So you have never been wrong on any subject? You are saying the US has no national interest in supporting Ukraine. That is true for those whose support for Trump exceeds their desire for continuance of US democratic traditions. The opposition really comes down to: - Russia likes Trump, Trump likes Russia, then Russia not that bad - Democrats don’t like Russia, then Russia not that bad - Ukraine / Zelenskyy didn’t support Trump’s efforts to provide baggage on Hunter or Joe Biden, or Hillary Clinton = Ukraine bad - Trump impeached for his dealings with Zelenski, therefore Ukraine bad.
It's also a matter of choosing the best option. Of course it'd be great if Ukraine wins, joins EU/NATO, and Putin gets ousted, but what if what we're willing to invest into it isn't able to make it happen, then we would've just wasted a lot of resources on a failed adventure, as is the case with many of our other failed adventures. While it's easy to blame Russia for spreading authoritarian populism, have you looked at what's happening in Poland, the most staunchly anti-Russia state in Europe? Poland Rejects E.U. Ruling, Restarting a European Feud Half a million march in Warsaw against Poland’s ruling party The converse also appears to be true for many democrats. That is, Russia likes Trump, Trump likes Russia, then Russia is bad, etc. I'm a moderate democrat who voted for Biden last election and will again next year, but I don't approve of our current course of action in Ukraine. I think we need to either step up our investment in Ukraine big time or cut our losses. The small rounds of hodge-podge support we've been giving to Ukraine just ensures a slow bleed. That may be fine if our primary adversary in the world is Russia, but it's not.
Hey, got news for you, this has nothing to do with Trump or Biden. I posted a thread about Trump's "love letters" to Putin. Nobody could give me any tangible asset or favor Trump ever did for Russia during his 4 years of presidency. But, he did do some things that Putin wasn't fond of. Like the military exercises in the Baltics, the redeployment of American soldiers to Poland, the starting of military aid to Ukraine and the denying Russia their Nordstream 2 pipeline to Germany. Some may even argue those were provocations, but what Trump did with respect to Russia was at least in a show of strength, unlike Biden. As I have been saying, pretty much everything Biden has done over the course of the past 10+ years with respect to Ukraine has backfired, which is why none of us should bank on the fact this war will miraculously liberate all of Ukraine's territorial losses.
Completely agree with the bolded, but as you allude to later, that's probably not going to happen with the current trajectory of limited weapons shipments. The war hawks love to talk about the new toys we're providing Ukraine, but as you know, Ukraine does not have their own war machine. They're completely reliant upon outside help with weaponry they are having to be trained on how to use. The US is not going to go much beyond what we're already providing due to the increased inherent risk of doing so.
Germany's Rheinmetall is cranking out tank shells, quadrupling its normal production with plans for further expansion. German arms maker guns for rapid production as Ukraine war rages
When this war started, I think a lot of people looked back at Romney’s words and thought they were prescient. Obama was perhaps too dismissive, but when you look at Russia’s weakness - Obama’s “gas station with nukes” wasn’t too far off either. In fact, Russia’s military looks entirely inept and undisciplined. Their equipment is rotten. So in the end, neither man was entirely correct. Russia was still a threat as Romney said. But the #1 threat? If Obama’s point was China is the greater threat that was probably true then and still today. What we are seeing is mostly due to Putin’s insane ambitions. Ambitions which didn’t match their capability. Obama’s comment is kind of like his calling ISIS the JV team. Obviously dumb with the benefit of hindsight. But in that exchange, I’m not certain Romney was predicting Putin would go off the rails and create a quagmire, unless he had some insight into Putin’s psychology. I think he was just generally referring to their gangster statism and lack of rule of law compared even to doing business in China.
Now that it’s a quagmire, stuff like this is why I just don’t understand those who think we (the U.S. and Europe collectively) should pull back in any way to let Ukraine fall. Russia would be the 4th largest U.S. state in terms of GDP. They have the whole of Europe united against them, many also with larger individual economies. If it comes down to economic production, it is a war Russia simply cannot win. The only thing they had were the conscripts to send aimlessly into the meat grinder (which can only go on for so long before the people get pissed, or you just run out of people to sacrifice). While some decisive losses could hurt Ukraine, the invaders are clearly at an disadvantage. Option 2 would be threats of nukes - which would probably be global suicide. At some point Ukraine may even be at a military advantage (aside from the nukes, or capability to launch strikes deeper into Russia). At the very least Ukraine’s defenses have set up a stalemate. It just seems like Ukraine’s military is building faster than Russia, and that’s with the west slow rolling some of the gear.
If Ukraine can gain an advantage (not even a decisive advantage) in the air domain — which was an unthinkable concept at the beginning of the war — then I believe the wheels will start coming off the Russian expeditionary force. Metaphorically speaking, I mean. I understand that their logistics and maintenance are already so poor that literal wheels have been coming off for a while.
Wagner chief claims that UK troops have broken thru lines Prigozhin demands full mobilization as he tells Putin Ukraine defence has 'broken through' (msn.com) Prigozhin said several areas on the eastern front had already been breached as Ukraine's defense forces continue their advance. He said: "Near Bakhmut in three places, in Toretsk there is a large accumulation, and soon they will begin to cut Kurdyumovka and Ozaryanovka. The Belgorod region is bursting at the seams. "In Zaporizhzhia, they lost the most serious settlement. Now they will hit the north and south in the Donetsk direction and there will be no time. Aviation will not save [the situation]."
If that’s true, then why would Russia let this guy keep speaking? I’ll hold off on popping the champagne bottle until the satellite imagery shows Bakhmut fully encircled. Note: No matter how many times I see you refer to Ukraine as “UK,” I still react with a start and say, “The British did what?!”
Probably because with the apparent state of Russia’s “regular” military, the war is over without Wagner. Can’t silence the only guy keeping it from total collapse. Could also be some weird act, which isn’t apparent. Otherwise will be interesting on that guys return to Moscow, better not drink the tea anyway. Ditto. I had to do a double take.
I think this war is a good lesson on why GDP is not always a great measure of national strength. Russia's GDP is based on producing real things, things that people need (e.g. oil/gas, grains), while a lot of the West's GDP comes from producing things that people want, oftentimes in the form of services. The collective West has levied unprecedented sanctions on Russia for over a year now. If the same sanctions were applied to a services based economy of comparable size, say the UK, it would've collapsed long ago. Russia suffered a measly GDP drop of ~2% last year. Services have high margins and can employ a lot of people, as what people want is essentially infinite in both quantity and quality. The ability of the service economy to generate a lot of high-paying jobs is why advanced economies rely on services to generate most of its GDP. However, when push comes to shove, they can be given up without a significant decrease in QOL. You can live just fine without a $10k family vacation to France, but take $10k worth of food or gas away from your family and you'll struggle to survive. You can replace a Mercedes or an iPhone with a Chery or a Xiaomi and be just as productive.
Russia is doing as well as it is because it is energy self-sufficient, food self-sufficient, they took steps to isolate their economy from sanctions and they have been artificially propping up the Ruble since sanctions were imposed. Their economy is struggling and it will get worse.
Agreed. Their demographics are so bad - decline is inevitable barring some miracle reversal - or maybe - imperial conquest of a large and populous nation.
Russia HAS “sanctioned” the west though. It’s not like sanctions only go one direction. It’s just that Russia and its puny economy didn’t have economic levers to pull. Russia is not economically capable of collapsing UK or US economies based on sanctions. In theory China could get closer to the scale of damage you are talking about (in a way we got a taste of it from China’s own self-imposed Covid imposed restrictions, which disrupted global supply chains). Obviously at some level Russia’s status as an energy producer and major food exporter does give them some degree of insulation, but it’s mostly from internal strife that economic sanctions would otherwise cause if there were energy shortages and food shortages. In terms of being able to support a war effort, that type of production is still only as good as its value in trade just as any other type of economic activity. What it can acquire in technology, hardware, chips, etc.
Russia even if they somehow win this war is losing big in this adventure. How many young people have left? How many young men have died? With a non replacement birth rate any numbers here is too many.
