War in Ukraine

I don't think it will take that long. Note that russian collaborators across occupied territories are leaving town. They have no faith that the russian lines are going to hold either

Russian authorities flee Ukraine amid fears of counteroffensive: Ukraine (newsweek.com)

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces on Monday reported that Kremlin-installed authorities in Kherson Oblast were fleeing the region in order to escape a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

In an update on Facebook, the General Staff wrote that "[d]ue to fears of de-occupation of Ukrainian territories," Moscow's officials in the Russian-occupied cities of Oleshka and Skadovsk in Kherson were departing for Crimea.

Kherson was one of four Ukrainian territories that Russian President Vladimir Putin illegitimately annexed in September after most of the province had fallen to his forces in the early months of the invasion. In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's military retook control of the city of Kherson in what was characterized as a major defeat for Russia, though settlements throughout the region remain occupied by Putin's troops.

The General Staff's message further noted that the Kremlin's proxy officials who had departed the Kherson cities had begun leaving for the Crimean cities of Bakhchysarai, Simferopol and Kerch on February 21

 

In the suburbs of Moscow, more relatives complain that the mobilised are tossed like cannon fodder (msn.com)

Relatives of the mobilised invaders from the Moscow Oblast recorded a video appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, in which they asked for the return of their sons and husbands from the assault units.

According to the women, their relatives were mobilised in September 2022. For the next three months, they were trained as gunners. At the end of December, the service members were sent to the combat zone in Ukraine, where they waited for another two months to be armed. After that, relatives say, the mobilised were verbally notified that they were now assault infantry, after which they were transferred to the front line.

The women ask to recall soldiers from the front and provide them with tools and ammunition. At the same time, as usual in such appeals, they do not see anything wrong with their relatives going to a foreign country to seize territory and kill people.

A video appeal of the mobilised from the 580th separate howitzer artillery division appeared online. They said they arrived in the so-called "DPR" on 31 December. On 1 March, they were announced to be seconded to the 114th Assault Infantry Regiment. On 9 March, the first 15 people were sent to the assault. In their appeal, the mobilised asked Putin to "understand this situation" and recall them from the front line.

 

I guess my just the sort of person who gets tired of getting my news from the same sources that lied to me the last time.

And the time before that.

And the time before that.

 

That’s how I would do it, too, to mitigate uprisings in my largest population centers. That should give them more time until either they run out of Siberians or the rest of the country puts it together that their lives are worth less.

 

Human Verification

It’s time to get out - even the Ukrainian soldiers are saying it’s time. Hope the leadership doesn’t let pride become an issue here

 

Russia loses 1,090 soldiers in reported deadliest day of war

Some insight into Ukraine’s attrition strategy. I remain skeptical about the numbers of KIA Ukraine is asserting. First, because they are very difficult to assess accurately. Second, because Ukraine has a couple of motivations to err on the high side. The numbers of tactical vehicles they assert destroyed is probably more accurate. If (key word) these numbers are close to being even half true, then Ukraine’s continued defense of Bakhmut makes more sense. Even so, they need to be prepared to pull out. Losing a major formation to encirclement would completely erase any benefit holding the city has given to this point.

 

I don’t have the facts that the decision makers have, but my instinct tells me your assessment is correct. As the maxim goes, you can always regain lost ground. You can never regain lost lives or lost time.

 

Even Ukraine acknowledges that Russia outguns it between 5 and 10 to one.

But magically Ukraine’s artillery is inflicting more casualties than Russia’s and a seriously depleted Wagner group is encircling and strangling Bakhmut.

 

My shocked face ...

Zelensky, not Putin, is increasingly threatened by the prospect of a palace coup

 

I think they saw a place where they could bleed Russia dry, even if it meant some losses on their side. If Russia was going to be dumb enough to keep throwing bodies and equipment at it, why leave?
My guess is that as long as they feel their last escape route is safe they will stay.

 

^ I see you.

 

It's just not sustainable if they are losing 200 men a day now. Even if Russia is losing 1000 a day.

 

Russia is losing over 1,000.

A month.

 

What ratio would be worth fighting for? If not Bakhmut, then where?

 

Bleed them, yes. But no one is bleeding Russia “dry.” The target audience here is the general public in Russia. Trying to run Russia out of young men is like trying to bail out a bathtub with a thimble.

 

I think the question is, how many available troops does Russia have right now?
We know their ultimate capacity is millions, but if this offensive weakens them across the larger front because it knocks out 10 percent of their current available troops, it might let Ukraine’s counteroffensive work, and then it’s worth it. That’s what I think Ukraine’s goal is.
And even if it doesn’t, it means Russia has to call up 20k more men to offset it, with even fewer supplies than the last group using shovels as weapons apparently. Plus what the reaction is at home when the next group is called up.

 

5-1 is great - but not if you’re losing that many people total a day. Plus everything I’ve read says that kd ratio is dropping every day they are attacked on 3 sides.
Ive also read their next defensive position is very favorable.

 

All great questions.

 

Ukraine ground forces commander Syrskyi says counter-offensive is not possible and that Bakhmut will be a fight to the last.

What a colossal waste. No wonder the US is losing interest and turning its attention to picking a fight with a China.

 

Russia will run out of adequate hardware before they run out of bodies.