It's not like previous Russian social, political, or economic changes ever involved violence. There's a reverence for human life built in.
Yes, it is. It can stop being horrible whenever Russia wants. They can have safe passage right back to Russia.
I understand. I probably need to exercise the part of my heart that holds empathy for the enemy, and I promise to do it in earnest once Russia loses.
It's a good move really. Ukrainian military prowess was never gonna be enough, continued support from the West is needed. How do you ensure continued Western support? Optics. Zelensky as an actor is the perfect Ukrainian leader for that role. For Russia, they can't fight the optics. Their objective is to make it costly enough for the West so that it outweighs optics. As such, they try to drain Ukraine's supply of Western equipment as fast as possible on the battlefield, and undermine the Western economy as much as possible outside the battlefield. The wildcard in all this IMO is gonna be China. Right now they're content to just replace all the Western companies that have pulled out of Russia and gobbling up all the Russian resources on the cheap. If the West continues to decouple from China and they continue to dedollarize their trade, will they ever start feeling like they have more to gain by sending military aid to Russia? Or will they profit enough from the current arrangement to undermine the West so much that we start suing for peace? The only way for them to lose is for Russia to be decisively defeated, which doesn't seem likely right now as the Ruble is as strong as before the war and the Russian GDP is set to return to pre-war levels as well by next year.
Indeed, Ukraine can only fight a PR war for its Western audience. Borel has admitted that Ukraine would fall apart in days absent Western aid. And Russia can only keep killing Ukrainians. And is resolved to do so. China ? I believe it’s done with the US. Biden ? He’s demented and is surrounded by fanatics and ideologues who don’t know what to do except escalate. Each escalation has been the “game changer” that hasn’t changed the game, that is, changed the course of the war. They can only back down or escalate further. They simply cannot do the former so the latter is the only option. Kick the can down the road, much to the detriment of the fodder that is the Ukrainian army.
Not quite. There’s a potentially even bigger win for China in the case of Russian collapse. China, too, wants to play that game of “That used to be mine, and I want it back.” Right now the biggest holder of lands that China considers to be Chinese is Russia. Sure, a year and half ago “liberating” Taiwan seemed more of a bird in hand (once Russia completed its conquest of Ukraine no later than May of 2022, of course). But now “liberating” Outer Manchuria, the much bigger prize, might just be possible two generations earlier than previously thought. So supporting Russia looks more and more like a win-win. And the longer and bloodier the struggle, the better.
China would sure like having greater Manchuria, even greater Mongolia back, but don't kid yourself about its strategic significance vis-a-vis Taiwan. Almost all of China's trade is through the SCS, and most of its most prosperous cities are in the south as well, Taiwan is a far more strategic location. In addition, with the increasing political and economic alignment between Russia and China, there's really no need for China to take over greater Manchuria. It's like how we have no need to take over Canada to access all the geopolitical and resource advantages Canada may provide.
Well, they can’t have Taiwan. But I would sure be willing to look the other way if they sent “peacekeepers” to parts of present-day Russia.
So you don't recognize Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014? Or was that more of a flower-distributing parade to you instead of a military action? Did you come out of your long-term coma between 2014 and 2022? You can't recognize the possibility that this was in Putin's master plan 20 years ago or more? You can't understand the implications of Putin claiming that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989-90 was "the worst tragedy of the 20th Century" (which is saying a lot, since WWI and WWII were fairly tragic)? This doesn't seem to you to be a first step in the reconstitution of the Soviet Union? Or are you blind to all of that?
Some nice discussion on how Ukraine's performance with the Patriot has surprised even the U.S. military. Included is information about how the Saudis, with their 200 (!) Patriot systems, sometimes have struggled shooting down less-capable missiles from Yemen. Apparently, this war has shot Russian weapons systems sales all to hell with their reputation for quality being obliterated. Ukrainian air defense uses Patriot systems in ways that surprised the US – expert interview
Speaking of the middle east (wait for it), I was surprised recently (in the last couple days) on a flight back from there that the Emirates Airline flight flew over the Caspian Sea and then Russia. We passed just east of Moscow and exited through Finland. On the flight over, the flight computer said we were going straight through Ukraine. Fortunately, the pilot diverted once we got over the Atlantic and flew over Madrid and Israel. So I thought we might take a similar route back, even though it would be even more costly on the fuel (both flights were an A-380) than the first one. A return flight over Spain would have the tropical bulge of the earth to contend with, and the jet stream. By the way, if anyone was wondering if I saw any clear signs of hope in Russia, I did not. A few trees and some lakes, and that's it.
Apparently, Russia installs Ironia ("Irony") advanced optical surveillance systems on top of buildings, with no means of defense. Ukraine blew one up with a drone. Oh, the irony! How ironic that Russia has no equivalent to the Patriot System, and their electronic warfare defense system did not save this system.
Doubly ironic, when you consider that the Russian military has at least twice as many known Nazis as Ukraine.
