This sounds like a nice way of saying Ukraine lost Bakhmut, so they retreated and here we are. Not that a Russian victory in Bakhmut is impressive after 15+ months of war. It looks to me like Putin is happy to play the stalemate with the occasional win here and there.
if they close the loop and seal off the town, Bakhmut will become a graveyard for Wagner, one they lost of lot of lives to get to. will there be a rapid retreat if the loop is closing or will they stay and fight?
I bet they would retreat if Ukrainian forces were close to sealing off the town. Based on some of the posts here a few weeks ago, Wagner is in defiance of Putin. So I think they would retreat in the name of self-preservation, especially if that were true. On a side note, I get the feeling the Ukrainian counteroffensive won't come to fruition until the fall, if it ever does.
Saw elsewhere that Wagner is going to hand Bakhmut off to the Russian army on the 25th. If this is true I think it’s because Wagner doesn’t want to be in that position. It also likely means Ukraine will retake Bakhmut at some point this summer.
It's common practice for a unit to rotate out after an exhausting fight. The attacks on the flank were probably to ensure an orderly withdrawal by the remaining Ukrainian forces in the city. It's just wide open fields immediately north and south of the city, not really defensible positions. I doubt Ukraine will try to hold those positions without having a force in the city to hold the Russians there. It'd be as stupid as the Russians earlier in the war when they tried to bypass cities and flank around them. Bakhmut is over. Ukraine will likely withdraw to the next line of defense, while Russia will have to lick their wounds too. This war is moving at a glacial speed after the initial Russian advances and the subsequent Ukrainian counterattack.
I don’t know if it’s true but I thought reports were that Ukraine holds the major supply lines to the city?
What’s the difference between God and Zelensky ? God is everywhere and Zelensky is everywhere but Ukraine.
Probably just the ones the west of the city. If Ukraine had the whole thing isolated, then it would be huge news.
From the west side, which connects to Ukraine-held territories. They were either controlled or severely threatened by the Russians before the counterattack, but now they're relatively safe. The eastern routes are all under Russian control.
Ukr leaders saying Wagner claimed victory so that they can now retreat and say they won. British and french long range missiles are arriving in Ukraine and will be used to reach further behind the lines to degrade logistics before they do anything in earnest. destroy the ammo and fuel depots or push them back 150 miles and russia cannot keep up the artillery pounding that threatens the armored vehicles/tanks Russia adapted to the game-changing HIMARS, but Ukraine's new Storm Shadow missiles could put the fear back into its commanders, warfare experts say (yahoo.com) Introducing Storm Shadow to the battlefield will resolve "serious tactical challenges" that Ukraine currently faces, Watling wrote. Its warhead is designed to penetrate hardened targets and its stealth features will help it avoid detection and interception. Barros said the implication is that Russia's tactic "will be reduced even further" because it will require the Russians to undertake even more stringent sustainment and protection measures to avoid the missile's long range. This means pushing ammunition depots and command and control efforts even deeper into occupied territory and away from the front lines. "It's just going to degrade the overall Russian war effort," Barros said. "The Ukrainians are very capable of making the Russians pay." Beyond forcing the Russians to once again try to figure out how to protect key positions from a long-range strike capability, Ukraine could use its Storm Shadow missiles to instill a fresh sense of fear into Moscow's commanders who previously thought they were out of range.
Interesting quote...please link to the site you saw this on. Thanks. I'm sure you know exactly where you saw it. SHare with us. Or can some internet sleuths find it on their own.
They do have ways to escalate without directly involving a NATO response, as we've had ways to escalate without involving a Russian nuclear response or general mobilization. Giving them F-16s would be one of those ways for us. For the Russians, it'd probably be attacks on critical infrastructure. They have, for example, refrained thus far from attacking the Ukrainian dams or electric transmission nodes. A few missiles toward the Kiyev dam would cause catastrophic losses of civilian life, not to mention cutting off most major roads and railways linking Eastern Ukraine from the west for a while. We could've sent F-16s long ago if we wanted to, but there's a reason we haven't until now. We're concerned that Russia could escalate too, and that we don't really have many other cards to play afterwards. We've already sent them the most advanced land-based weapons that we aren't afraid of falling into Russian hands, Naval assets are too vulnerable to Russian land-based systems, and after F-16s we would've sent them the most advanced aerial assets that we aren't afraid of falling into Russian/Chinese hands. After this, we can maybe send them some Apaches? I can't think of any other weapon system that we can send them that can make a difference and won't compromise our own national security.
I thought it was out of production already, which is at least partly because it's very cost inefficient. It's probably more cost effective to just give them range-limited Tomahawks.
No ATACMS are our most advanced long range missiles but US has refused to provide them to date. The Storm Shadow missiles are comparable but more is better. Five ironclad arguments why Storm Shadow missiles are better than ATACMS
I don’t think the first part is true, but they are indeed very expensive, and we don’t have a huge inventory of them. I’m not sure about the second, and I’m not sure they have the capability to launch Tomahawks as they do ATACMs. There might be surface option I’m not aware of, but I thought Tomahawks had to be launched from a sea or heavy bomber platform.
