An unnamed troll already tried the Nazi line very early on in this thread. It didn’t work out for him (actually none of it worked for him) - most people ignore him either actively or passively. This is pretty tired stuff and you’re going to end up in the same place. Before you do try some new material. Blame it on Soros the new world order or dig deep and bring up the Trilateral Commission. We demand to be entertained!
A couple hundred tanks aren't gonna turn the tide of the war. For one, the vast majority of tank kills in this war is from artillery. Tank-tank battles are rare, so the superiority of Western tanks are not gonna fully shine. Also, tanks have significant logistical footprint, and the fact that not only a large part of the logistic train is outside of Ukraine, but that they're a hodge-podge mix of tanks from various nations, will significantly decrease their effectiveness. Most likely what will happen if Ukraine tries to retake Mariupol or Crimea is that the counter offensive will push the Russians back at wherever the attack is, then Ukraine will have trouble exploiting the breakthrough due to insufficient troops and logistical support. Then the Russians will counterattack, and we'll end up without much significant movement from the status quo. Now, both sides probably realize this. The Russians are likely hoping that if they can crush the Ukrainian offensive that morale will collapse in Ukraine and especially the West, so they're probably gonna sit back and play defense. The Ukrainians will probably realize that achieving a substantial victory, e.g. cutting off the land bridge to Crimea, is not realistic due to the amount of Russian defenses built up there, and will instead try to achieve a symbolic victory by e.g. retaking Bakhmut. This can ensure continued Western support, and possibly drive a wedge between Wagner and the Russian regulars as Prigozhin will surely launch a blame game about how he took Bakhmut, warned about the Ukrainian offensive there, and the Russian regulars still lost it. Wars aren't always won by the stronger military. Ukraine can outmaneuver Russia without winning decisive battles or achieving strategic victories on the battlefield, but instead winning strategic battles off of it. Wars, after all, are just tools to achieve political aims. There's no reason why other political tools are any less potent when the shooting starts.
Wow. 1) How bad does life in Cuba have to be if you're willing to sign up for a tour of duty fighting in Ukraine in exchange for citizenship in an international pariah and dumpster fire of a country? 2) Do Cubans get any non-Russian news about how the war is going? 3) Do Cubans know about this thing called "winter"? I'm not sure they do. "We didn't bring any long pants--what do we do?" Cuban immigrants are joining the Russian army to fight in Ukraine in exchange for citizenship, a report says They might really like the big number on the rubles, and think they're getting rich, if they have difficulty converting the numbers into their own currency.
As a natural contrarian, I tend to ask myself a simple question when presented information….” What if the opposite is true “. Then rethink and test my position. If the goal is a demilitarized Ukraine, a quick victory doesn’t provide that. Had they taken Kyiv quickly they end up with a 20 year counter-insurgency campaign. By grinding out this now war of attrition, they can successfully demilitarize Ukraine via killing or wounding the majority of fighting age males. Not saying this was planned but as this thing grinds out, that is what is happening.
the nations supporting Ukraine aren't sending soldiers. Those guns don't fire themselves. as noted elsewhere, one of Ukraine's biggest disadvantages is sheer number of fighters.
But the goal isn’t a “demilitarized” Ukraine. It’s a “vassalized” Ukraine. What you’re describing does not serve any of Russia’s interests.
don’t disagree. Find sometimes taking an alternative viewpoint and discussing different possibilities helps discover weaknesses in my personal strategy. Let’s wait and see if they shape an exit plan not too dissimilar to what I described. A demilitarized Ukraine as a buffer to NATO forces
Putin has surrounded himself with yes men who tell him what he wants to hear. He believed that the majority of Ukranians wanted to be in the soviet sphere. Demilitarization wasn't the goal, subjugation was
Unless Russia wants to level all of Ukraine to the ground and depopulate it, as long as there is a Ukrainian population there, Russia will continue to suffer a toll as insurgents pick off occupiers. It will never stop. This will never turn out well for Russia.
interesting perspective...have read this elsewhere too that Wagner pulling out of Bakhmut is the beginning of them challenging Putin and his Kremlin supporters. Former Russian commander in Ukraine says Putin could be overthrown by the Wagner mercenary army (msn.com) Vladimir Putin could be ousted by Russia's private military group, the Wagner army, according to Igor Girkin, a former Federal Security Service officer who once led a group of Russian militants in Donetsk. Girkin, who is also known by his alias "Strelkov" and is now a prominent war blogger , said that Wagner's chief Yevgeny Prigozhin could overthrow the Russian president, the Daily Mail reported. "A coup attempt has been declared...What will happen next, I don't know, especially as Wagner is urgently withdrawn to rear bases...The danger of a looming coup is clear." Prigozhin, who was once close with Putin, has in recent months repeatedly criticised Russian defense ministry. Last week he said that Ukraine has gained more troops and more weapons since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Are top Russians already moving to get rid of Putin? (msn.com) War analyst Igor Strelkov, the ex-defence minister of Donetsk People’s Republic has claimed the ‘smuta’ – pre-revolutionary turmoil – has already started. He said the Wagner mercenary army is pulling out of the war zone around Bakhmut, and could be used to help oust the dictator from within his circle. The leader of the group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is also acting with unidentified figures inside Putin’s power structures, Strelkov alleged. One serious blow by Ukraine in the war could trigger changes, forecast Strelkov who has 800,000 Telegram followers including many mid-ranking Russian soldiers. ’No later than late summer the internal political situation in the country might change beyond recognition,’ he said. ’Prigozhin has declared war on part of the military and state elite.
So Russia spent and Ukraine wiped out all of Russia's "Navy Seal" equivalents in a month? Do you really believe that? You will believe anything those propaganda sites feed you and that's my issue. Think it through. Does it really make sense Putin threw all of his special ops into one basket at one time and they were all wiped out by an undermanned Ukrainian army who was in a defensive posture at the time...in one month? Do you have anything other than a propaganda website that proves Ukraine wiped out all of Russian specials ops in a month? Based on what indications?? The "very successful counter-offensive" that was sure to take place in the spring that has been delayed, but you can bet your life savings on its success? You're just blowing smoke. You don't even know what the counteroffensive will consist of. It hasn't even begun. It's been delayed, but you just know it will be very successful. What are the indicators that lead you to believe this? You're just copying and pasting from propaganda sites. We're fighting the war. It's called a proxy war and if Ukraine fails, whether you agree with it or not, it will be a political disaster for Biden. At least with Iraq, Bush could say "we took out Saddam." Biden would have invested hundreds of billions in lethal aid in a war lost. It would absolutely be 100% a disaster for him stateside if Ukraine loses the war. Whether you like it or not, he would take a major hit for it and rightfully so.
Anybody claiming a Ukrainian defeat wouldn't be a foreign policy disaster for Biden is simply whistling past the graveyard.
Good primer on the Storm Shadow: Ukraine is getting the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile, and that's raising a whole lot of questions about MTCR guidelines Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the history of the Missile Technology Control Regime, what it was meant to originally address, and the whole host of problems associated with figuring out what a destabilizing cruise missile really looks like. The CAT I is Out of the Bag - Arms Control Wonk
For this Western observer Prigozhin's comments seem very far off base for a "regular" Putin lackey. "P" has repeaedly leveled criticisms at Russia's formal military establishment and by inference, at Putin himself. Explosions are being documented at several locations within Russia and of course the recent small scale action in Russia seemed to catch the Kremlin by surprise. Some noise is coming out of Russia's many districts that suggest dissatisfaction with the Kremlin. While the West waits with it's collective breath being "held", it does seem to this observer that Russia is vulnerable to a significant Ukranian breakthrough. I think, for those that support Ukraine, that the hope is the offensive will be significant enough to force the conflicted parties to the negotiating table.
Drones hit residential apartment buildings in Moscow. It’s heating up……. But can’t blame Ukraine for doing it. Turnabout is more than fair play.
Well we know the far right wing is pulling for that to happen! But I don’t see it. Also a bit rich for literally anyone still around who pumped the Iraq War invasion to even try that nonsensical point of view. Biden has taken the the best position for the U.S. Keep U.S. troops out. Do what we can to help Ukraine in other ways. Nobody, not even the admin, expected Ukraine to stand for more than a few months (if not weeks), let alone seem to have a shot at this. Even the U.S. govt was literally suggesting to evacuate Zelensky in the first week. Thinking he’d rule in absentia while an insurgency took potshots against occupying Russian troops. There is no outcome where this can be a political disaster given the original expectation. Of course that won’t stop the fake-patriots from making up their un-American narratives so as to score partisan points. It’s what they do.
Biden is hardly doing what we can. We can do so much more. This is a golden opportunity that this administration is not seizing. If Russia wins and somehow comes out of this stronger, this will undoubtedly be viewed by the entire free world as a collosal miss.
