War in Ukraine

Zelensky announces delay of offensive due to inefficient support, UK agrees to send long range air launched cruise missiles.

Smart man, casualty losses were too high without long range ability. Does Russia have legit missile defense capability?
Are airfields and munition depots first targets? Command and control?
Will the deployment be a tell?

155 mile range

Which planes to use for launch platforms?

UK sending Ukraine long-range cruise missiles

Ukraine says its counteroffensive now delayed; Britain says it's sent cruise missiles to Kyiv

 

Wonder how many "Storm Shadow" missles will be made available?

Ukraine seems to love to hit supply depots and the military logistics infrastructure of Russia. Storm Shadow seems perfect for that assignment. Interesting Ukraine has committed to NOT use them in traditional Russian teritorial bounderies.

Regarding the delay of the offensive............ true or Psy-Ops speak?

If Mr. "P" is right and Russian forces are retreating at the Brigade level one has to wonder if a reconnissiance in force is not worth the effort? Supposedly the boys in blue and yellow gained 2 kilometers of ground in the Bakhmut theater yesterday. This is not insignificant. Thats a huge territorial gain by the standards of advancement by either side over the last several months.

 

Actually, I’m not sure why Ukraine was advertising a counteroffensive in the first place. Do it or don’t do it. But I don’t think you tell the enemy what you’re planning unless it’s part of an information campaign.

 

I think surprise is important but I am not going to second guess anything Ukraine does. They are far exceeding my best hopes for them.

 

Can’t argue with that. So far most of what they have done has worked. Maybe there is another smart move here somewhere. History will tell.

 

Can there really be big surprises in modern ground warfare? If you mass troops 100 satellites will see it.
There is value however in sounding as if you’re on the front foot, or forcing the enemy to redeploy out of advantageous positions to cover an attack that may or may not come.

 

The short answer is yes. Even with modern technology, there are always methods to make the enemy look at your left fist while hiding your right. You cannot entirely hide that you’re going to do something, but you can demonstrate an intention to do one thing, compel a desired enemy reaction, then do something else.

Strategically, I would equate it to a play-action pass: we all know a play is coming (can’t hide that); the defense makes reasonable inferences based on the down, distance, formation, motion, etc; but ultimately it’s a gamble how to commit to the play.

 

Time to suspend all aid to south Africa.

South Africa loaded arms onto sanctioned Russian vessel, US ambassador tells local media | CNN

The US ambassador to South Africa on Thursday accused the South African government of delivering arms and ammunition to a sanctioned Russian cargo vessel late last year, local media said.

“Among the things we noted was the docking of the cargo ship in Simon’s Town naval base between the 6th to the 8th of December 2022, which we are confident uploaded weapons and ammunition onto that vessel in Simon’s Town as it made its way back to Russian,” Ambassador Reuben Brigety II told local media, including News24.com

 

Well, I agree. But it doesn’t brief well. The government of South Africa has been running afoul of a carefully constructed narrative for about 10 years now. Sanctioning them thusly would gravely fracture the left. From the perspective of wanting to keep the aid flowing, it might best to pointedly ignore South African perfidy for now to give the Administration time and space for an evenly more carefully constructed narrative on why we have to support South Africa no matter what after the war is over.

 

Swiss parliamentary panel seeks easing of export controls on weaponry

 

From the Ukraine Volunteer transcripts-

Just some notes on what I see around here away from the lines.
You notice it around here. Everyone is bone tired and sometimes their eyes look right through you ...emotionally dead and physically exhausted. But, after a few days away from the battles, they spark-up a bit, especially when there is talk of an offensive. Everybody is ready, even the ones who have turned so far inside they go a day or so without speaking when they first come out. They know what victory means. It is the only true avenue for their freedom.

You talk to guys in the assault units, the ones who see the real shit, and if they have it in them, they usually smile, talk about their hometown, maybe show you some pictures of a wife and kids that was taken in better times. If they don't have that smile in them, they have probably lost someone close to them, and are now here to battle for freedom, for their homeland's very existence, and not least, for revenge. They don't smile much. But, even they - maybe more so - are looking for the final bloody conflagration that will stun the Russians so hard and deep they have no choice but to slink behind their borders and wail at the injustice of the embarrassment of being stomped in the ground by those they had so much disrespect for them that they though prior to Kyiv, they could smash the whole country in a few days. No. They ran up against a fucking buzzsaw of death and destruction. Well, they are going to see that again, from a even more battle-hardened force, better equipped, even more motivated, and comfortbale seeing swollen Russians rotting into the dirt.

The downside is a decisive offensive requires a defendable supply chain, and enough men and materials and weapons to sustain it until the enemy is depleted to a degree they will no longer want to fight, or be capable of fighting. Sustaining that also needs advanced weaponry to kill sufficiently more of the enemy as compared to your own losses. To be honest, per the latter, I am not sure where we are . I fear we are not where we need to be to prevent suffering horrendous casualties in our own ranks.

 

The same way their media does, one would imagine.

 

The delay may also be useful to see what Russia does to prepare for the offensive. Apparently, the answer to that question is to disperse their forces across a wide area, which may or may not be the right answer. I would think a thin, long line of defense would be easier to penetrate, and might send all the nearby defenders into a rapid retreat in their panic.

Russia disperses its forces in Ukraine's south because they do not know where to expect a counteroffensive (yahoo.com)

 

fear, despair, vodka, nothing to lose?

 

Russia is floating a plan to build a village for conservative Americans who want to move to a 'Christian country' and are tired of liberal ideology in the US

don't let the door hit your ass on the way out

 

Mineral and rare earth resources!

 

LOL (OMG) This smacks of "Hustler" building a new Dorm Complex for Bob Jones University.