Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

War in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Jan 21, 2022.

  1. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

    23,013
    5,670
    3,488
    Apr 3, 2007
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

    8,953
    2,108
    1,483
    May 31, 2007
    Fresno, CA
    I certainly don’t mean MTG. If I weren’t a serving member of the armed forces, I could call her “that traitorous idiot MTG,” but I am, so I will stick with “the distinguished Congressman from the 14th District of Georgia.” Seriously, I cannot explain the logic of people who would root for Putin, even if there was a temporary political advantage in it. I understand but don’t agree with those on the right who feel it’s not our fight and should stay out of it, and I understand but don’t agree with those on the left who feel that Russia (and China) are not the actual threats. But I don’t get actually pulling for Putin. It shocks the conscience.
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Agree Agree x 2
  3. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

    8,953
    2,108
    1,483
    May 31, 2007
    Fresno, CA
    • Like Like x 1
  4. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,121
    1,191
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    Proceed with Bad Man Putin —> Does Source Accord with Bad Man Putin —> If Yes, Safe to Continue —> If No, Dismiss as Putin Agent ...
     
  5. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,121
    1,191
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    Ganesh Prasad

    American voters have a simple choice at Tuesday's election.

    Want war with Russia? Vote Democrat.

    Want war with China? Vote Republican.
     
  6. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    31,639
    12,062
    3,693
    Aug 26, 2008
    past due, but glad that it is finally happening

    Pentagon, U.S. arms makers to talk Russia, labor and supply chain (yahoo.com)

    Pentagon leaders plan to meet with defense industry executives next week to discuss ways to tackle supply-chain problems, a U.S. official told Reuters, amid an expected surge in demand for weapons from U.S. allies due to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

    Deputy Secretary of Defense Kath Hicks will host a classified meeting with top U.S. defense contractors to discuss the National Defense Strategy, securing supply chains and shoring up the defense industrial base, including workforce challenges, spokesperson Eric Pahon told Reuters earlier this week. Concern among Pentagon officials is growing that top U.S. defense suppliers will struggle with a surge in orders for weapons from European nations like Germany and Poland, amid growing fears of Russian President Vladimir Putin's ambitions in the region.
    ............................................
    Despite global interest in weapons, major U.S. arms makers continue to cite a tight labor market and lingering supply-chain problems from the coronavirus pandemic to tamp down expectations about how quickly they will be able to deliver on those expected orders. "We have heard the concerns from industry regarding supply-chain challenges and workforce issues – and we share them," the Pentagon's chief weapons buyer Bill LaPlante told Reuters in a statement.
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  7. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

    8,953
    2,108
    1,483
    May 31, 2007
    Fresno, CA
    Past due is correct. By roughly eight months after it was clear Russia would not achieve a quick victory.

    Two other things long overdue are taking the restraints off of the gas and oil industries as well as the food production industry. What are we waiting for? The people of Europe to start starving and freezing to take measures to make more of what it was obvious would be needed eight months ago?
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  8. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

    15,357
    13,230
    1,853
    Apr 8, 2007
    if nothing else bad for his economy if the nukes come out. He couldn't care less about the death toll.
     
  9. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,121
    1,191
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    The expectations of Russia rolling over an armed-to-teeth deeply dug-in army, of hundreds of thousands, with a small expeditionary force, operating alongside local militias, in short order.
     
  10. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

    8,953
    2,108
    1,483
    May 31, 2007
    Fresno, CA
    He would if China were to become subject to massive retaliation as well. A million things could go wrong during a nuclear exchange that saw China also get targeted.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  11. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    31,639
    12,062
    3,693
    Aug 26, 2008
    I fear that Africa will starve long before Europe does
     
    • Like Like x 1
  12. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

    17,572
    2,817
    1,618
    Apr 3, 2007
    I agree. And I wish I could say she was the fringe, but I'm not sure. There are plenty of GOP officials that totally disagree, but of the drum beat starts to move their voters, they may feel they have to go along, especially if the useful idiots on the left start up again. I listened to an interview the other day with the head guy at Quincy Institute, the main think tank that drove that stupid letter. I was surprised because he's not inexperienced. He comes from a foreign policy establishment position in a prior administration. But he just made the stupidest points about trying diplomacy and not giving up on it. Made no sense.

    Of course his back channels going on and of course there will be some discussions. To put that out there in public, especially from members of Congress, just undercuts everything. You don't want to think can move public opinion in the US from either side. But we are certainly giving him the sign that he can.

    Edited to add:

    I will say one point that I think is solid the Dan Drezner makes is that we should articulate some schedule for graduated sanctions relief. He's done a lot of scholarship in the fact that sanctions tend to stay in place even after conflict are largely over, as some form of punishment. But if we keep that up, that gives no incentive to the Russians.

    I'm not so sure there will be a problem here. As much as everyone will hate the Russians, they will not want to maintain the energy sanctions, etc. But we should lay out what sanctions relief can occur for defined actions. That's the same as negotiating giving up territory. I thought he was pretty persuasive on that point
     
  13. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

    8,953
    2,108
    1,483
    May 31, 2007
    Fresno, CA
    I’m not saying that doesn’t matter. It does. But Europe starving and freezing enables Russian victory. Not the case with Africa.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  14. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,121
    1,191
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    Quick take: Russia is greatly increasing numbers in theatre, but there will be no “big arrow” offensives. Per Surovikin, Russia wii stay the course grinding down the Ukrainian. I’ve seen estimates of 105,000 Ukrainian dead +/- 10%. The Russian public is a bit restless, but the SMO continues.
     
  15. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

    2,529
    3,567
    1,998
    Dec 31, 2016
    If by fringe you mean minority I think there are as many people who disagree with our involvement and there are who agree.

    You might find this podcast worth a listen which is where a lot of those who disagree are coming from.
    William Ruger serves as the President of the American Institute for Economic Research.
    .....
    Ruger is a veteran of the Afghanistan War and was awarded the Defense Meritorious Service Medal, among other decorations. He remains an officer in the U.S. Navy (Reserve Component). Ruger was nominated to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and was a prominent advocate for ending America’s participation in the war there. Ruger was appointed by the president to the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board in 2020.

    Ep 200 | What Is Foreign Policy Realism? | Guest: Will Ruger
    Matt Kibbe sits down with Will Ruger, president of AIER, to discuss the theory of foreign policy realism and how we can apply it to international conflicts like the war in Ukraine.
    This is where I am coming from and why I am opposed to our involvement along the other points I have posted in this thread.

    Will Ruger covers points of isolationism, primacy, military industrial complex, nation building, alliances and much more as it relates to foreign policy realism.
     
  16. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,121
    1,191
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    I haven’t seen a single Ukrainian flag in weeks. And Americans are moving on.
     
  17. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

    17,572
    2,817
    1,618
    Apr 3, 2007
    Please. There's nothing he's going to say that I haven't read in some form for decades in multiple forms, at least as to the abstract foreign-policy schools. I read this stuff for leisure.

    I may be wrong, often have been, but I can assure you that I have not reach my positions based upon insufficient reading in open source foreign-policy abstracts
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

    2,529
    3,567
    1,998
    Dec 31, 2016
    If you're not interested that's fine others may be.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  19. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

    16,121
    1,191
    2,088
    Jan 5, 2022
    Obviously, I’m keenly interested. I’m speculating that Ukraine’s gravy train is about to go off the rails for lack of political will.
     
  20. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

    13,583
    1,913
    1,318
    Apr 3, 2007
    Well, what's a higher priority, world peace and survival of our allies around the world, or forgiving college loans? Biden does not seem like a big-picture kind of guy. At least he eventually figures things out. Trump would probably still be cheering for Putin and spreading Russia's propaganda.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2