Concur. However, the likelihood builds at a slow burn every day that Russian bodies come home with no military gains to speak of and with no end in sight.
Every example you gave was over 60 years ago, at the tail end of the Colonial Era. We don't do those things anymore. As far as military bases, the ones we weren't invited to (or negotiated for) were ones that we took during or after a major war to establish or maintain the peace. After all, mismanagement of a conquered country after WWI led to WWII. And we typically do leave a country if they ask us to (see: Philippines).
All true. The only example of a base we’ve kept where a new regime wants us gone is Guantanamo, and there are some good political reasons for that, which neither party has seriously disputed for 60 years.
The US has vassals all over the world. Ask Ukrainians now if they think it’s done their country good.
I will go on record as predicting Russia to collapse again. It's been over 40 years since they collapsed the last time. That was long enough to unlearn the lessons of whether they should be winning through military conquest and intimidation or through economic competition. Most of the civilized and industrialized world is against Russia on their Ukrainian invasion, and is not only willing to giving up cheap oil to demonstrate that, but they are willing to send weapons to Ukraine. I think ultimately, Russia will be defeated in Ukraine, and Putin's government will either collapse or he'll be forcibly retired. The economy may or may not collapse with the government. It may depend on whether a moderate ascends to power after Putin goes.
Ukraine is still (mostly) free as of today. I am positive that Ukrainians would feel very grateful for the assistance and support. Trolls sometimes forget who started this war, or delude themselves into thinking that some third party country started it. I think if you asked Ukrainians now if the Russian invasion has done their country good, they would kick you in the head.
Turns out falling off balconies isn’t the only way to die in Russia. This one warms my heat, he was a bad guy. Being reported as likely russian internal resistance. Prominent Russian military blogger killed in St. Petersburg cafe blast | CNN A well-known Russian military blogger, Vladlen Tatarsky, was killed in an explosion at a cafe in St. Petersburg on Sunday, authorities said. Twenty-five other people were injured in the blast, 19 of whom were hospitalized, the city’s governor said. Investigators were questioning everyone who was inside the cafe, state media reported. An “explosive device” went off, causing part of the building’s facade to collapse, according to state news agency TASS, citing preliminary information. Authorities opened a murder investigation, but it was not immediately clear if Tatarsky was the intended target of the blast.
I agree with some of your logic, but I won’t go as far as to predict a collapse. The more likely outcome is a (relatively) bloodless transfer of power to another regime. Open revolution, of course, might later follow such a coup, but I do not believe that you will suddenly see the masses in the streets.
Cuba and all those uncashed checks. And free security for Gitmo. Does "bloodless" include falling out of a window or poisoning? Asking for a nervous "public figure."
Ukraine has conducted two assassinations on Russian soil; both of the targets were journalists. What does this tell us? (1) Their claim to embody "Western values" like freedom of speech is a farce. (2) Zelensky is afraid of retaliation from killing actual decision makers.
Very important to remember in the days ahead that I wrote relatively bloodless. But let’s define that. I say any fewer than 100 deaths in the execution of such a transfer of power would be relatively bloodless. I speak not to the method. Whether they jump from tall buildings, poison themselves, stick forks into electrical sockets, or steal heavy chains and try to swim the Volga matters naught to me.
