Fascinating reading and insights as to why we’re here and where we are a year in ... Because Ukraine relies on foreign assistance to continue its war, it must constantly be in a performative mode and under pressure to deliver visible successes. This is why it is anticipated that Ukraine will use the vehicles currently being delivered to launch a counteroffensive against the land bridge to Crimea. It really has no choice in the matter. In contrast, Russia is under no intense time pressure except that which it imposes on itself, and this freedom of action gives it the luxury (so long as battlefield events do not interrupt it) of sorting out an organizational overhaul and resisting the temptation to move prematurely. Russo-Ukrainian War: Schrodinger’s Offensive
Appreciate your response. I would suggest that the Western media has obvious bias, and likes to send a steady stream of videos and information about the annhilation of Russian forces, and them running out of ammo, so I take the reports with a grain of salt. While this is probably true, IMO, Western pundits do not appreciate the willingness of Putin to do whatever it takes to "win" this thing, IMO, of course. Like past totalitarian maniacs, his ego and belief he has been "ordained", to accomplish this insanity, far outweighs life, human suffering, capital, economic growth, etc. Satisfying his "will" toward foreign policy is of course the greatest aspiration any Russian or for that matter, any human being, may aspire to. (In his twisted mind) These big set to battles could make or break an opponent. Perhaps uftaipan will weigh in. Is the scenerio that Ukraine is bleeding Russia to death true? Or is the scenerio that Russia is bleeding Ukraine to death the truth? We can't know unless we are there, boots on the ground participating. I hope NATO and the US does not sell out Ukraine with some back door negotiations with Russia. IMO it's gone too far. Too much death and destruction. This trial will be determined in blood and victory or defeat. I'm glad that Zelenski is sticking to "nothing short of Ski withdrawal from all Ukranian territory". he should, Ukraine should. Russia started this and just like the facist oppressors from Germany from 1939 - 1945, they deserve a hard reality for unprovoked and uncalled for aggression.
The affronted rapist accuses the victim of scratching at him. Kremlin accuses Ukraine of violent attack in western Russia
Probably for public consumption. Although I still think Russia whines too much. Aside: remember Russian mass rapes ? Zelensky fired the minister who propagated the narrative. Apparently some lies are too outlandish even for the Ukraine regime.
I know that many of the figures pushed here are propaganda. Namely that Russia have lost 200,000 soldiers in Ukraine in a year’s time. It makes it difficult, as someone who supports Ukraine’s independence, to take the thread seriously.
Outside of (maybe uftaipan?) I know of few contributors that have solid facts about the real situation.I only say that because of uftaipans military connection. Chem, VA, Gatr, many others have kept us informed with great links but I'm not sure anybody has a direct connection to the military or intelligence services. I do tend to believe in the accuracy of the Western press more than the Eastern Block simply because they cut heads off on that side if a strict party line information presentation is not adhered to. (Or a fall from a balcony). Reports leaking from the front do suggest a hard and bloody fight. What does seem quite true is that if this is the "Great Russian Offensive" of 2023, that Pukin was bragging about, so far, that offensive is stuck in the mud with little result. They have been unable to claim Bakhmut yet. Incredibly slow progress. Color me unimpressed so far.
it’s between 100 and 150K. There are numerous incident of 100’s of Russia’s taken of the battlefield permanently in a single blast or short firefight. In the last tank battle probably 600 tankies were BBQ’d last month. I haven’t heard 200K
Mediazona is a dissident group designated as a terrorist organization by the Kremlin ... Mediazona and BBC News Russian confirm that more than 15,000 Russian servicemen died in the full-scale war’s first year — Meduza
And that’s still the high end of estimates, mostly from Ukrainian sources. Our government estimates approximately 60K KIA. I have not heard anything from any source on the order of 200K.
Are we talking dead or also those who have been taken off the battlefield indefinitely due to injury and is that including the Wagner group? They’re particularly ineffective.
From the analysis in post #15601 ... At the peak, the first phase of the war probably saw no more than 80,000 regular Russian combat personnel in Ukraine, likely half of those serving on the contact lines. Me: but sure, let’s say 60,000 Russians dead.
60K KIA. I’ve been briefed on the unclassified estimate of wounded, but I can’t recall. There’s such a variation in what wounded means that it is not as useful of a statistic. It can mean anything from a minor shrapnel injury, treated and returned to duty, to so grievously and permanently disabled that they might as well be dead. Only Russia has any idea, and they aren’t saying, obviously.
Actually, unlike Ukraine, Russia is saying. August 24 they announced approx 5,900 dead. That would square with the dissident groups estimate of 15,000 now. Although the latter appears to includes Russian allies as well. In any case, you’re probably looking at a 10:1 kill ratio. Perhaps even higher.
60k KIA sounds more realistic, but the headline number being pushed is 200k. (lumping in minor shrapnel injuries with deaths, of course). See headline below. Article goes right into 200k. Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Tactics
That is true. And you can usually assume x2 to x3 seriously wounded for every KIA. The factor that might make that multiplication less reliable is the reportedly poor quality of Russia’s combat medical system. I’m hearing that many soldiers have died who would otherwise have lived if it had not been for technical incompetence, inadequate supplies, and failure to evacuate in a timely manner.
So assuming 2x to 3x wounded to kill ratio, substantially more Russian troops were killed and wounded than existed in theatre. It’s like Ukrainian missile math: we shout down 123 out of 100 Russian missiles and 50% of Kiev is in darkness.
Yep 60k dead out of 200k wounded feels about historically right. I think the bigger losses are from those who have left Russia. I have heard but can’t verify that a million or two have fled. Those who have left Russia are in their prime working years. Add these to an already below replacement birth rate and nothing good is coming for Russia.
