War in Ukraine

I am starting to think this will be a multi year war before both sides get tired enough to settle with some Pyrrhic victory for Russia. But basically both countries wrecked in different ways. The US objectives will have been met (provide a massive deterrence to further Putin invasions, China and NK will get a strong signal and we will greatly weaken Russia), but republicans will scream about wasting money on a losing effort, while privately applauding the effort.
F Putin is overthrown though, who knows.

 

You're getting closer to understanding.

Of course Trump would not have supported Ukraine to NATO. He didn't support NATO at all and certainly wouldn't have looked to strengthen it. Rather Trump ginned up nationalism across Europe, openly praised Putin, and fractured and weakened US opposition to Russia. Why would Putin have done anything to derail those efforts?

 

Article about Iranian Shahed drones deployment in Ukraine. $20,000 each. They sound pretty effective as weapons of death in swarms. Anyone know if there are effective especially cost effective counter measures? I’m curious whether the Iranians can threaten the Saudis or Israelis with that there is not an effective counter measure, especially not a cost effective countermeasure.

I think I have read that drone swarm tactics in general are considered that new big threat to Western technology advantage

At a mere $20,000 apiece, the Shahed is only a tiny fraction of the cost of a more conventional, full-size missile. For example, Russia’s Kalibr cruise missiles, which have seen widespread use in eight months of war, cost the Russian military about $1 million each.

At such a low cost, the Shahed can be deployed in massive numbers to saturate a target, whether it’s a fuel depot or infrastructure and utilities like power or water stations.

Despite its small size, the Shahed’s explosive charge appears powerful enough to do damage. In Monday’s attacks, one drone struck an operations center while another slammed into a five-story residential building, ripping a large hole in it and collapsing at least three apartments, resulting in the deaths of three people.

Bielieskov from Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies said the Russian military is opting to use Shaheds on civilian targets instead of the battlefield because Ukrainian forces have “learned how to fight them effectively,” managing to intercept a little more than half of them.

https://tampabaytimes-fl.newsmemory.com/?publink=089d04533_134867e

 

Well this Op Ed seems to answer my question, at least as to programs in place. Interesting thought on the Saudis. Have to think on that one


In early September, U.S. Central Command, which runs the Pentagon’s forces in the Middle East from MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, confirmed plans to open a new military testing facility in Saudi Arabia that would “test new technologies to combat the growing threat from unmanned drones, and it will develop and test integrated air and missile defense capabilities.”

The facility would be called the Red Sands Integrated Experimentation Center, evoking the White Sands Missile Range, the U.S. military testing facility for extended-range missiles in New Mexico.

The idea for the new facility was reportedly proposed by Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, when he visited the Saudi Royal Armed Forces in July. “The kingdom is poised for the future, and I look forward to a continued military partnership,” Kurilla said at the time.


https://tampabaytimes-fl.newsmemory.com/?publink=1edf99bdd_134867e

 

another mysterious death. there is a war going on between factions in Russia. No other reason that powerful people both for and against the war are dying

Vladimir Putin: Head of his military campaign found dead 'under mysterious circumstances' (msn.com)

Lt. Col. Roman Malyk (49), was responsible for enlisting men to the mobilisation campaign launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin to bolster Russian forces in Ukraine by a force of 300,000 conscripts.

According to reports, the Russian official died from hanging near a fence at his home and local police have opened up a murder probe, however suicide has not been ruled out, the Hindustan Times reports


Russia: Putin’s ‘child prodigy’ dead – Another high-ranking energy market official | News Bulletin 247

Many high-ranking Russian officials linked to Gazprom have died under suspicious circumstances in recent months, sometimes by falling from windows, sometimes by drowning at sea or by suicide.

A 47-year-old Russian politician, Mr Nikolai Petrounin – a former gas industry executive – becomes the latest on a “blacklist” of energy officials who have died since the invasion of Ukraine.
................
However, critics fear that Putin’s shadowy FSB (Federal Security Service – formerly KGB) may be behind the killings, with the Russian leader repeatedly accused of ordered the death of dissidentswhich he himself has denied.

Petrounin, a multi-millionaire father of three, was a former top executive in the natural gas industry who became deputy chairman of the Russian parliament’s powerful energy committee.

 

I fail to understand why the west has not put Iran on notice that providing weapons to Putin to support his war of aggression jeopardizing their position in lot of other areas. Anybody that has any role in developing, transporting financing etc those drones should be on a sanctions list.

to your point about defense, it would seem that the best thing to do is to be able to track their origin and destroy their launch teams and to track their shipment and destroy them in the warehouses when they get close enough to an area to be deployed.

found this article with details about the layers of defense being deployed now.

What’s the best way for Ukraine to defend against Russia’s Iranian drone - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

There is no shortage of ways to shoot down the drone threat, but there may be a question of using the right interceptors and not wasting costly interceptors on drones. For instance, Russia is using dozens of drones in attacks and Ukraine is already downing upwards of 60-80% of them; so Kyiv is doing well in this regard. Considering the fact that Israel’s Iron Dome has a stated 90 percent success rate in recent attempts to stop rockets from Gaza; Ukraine is already achieving impressive rates in its air defenses.

This means the best way to defend against drones is to have the right detection systems to warn about their approach; warn residents in the targeted areas, and then be able to use command and control and other systems to find the best; and if possible most efficient and cost-effective interceptor; along the route of the drone.

 

Obviously your correct, Putin is going into high gear with escorting his failed comrades to the back room with the wooden chair aka/bullet to the back of the head.

Going rather Stalinesque with his purges and fear campaign.

This is governance in Russia and why I keep imploring fellow Swamp Gasserz to get the hell off the Putin / Russian (attempting to understand / sympathy train) and recognize exactly what Putin and other totalitarian Govts offer.

 

It might not be Putin that’s murdering his inner-circle. There’s stories now that the Head of the The Wagner Group is engaging in a huge power play. He is urging Putin to fire his Defense Minister, and to essentially place himself in charge of the entire Russian Army, if not higher ambitions. He might be eliminating any potential opposing voice to his ascension to power.

 

Thanks. Interesting. I'm not sure it answers my question, which may have been inartfully stated. The issue is cost and an acceptable effective percentage, which are really related issues.

A 90% or even 70% success percentage is an excellent result if you're talking about defending against an attack of 10 missiles that cost more than the interceptor system marginal costs. But if the drones only cost $20,000 each, and they send over 50, you're still talking about letting through 5 to 15. If they have enough explosive power, that's a whole lot of damage.

And if you're intercepting with missiles, you're spending a lot more. Obviously the Israelis have made the decision that it's worth it to preserve their civilian population which makes perfect sense. But in the so-called active hot war zone like this one, when the Ukrainians are already suffering greatly in terms of finances despite Western help, seems like this could be a very effective offensive weapon.

I'm wondering if radar controlled antiaircraft machine guns, thought to be a relic of the past, should be resurrected. I know there's been some talk for cost reasons of using some thing like the A29 Super Tucano to provide close air support where there is unquestioned air supremacy. I don't know if attack helicopters could be used as well. Probably not. They would probably be too vulnerable.

But if you can send over a semi-guided heavy explosive package for $20,000, and send them in swarms, that seems like a problem that I'm not sure we have a solution to get

 

A question I have is why are the Saudi’s and the Iranians both doing Russias bidding. I thought they were mortal enemies?

 

Old saying from that part of the world: " The enemy of my enemy is my friend".

 

That is interesting

 

Although both Saudi Arabia and Iran have allied with Russia their motivations are completely different. In the case of the Saudis it's almost entirely economic. Russia and Saudi Arabia are the two largest exporters of petroleum and limiting the production of oil to keep prices high is in the interests of both countries. In the case of Iran it's more of a strategic decision based in large part on the enemy of my enemy is my friend. There is also probably an economic incentive on the part of Iran with the sale of the drones providing revenue to compensate for lost trade resulting from sanctions on the country.

 

Perhaps KSA doesn't like the precedent of the west imposing cost and quantity oil export restrictions on others and is helping Russia to protect themselves if he wants to kill more opposition figures elsewhere

 

Tucker Carlson mentioned being broadcast in Russia

 

it would seem that some sort of electronic jamming or frying (directed MEP's in waves?) device would be the only thing to economically cast a large enough net to be economically deployed. Shooting smart missiles at stupid ones is always going to cost more. it also seems that they need wider and lower radar coverage to be able to detect these things far enough in advance to deploy multi-layered defenses at this time.

I still believe that tracking the deliveries and destroying them with himars when they get close enough to be collected and uncrated for deployment would be best way to combat them at this time. Probably easier said than done but it would seem to be a good place for a proactive operation. Would rather destroy 500 in a warehouse at one shot than 400 in the sky while 100 get thru

 

Thanks - both make a lot of sense.

 

Fiona Hill: ‘Elon Musk Is Transmitting a Message for Putin’

despite the title, an interesting read on Putin.