Truth now: Would you actually feel better with diplomatic cover? I wouldn’t. If I’m the ambassador, I am now sending all nonessential personnel out of the country, furloughing all Russian employees, and restricting remaining personnel to the embassy grounds. Only I, the ambassador, am going to approve outside trips, and I am only personally leaving the embassy to meet with the Foreign Minister or Putin himself. Anyone else comes to me.
Logistically, what about food and supplies? Rotating staff? Diplomatic pouches etc? Would seem tough to pull off.
And also, as I've said here a few times, they need people. Resources, territory, glory, rebuilding the USSR blah blah... Russia needs to shore up the demographic tragedy thats upon them and are attempting that through conquest. Conquer or wither and die, I suppose. For some reason, free trade and western relations aren't an option
Essential trips still have to happen. But everything goes through me, and all of my people are traveling in groups.
McDonalds is a high-profile company that cannot afford to be seen appearing to support a marauding, invading rogue nation like Russia. Smaller, lower-profile companies stayed in Russia longer, but are now getting out because the economics of trying to do business there have gotten much worse as the Russian economy falls apart.
Why the hell would Ukraine wait? They are kicking Russia's ass before they got their hands on modern (western) tanks. It's practically going to be a turkey shoot once the tanks start rolling against troops that are terrified of them. There are areas of Ukraine where Russian troops are not attacking because they are (very likely) short on ammunition after Ukraine blew up their ammunition storage facilities. Why let Russia resupply their troops with ammo? Wipe 'em out. Other areas, like Bahkmut, are short on experienced Russian troops after losing so many in the fighting there. Wipe 'em out.
If there is an advantage, press it. At the same time, don't overextend and open themselves up for getting outflanked by the russkies.
Well Chem, according to the head of Ukranian forces that scenario is rapidly approaching. Now hearing a mid April early May counter attack is a distinct possibility, with delays relating to spring rains a concern. Bad weather could postpone it to late May early June. I've seen some Polish TV showing some impressive Ukranian armored columns moving into positions. And of course there are significant reports of Russians evacuating in the Southern sector, even in the Crimea. Not so much military assets, rather bureaucrats, administrators and the Russian scum that occupied the region to steal assets and resources.
You are literally a trope a minute. Exactly the opposite of your assessments are closer to what’s happening. This not only according to Western sources not shot through with prior hatred for Russians, but also reading between the lines of US and Ukrainian assessments. They are in desperation mode.
U.S. General Mark Milley says that Bakhmut has turned into a "slaughter-fest" for Russian troops. Western officials estimate that Russia has had 20-30,000 casualties in the city. The battle for Bakhmut has turned into a 'slaughter-fest' for Russia, says top US general At the rate that Ukraine's troops are improving their fighting ability and Russian troops are improving their dying ability, this war may not last too much longer. No doubt, the Russian trolls are in desperation mode.
I would love for you to be right, but I don’t think Western tanks are going to be any kind of panacea. I believe they will help, but (absent nuclear weapons) decision on the ground is only going to come with decision in the air. And I just don’t see that happening unless Russia crosses a line that makes the West do more than just shake its fist. A stagnant war that bleeds Russia and turns up the temperature in Moscow is probably the best we can hope for.
You think Russia will attempt to increase (gain?) control of airspace should Ukrainian armor start pushing east? I get that combined arms are a must in a modern battlefield, but it seems the air has been somewhat ignored in this conflict, making it decidedly un-modern in feel. Honest question here. I was under the impression Russia wasn't pressing for air superiority after struggling mightily against shoulder mounted air defenses. I probably have that wrong...
No, I wasn’t suggesting that Russia will push harder in the air. They’ve gotten properly embarrassed to this point. No air superiority. Terrible kill ratio in air-to-air combat. Ukraine managing almost as many daily CAS sorties as Russia despite its numerical advantage. I mean, Russia’s signature victory in the air, for which they publicly awarded their pilots, was a “kill” against an unmanned, unarmed drone flying at a constant heading, airspeed, and altitude in international airspace. As a pilot, I’d rather hang myself in the shower than wear a decoration for that. But, you know, managed expectations. I don’t think Russia can afford another push in the air in terms of national pride. In particular, they can’t afford to let their Chinese or Indian allies know how far they’ve fallen behind in aviation technology. It’s bad enough that they know we know. I was referring to the possibility of Ukraine getting a decisive edge in the air either because we give them the first-line fighters (not F16s) or NATO dives in and completely flips the game. Neither of those scenarios are very likely, so I think a war that grinds down Russian national will is the best case scenario.
Gotcha. Yeah. I'd love to see them get air assets from the west and sweep Ivan out. Im holding hope that western tanks and apcs can be enough to break whats left of Russian will and see the upcoming counter through. Hope, and writing my congressman is about all I can do.
As I posted a month or so ago this war is a huge information and technology boost for western countries. Nothing beats seeing it play out in real life battles. Putin has exposed his military deficiencies. Hopefully this will hurt his arms sales to other countries. The biggest surprise to me is the use and value of drones at the current rate.
