From today’s FT, how Western reportage is essentially Ukrainian tropes ... “Putin’s current fixation with continuing offensive operations around Bakhmut and elsewhere is contributing to Ukraine’s ability to maintain the military initiative in other parts of the theatre,” said the Institute for the Study of War.” Is it really a Putin fixation or is it just Russian opportunism ? If the aim of Russia is to destroy the Ukrainian army (and its mercenaries) why not smash the area that has become the fixation of Ukraine ? The longer Kyiv tries to defend Bakhmut the better. For Russia.
I do agree that Russia's supporters are overcome with desperation. So, you believe that the U.S. troops that were sent into Iraq had one week of training on how to dig a ditch, and no physical conditioning or training on weapons or first aid? Because those are the reports coming out of Ukraine about the Russian draftees. And no, the U.S. troops in Iraq were not draftees. Many were national guard units, which requires regular training and knowledge of weapons, first aid, etc. The U.S. has not used the draft in over 40 years.
Even if Russia can somehow win this war (most likely if the U.S. decides to stop sending weaponry), it will most likely be a Pyrrhic victory for them. Their military will be in shambles. Their economy will be devastated, and few countries will want to do business with them. More capable and talented Russians will leave Russia, adding to the brain drain of this year. Every other neighboring country of Russia will join NATO if they can. And, of course, if the U.S. stops sending weapons, the Ukraine War will no longer be a U.S. proxy war, so the U.S. cannot be defeated in a war that it is not a part of. And Ukraine will be a burden to the Russians, because what's left of Russia's military will have to watch the remaining Ukrainians closely, while Russia rebuilds the infrastructure of the country it's been bombing into submission. Russia is in a tough spot at this point. They can't afford to lose this war, but I'm not sure they can afford to win it, either. I'll try real hard not to feel sorry for them.
I don't think Russia is looking for a way out of this. Putin is in over his head and still thinks he can win this war if he throws enough people into it. I also think the difference between modern warfare and Russia's previous "glorious wars" (including WWII) is just too great for them to overcome the obstacles. As long as Ukraine has access to western weapons and ammo, and continues to have enough bodies to fight off the Russians, Russia can't win. Ukraine has the motivation, the experience AND the technology to win this war. Russia doesn't. Ukraine targeted Russian generals early on in the war, and it will be years before Russia can replace that level of experience. At the other end of the spectrum, Russia's lowest level fighting soldiers don't want to be there. They were drafted and thrown into battle without training. Obviously, this wasn't how the Soviets entered into WWII.
Like I said, I want all of that to be true as much as you. As a military man, though, I want us to be doing more to ensure that outcome rather than just hoping for it. In my opinion, Ukraine is doing more than its fair share. We need to take more of the pressure off them now while they still have the initiative. But I say that knowing full well that we won’t.
Even if Russia were to somehow vanquish Ukraine militarily and occupy the entire country, they would have one hell of an insurgency on their hands. The Ukrainian population won't quit.
Again, we like to believe that. But they have before. Every time, in fact. The Russians might not be as good as they pretended to be at this whole conquest thing, but they have forgotten more about suppressing rebellions than Americans ever needed to learn. If we have learned nothing else from this war, I hope we have learned that the Russians are willing to stoop to measures unthinkable to Americans even during the worst moments of expansion into the American West over 100 years ago. Ukraine’s best chance to maintain its survival as a people lies in beating the Russians here and now.
Talked war for the first time in a while with my Belarusian business partner I've mentioned a few times in this thread. The highlights: Strategically, he thought Ukraine will take Crimea next. He viewed it as an easier military target and a huge bargaining chip. Will take less human and military capital and improve bargaining position more than pushing east. From a timing perspective - any day. He definitely is of mind to move while ground is frozen and to take down the kneecapped giant now. Waiting is bad. Big picture, he says Russian philosophers and leading minds are busy trying to imagine what comes next. He feels there's a growing consensus around federalism. Something has to keep it all from fracturing. Caucuses and Stan's are likely lost but so many of the resources are east. They only needed Moscow to facilitate. If that's gone, another power will look to incorporate. Again, this man has a lot of Russian pride, but is fully against this war and sees the outcome nearly decided and catastrophic for Russia. He also views this as big picture good for human society.
Putin going in for colon surgery, most likely a colostomy as his cancer advances and he is crapping his pants involuntarily. Her's hoping the anesthesiologist makes a mistake and he never wakes up Vladimir Putin To Undergo 'Emergency Colon Surgery' After Rumors Russian Leader Fell Down Stairs & 'Soiled Himself' (msn.com) Vladimir Putin is scheduled to undergo an emergency colon operation after the Russian leader allegedly fell down a set of stairs and “defecated himself” last week, RadarOnline.com has learned. The surprising development marks just the latest procedure the 70-year-old Russian president is forced to undergo amid reports Putin’s health is quickly deteriorating.
Ukraine winning ... “They've been taking extraordinarily high casualties," Milburn said of the units training with Mozart. "The numbers you are reading in the media about 70 percent and above casualties being routine are not exaggerated." Despite their "tremendous morale," Milburn said the defenders "have an acute 'regeneration problem,' which means getting new recruits into the line as quickly as possible." This means those being thrown into the fight have little beyond basic training. "Typically about 80 percent of our intake who are coming off of the line have never even fired a weapon before," Milburn said. "We've got our work cut out for us." Beyond the immediate dangers, a lack of funds is a pressing concern, according to Milburn. "I'm terrified we're going to run out of steam early in the new year," he explained, noting that sourcing, repairing, and replacing damaged vehicles is the biggest expense. Notorious Wagner Group targeting volunteers in Ukraine, U.S. trainer says
Great write up on the ramifications of the war and the cost to this point for both countries. Really a disaster both for Russia and Ukraine. Sad really. The Russia-Ukraine war and its ramifications for Russia
Is oil a corrupting factor. Most nations whose wealth came from oil are complete messes. Is having near instant wealth the issue?
I stopped reading at the first paragraph ... “The Russian military appears incapable of taking Kyiv or occupying a major portion of the country.”
it talks about Ukrainian military economic and civilian devastation too so you’ll get your rocks off if you keep reading
Russia's military truck tire factory has caught fire. It also makes tires for military aircraft. Based on the progress of the Ukraine War, I always thought it would have been Russia's military dumpster factory that would catch fire first. https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-military-tire-factory-fire-211900110.html
All it takes is one statement that is totally supported by evidence and NOT supported by Russian propaganda, and he stops reading.
It is an issue for any country that sells a natural resource that comes out of the ground. Unless the country does its own refining and petrochemical production, there is no downstream value-added industries employing lots of people and distributing profits across a significant percentage of the population. There is also limited diversity of economic income--money from oil sales typically dominates the economy and leaves it vulnerable to swings in prices or production. Someone has to be in charge of oil production, and that person has outsized political power over the country (like Russian oligarchs). Saudi Arabia handles it by having the king authorize all spending of oil profits. To their credit, KSA has invested heavily in downstream chemical plants, but their economy is otherwise not diversified. Venezuela is heavily dependent on foreign companies to provide drilling and refining capabilities, but they do not like seeing profits leaving the country, so they periodically nationalize their oil industry, causing disaster. The countries that have the most problems are ones that do not have the ability to regulate the oil industry or get people (and corporations) to pay their taxes. In an unregulated (or under-regulated) economy (like Russia), major producers will consume each other to form gigantic monopolies. The U.S. solved this problem over a hundred years ago with anti-trust legislation of TR and Taft. Brazil doesn't have oil, but they do have gold in the ground, and they are tearing up rainforests as fast as they can to get their hands on it. The U.S. has the best of both worlds, with significant oil production (so we don't don't get crippled by an embargo) and a diversified economy. Our economy was already developing into a diverse one before oil was discovered. The one thing we're bad at is recognizing that oil is a finite resource, and it needs to be conserved by all reasonable measures (gas tax, etc.). Norway handles their oil income very well. They invest all of the profits from oil production, and only live off the profits from the investments. They do not spend any of the oil production profits. They have some of the best funded education systems in the world (I bet their people are smart enough to recognize that oil is a finite resource). This system also stabilizes their economy to a large extent.
