put this in the oil and gas thread but thought it was relevant here The EU is setting up for long term cut off from Russian gas. This will be disastrous for the Russian economy and set the country back decades. ANd the closer these countries become to the west the less influence Russia will have there. Norway is ramping up production Fields in Azerbejein to get developemnt funding (large gas reserves, authoritarian gubmnt) and pipeline routing through existing networks in neighboring countries to distribute the gas to several locations in the EU. LNG processing capacity increasing Italy hooking up with Algeria for increased import through existing pipelines while increasing their own production this isn't going to end well for Russia even if they get to keep Crimea. Four countries offer help to boost Azeri gas supply to Europe | Reuters The gas network operators of Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia have proposed shipping additional natural gas supply pledged by Azerbaijan to Europe, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev said on Friday. The EU is seeking alternative suppliers to Russia because of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Speaking at a meeting with Azeri President Ilham Aliev, Radev said the four European Union countries have offered their networks to allow for faster and cheaper shipments of Azeri gas to central, western and southern Europe. The European Commission in July signed a memorandum of understanding with Azerbaijan to double imports of Azeri natural gas to at least 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year by 2027. "In the coming years we will at least double the production and export to Europe. We have the resources," Azeri President Ilham Aliev told reporters, pointing that his country has long been a reliable partner and supplier. Italy expands Adriatic drilling rights to hike gas output, lower price | Reuters Italy's new government will expand concessions to drill for gas in the Adriatic, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Friday, in a drive to double Rome's output to 6 billion cubic metres per year and lower energy prices for firms. The measure will take the form of an amendment to a government decree due to be approved in parliament in the next few days, Meloni told reporters. It envisages 10-year concessions to drill between nine and 12 miles off Italy's Adriatic coast, extracting up to 15 billion cubic metres of gas, Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said at a news conference alongside Meloni. Italy clinches gas deal with Algeria to temper Russian reliance | Reuters Energy group Eni (ENI.MI) and Sonatrach signed a deal to accelerate the development of gas fields in Algeria and the development of green hydrogen, part of moves to increase the north African country's gas exports towards Italy. Italy, which last year sourced about 40% of its gas imports from Russia, has been scrambling to diversify its energy supply mix as the conflict in Ukraine escalates. Algeria, Italy's second-biggest gas supplier last year, has been pumping Algerian gas to Italian shores since 1983 through the Transmed pipeline, which runs to Sicily.
I have not seen this article linked yet. Growing mutinies in the Russian Army. One more reason why Ukraine would be utterly foolish to go to the peace table at this time. Russian marines say 'incompetent' generals are treating them as 'cannon fodder' | Daily Mail Online
I would think that the U.S. could easily threaten Belarus with aerial bombings of their warehouses and military storage facilities if they got directly involved with the prosecution of the war. I also think that Kiev would be o.k. with that. And there isn't much that Russia could say if we bombed Belarus. Belarus doesn't officially belong to Russia (yet). The difficult part might be getting Congress to sign off on it, if that is needed.
Just like Russia, you won a tiny, little battle (i.e., the initial invasion of Ukraine, whether the casualties were killed or killed plus injured) and lost the war. Humiliated completely. Dominated beyond the capacity of words to express. Defeated like a Russian battalion of 570 troops told to dig in for battle and given only three shovels. Destroyed like a Russian tank in a fight with a single soldier with a portable missile. Blown up like Putin's bridge to Crimea. Annihilated and ground to dust like the Russian army is in Ukraine. *warranted and well-deserved contempt*
Russians, including former lawmakers, are having a convention in Poland to discuss ways to get rid of Putin. Even Belarus' opposition leader would like to form an alliance with Ukraine against Putin! Russian Enemies of Kremlin Meet to Plot Violent ‘Elimination’ of Putin Somebody's got the hots for Zelensky. She wants "better pushing" against Russia's goals. The U.S. may have to discourage her from "penetrating deeply" into Russia, or "merging with" Zelensky's government. "Lady, he's busy right now!"
The Kremlin has been busy writing manuals for Russian propagandists to use to explain things in Ukraine. So pay attention, comrade. We expect you to toe the line and not go off the script. Tell them it is a trap: Russian media find out how Russian propaganda is preparing for possible retreat from Kherson Make sure you tell people that Russia is going to retreat its way to victory, using classic 300-year-old military strategy. At the rate that they are getting tanks and artillery destroyed and captured, they might want to think about dusting off the 300-year-old weapons while they are at it, and make sure there are plenty of horses for the cavalry.
I think it is necessary unless Belarus attacks the U.S., our territories, or our armed forces. I am in favor of sticking it to Russia and any of its allies as much as anyone, but I am categorically opposed to all wars by executive action only, of which we have had too many since 1950. The President has a wide array of tools at his disposal to escalate support of Ukraine without directly engaging Russia or Belarus as well as not specifically needing Congressional authorization. He should do some of those first.
Ukraine boldly states its walking-away position in any future peace talks. Good for them. Ukraine says talks with Russia hinge on ‘territorial integrity’
Howling word salad wins wars! I asked another disputant why he believed that Russia was losing. His basis was that Putin was brutal, invaded Ukraine illegally and therefore had to be stopped. Ergo, Russia was losing. Eating zoo animals.
“Ukraine, like Afghanistan, will bleed for a very long time. This is by design. The militarists who have waged permanent war costing trillions of dollars over the past two decades have invested heavily in controlling the public narrative. The enemy, whether Saddam Hussein or Vladimir Putin, is always the epitome of evil, the new Hitler. Those we support are always heroic defenders of liberty and democracy. Anyone who questions the righteousness of the cause is accused of being an agent of a foreign power and a traitor. The mass media cravenly disseminates these binary absurdities in 24-hour news cycles. Its news celebrities and experts, universally drawn from the intelligence community and military, rarely deviate from the approved script. Day and night, the drums of war never stop beating. Its goal: to keep billions of dollars flowing into the hands of the war industry and prevent the public from asking inconvenient questions.” — Chris Hedges —
I suppose you can make an argument the Russia military is getting its ass kicked and running away voluntarily. That would be ludicrous but at this point that’s all you’ve got.
And things are only going to get worse. Russia is losing experienced regular army troops and replacing them with draftees with 15 minutes of training. And that is in addition to all of the equipment losses (plus ammunition and artillery shells, not to mention shovels) that they have sustained. I would compare the loss in experience to Japan in WWII. One of the reasons that things went south so quickly for Japan in the war was that they lost experienced pilots and maintenance crews faster than they could replace them (and they replaced them with people they didn't have time to train properly). Change pilot and maintenance crews to ground troops, and the situation is comparable. Ground troops may not have the same technical knowledge and skill as pilots and maintenance crews, but a lot of what they both do is based on instincts and quick reactions in the heat of battle, and making the right decisions under fire is a skill not easily replaced.
Russian troops are showing their versatility and expanding their mission in Ukraine. In addition to stealing appliances, they are also stealing vinyl-framed double-glazed windows. You can't say that the Russian army is a one-trick pony. And in a misguided attempt to provide extra armor for their tanks, they are stealing sewer manhole covers and welding them to the top of their tanks. Yup, one of the most professional, top armies in the world. You can't make this stuff up, folks. Russians planning to shell Kherson Oblast
Putin's Elite Tremble as Hardliners Call for ‘Stalinist’ Steps Prigozhin’s public calls for “urgent Stalinist repressions” against business tycoons who aren’t sufficiently enthusiastic about supporting the war effort have led some rich Russians to fear for their own safety and that of their families, they said. Prigozhin’s open attacks on top military commanders - some of whom have been subsequently removed - and the prominent Putin ally who is governor of St. Petersburg, have added to worry within the bureaucracy about the Kremlin’s unwillingness or inability to defend its own. With Kremlin officials now describing the invasion of Ukraine as a “people’s war,” hearkening back to the World War II rhetoric of Josef Stalin, a few insiders even say they fear the purges and arbitrary arrests of the the Soviet dictator’s rule may not be far behind. Amid the call-up of 300,000 reservists, officials furtively asked each other if family members were safe, worried about too openly admitting that they’d sent their military-age children abroad. One senior official likened the current situation to a military dictatorship but without the military coup that usually precedes it. The dominant emotion now is fear, insiders said. All those interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the risk of reprisal.
For those not under the Red Spell, RUSSIA ROLLED ITS TANKS INTO UKRAINE, not the other way around. Ukraine has no choice but to defend itself. Changing the narrative to Russia-victim-feed-the-global-war-industry-machine does not change that fact, no matter how often the Red Spell narrative shifts.
I see Russia is blowing bridges in the Kherson area. Historically, this is a characteristic of an army on the advance.
