perpetually have the strategic initiative to attack Ukraine. Therefore, the only hope for long-term conflict resolution is Russian internal change (which could take several forms, not necessarily revolution), and the primary means for that change is Russian casualties. You are correct that physically Russia can replace those casualties indefinitely, but that was also true in 1903, 1916, and 1985. It was also true for the U.S. in Vietnam; physically, we could have sustained that casualty rate for another decade, easily. Now it’s absolutely true that Russia, as an autocracy, is less vulnerable to the whims of its people than a representative republic with political parties that exploit foreign wars for domestic advantage, but Russia is also not immune to the pressure of its population as in the years I listed above. So, yes, I will unabashedly keep cheering for Ukraine to run up the score, and I will keep hoping that someday, somehow I am ordered to be a part of contributing to that score, directly or indirectly.
NO SIR UFTAIPAN! - Your job is to get those defenses in Taiwan ready to repel Chinese aggression!!!! Get that shovel working on some sandbags!!!!!! Just kidding with you of course. Need the big offensive to get going and give Mr. Putin some real headaches! Great post as always.
It sounds like you're listing reasons why their economy is not struggling as much as anticipated. I mean, most economies, particularly in Europe, is struggling. The goal as well as the widely predicted result was a Russian economic collapse under the weight of unprecedented sanctions by the wealthiest and most powerful nations in the world, not just "struggling". From a quick Ukrainian collapse to a quick Russian collapse, I think a lot of assumptions from the early stages of the war need to be re-assessed.
See how you used the word "want". No, the Russians are not good at producing what people "want". They are, however, good at producing what people "need", which I specifically mentioned as food and oil/gas in my "bizarre take" which you didn't seem to read.
An interesting article where a Russian soldier claims that Wagner mercenaries were routinely kidnapping (and sometimes torturing) Russian regular army troops. They would frequently trade their captives for ammunition or force them into front-line fighting. Russian Fighters Are ‘Kidnapping and Torturing’ Other Russian Fighters Allow me to try to channel our resident comrade's response: Maybe our resident U.S. military experts can state whether branches of the U.S. services routinely kidnap members of other services to get what they want. I'm guessing the answer is no. That means that Russia is special. They've developed some cutting-edge new strategies for warfare. What an advanced country!
You said “produce”. They have certain natural raw materials that people need. Good for them. But that’s not “production” in the sense of “manufacturing,” which is vital to long term war effort and survival.
Agree. Russia is a gas station/produce stand. They are certainly not a manufacturing center of desirable goods.
Rare are wars won because one side ran out of men, it doesn't happen very often even for individual battles. They're typically won when the morale is broken on one side. This is why Putin has been relying so much on Wagner convicts and has refrained from larger mobilizations. It's just a misunderstanding then. I certainly didn't mean manufacturing. I mean, what word would you use for food/oil? Oil production, grain production, these phrases seem to roll off the tongue pretty well.
Tough day for Ukraine, I'm watching Denys Davydov right now - Ukrainian War Podcaster - Sadly an armored column of Leopards and personal carriers (not Bradley's, M113s I think), got pulverized by Russian artillery. Significant damage, from what I could tell at least a dozen, maybe 18, damaged or destroyed. Russians released drone footage of a drone catching the column in daylight, going down a narrow dirt road, in an open field, the fields are mined on each side of the road. AND Unbelievably in a TIGHT formation, half a tank length maybe. Artillery man's dream. And I'm not sure of the full scale of it either. The Podcaster wants whomever ordered that formation arrested and brought up on charges. While it is not unexpected to have units damaged when headed to the front, this stinks of gross negligence.
