War in Ukraine

Ukraine has this. Two months tops. Don’t worry, y’all.

 

Don’t be an ass. No one is saying that.

 

Someone actually did say that a few posts up, unless you have certain posters ignored.

 

I see some optimism that is not, in my opinion, supported by facts, but I don’t see him claiming Ukrainian victory in two months. At best, he’s claiming that Ukraine can turn the tide in a few months. I don’t agree with that, but even if true any kind of turning point would only precede many more months of hard fighting as things are presently playing out. Ukraine is holding on, which is more than anyone expected and all anyone can ask for. Realistically, victory for Ukraine is only going to come one of two ways: political collapse in Russia or, as Winston Churchill put it, “until, in God’s good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the Old.”

 

He spams the thread daily with the same type of sentiment. I don’t really care to argue the semantics of what he said. His overall message is unrealistic and that’s something you and I seem to agree on. He also began his post by calling anyone who thinks NATO might need to become directly involved on Ukraine’s behalf “neo-trolls.” So it looks by his definition, you’d be a neo-troll and I disagree with that characterization. I think you’re speaking rationally on the subject and one of the few here who are. Certain posters are trying to show how woke they are on a topic that has nothing to do with wokeness.

 

Human Verification

No big changes of note. I really wish Ukraine would just pull out of bakhmut now. Hope they have a good plan. Russia does believe a counter is coming but it seems early for that. Amazingly Ukraine made some advances towards svatove. Kind of amazing if true. Have to wonder if Russian lines are starting to weaken. One can only hope - but it seems early for that too.

 

How to sell the inevitable defeat ...

‘Little fissures’: The U.S.-Ukraine war unity is slowly cracking apart

 

I did not say that Ukraine would actually win in a few months. I said that they would start a counter-offensive in a few months, and that would lead to victory. I think in 12-18 months, Russia will be pushed out of Ukraine, if not defeated outright, as long as they continue to get support from the U.S. and Europe.

 

I was addressing our resident troll.

 

I hope you’re right, but I would not bet that way. At least not until Western support is significantly increased.

 

This is a best case scenario. I am hopeful that things are going to land near this but I am not confident of this.

 

I do believe Ukraine will attempt a counter offensive in the spring - I'm just not sure it will accomplish much. Russia is dug in - they might not be able to advance much - but I doubt they are going to give much ground, unless like I've said before, their lines collapse because of their own internal logistical struggles.

 

Fair enough, but geez, I ignored him/it months ago. Why are you all not? He's more than just a troll, if you know what I mean.

 

China is also the big wildcard. They could begin, at any time, sending lethal aid to Moscow. They've already agreed to do it, in principle, essentially. I feel like their "peace plan" offer was more of a "hey, we tried" faux offer than anything legitimate.

 

I know he crawled down the hole and shut the lid so he can’t see this. I agree with you him on how the war is going for Ukraine. I just disagree with him that Russians are evil. That makes me the resident troll.

 

Can you imagine how bad Bakhmut would be, for the Ukrainians, if Wagner wasn’t being forced to fight with shovels ?

 

Most of you have so been had ...

The ISW Analysis of the war is bleak for Russia. It fully ignores Russia’s stated goals, hammers home any Russian setbacks, and elevates minor Ukrainian wins. To the casual news consumer, Russia will lose if we in the west help just a bit more. How can anyone not want to help? We can easily crush Russia and save this shiny new democracy, with just a little more help.

Victoria's ISW Secret

 

Here is some more exciting news for Russia. They have been playing favorites with their troops, with soldiers from the far eastern provinces 30 TIMES as likely to die as troops from Moscow and St. Petersburg (as a percentage of the population). Apparently, when they need someone for a desperate charge up a hill with only a shovel and a pistol, they are looking for someone from an eastern province. At some point, these people will probably resent this treatment.

Also, none of the children of top Russian officials are known to serve in the Russian army, according to British intelligence research.

Mortality rate of Russian soldiers from east 30 times higher than in Moscow, St Petersburg

 

My prediction is not based on the number of weapons or soldiers that each side has, or even the advantages in technology and tactics that Ukraine has had and is developing. Those things are important, or course. My thinking is that Russia will struggle more and more with tremendous amounts of infighting going on within its unbelievably diverse military groups. And that is not diversity in a good way, as in people of different colors and backgrounds working together for a common cause. They have one group of convicts fighting as a death sentence, a group of Chechens occupying houses and looting (while refusing to fight), and at least two groups of regular army personnel (favored and unfavored, depending on which province they came from), with units unable or unwilling to work together even within their own category. Add in all of the almost completely untrained conscripts and difficulties supplying certain kinds of weapons and ammunition, and you're looking at a disaster in the making. That does not add up to a cohesive fighting force. That is why Russia cannot coordinate attacks or follow through on the occasional successes like Ukraine can.

I see Ukraine as having a major advantage in that soldiers seem to be generally fighting together as equals. They don't have a fraction of the infighting that the Russians have. Add in the motivation of fighting for their homeland and freedom, and there can be no doubt that they are a much more serious military.