War in Ukraine

Russians rocketing Kyiv. No military benefit

 

Understanding Russia's reason for wanting to "annex" is key. It doesn't appear to me Putin is attempting to rebuild the old USSR. I think he would have thrown more at Ukraine if that was the case. He was willing to occupy Kyiv if it was easy to do, but he hasn't thrown the full thrust of the Russian military at Ukraine. That leads me to believe he's content with preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, which controlling the Donbass and Crimea (therefore the Black Sea) allows him to do. NATO will never accept a fractured Ukraine as a member state. It's also been reported that Putin was willing to accept this compromise to end the war, which again lends to the belief he doesn't need to annex all of Ukraine to be happy.

 

And the 2014 “annexation” of Crimea?

 

Cape:

You would make pre 1939 American isolationists proud. I find your stance ridiculous to the point of obserdity.

Of course Ukranian politics was corrupt, mind boggling so pre February.

and Russias isnt? Or the USA now and especially 2016-2020?

You dishonor all the blood and capital spent by Western Europe and the USA since 1945.

You would surrender S Korea, The middle east, Western Europe, Taiwan and every where else in the world to totalitarians.

 

It was done to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, in response the Maidan Revolution in Kyiv where western powers conspired to have a Kremlin puppet (Yanukovych) ousted from office. Whatever we think about the good, evil and so forth of this, if we're being honest about it, we can see Russia has always viewed Ukraine as a security risk and a red line. ie this isn't simply Putin gobbling up more "lebensraum". It's being done for a strategical purpose and that purpose is to keep Ukraine out of NATO, because Russia sees it (for right or wrong) as a huge security threat to their survival as a nation.

 

You are overthinking it. There is no scenario in which Putin is “content” with the embarrassing string of tactical losses his military has suffered. He is not holding back. He is not engaging in military deception. What you are seeing is the best Putin can field without rendering himself unacceptably vulnerable in another area. Everyone, myself included, is understandably confused how we could have analyzed Russian capabilities and limitations so poorly, but as I’ve pointed out in other posts this isn’t the first time and won’t be the last that the best available minds have either overrated or underrated an adversary. Now what can still change is that Russia can grow and improve from its deficiencies, and I remain perplexed that it has not.

 

What is self-talk?
Self-talk is the way you talk to yourself, or your inner voice. You might not be aware that you're doing it, but you almost certainly are. This inner voice combines conscious thoughts with inbuilt beliefs and biases to create an internal monologue throughout the day.

Self-talk is important because it has a big impact on how you feel and what you do. It can be supportive and beneficial, motivating you, or it can be negative, undermining your confidence.

 

He sent roughly 130,000 or so troops into Ukraine, which is smaller than the initial deployment the US sent into Iraq in 2003. I think he may have miscalculated Ukraine's readiness to respond, but I don't think he's brought the full force of Russia's military against Ukraine yet. And I realize he can't deploy the entire military into Ukraine as it would leave Russia vulnerable in so many other places.

 

Boiled down ...

 

If he could, he would overrun Ukraine in a blitzkrieg. With no ability to control the air, a severe shortage of smart weapons (and no chips to build new ones or chip making capacity), a corrupted supply line full of antiquated and poorly manufactured equipment, and an army full of conscripts that want no part of it he is left neutered without the ability to even stop the advance of the Ukranians. They sent their best Wagner group forces into battle and they are getting chewed up now that Ukraine has modern artillery and rocket systems

 

Vladimir would be proud.

 

Apparently I also missed the event where Zelensky poked the russians by rolling tanks into Moscow. But hey, what do I know?

 

I doubt that Volodymyr likes me much.

 

For starters, shelled civilians in the Donbas for years. Remember when ethnic cleansing was a thing ?

 

How was Ukraine going to be in NATO? They were never even offered membership? Now that Finland and Sweden will be NATO, how's that "possible in the far future Ukraine membership" stack up as a security threat ? Sorry but an ousted Putin puppet is NOT acceptable grounds for invasion of a sovereign nation.

 

He doesn’t need all of Ukraine to be happy today. Just like when Russia stole crimea. Putin was happy for a while and then wanted more.

 

Neville Carpevitas, your blather is reminiscent of chamberlain’s proclamation of peace in our time. Some dictators need to be beaten and deposed to stop their expansion. Putin is one of those.

 

Yeah if all he can get now is Donbas, he will come back with another excuse for central Ukraine in a few years.
There’s a reason he started with Kiev, he wanted to install a puppet government. That wish hasn’t gone away. Anyone who thinks this was about the east only is in some wishful thinking.

 

Yep, he wants a collection of vassal states on his frontier that become de facto parts of a greater Russian Empire. He doesn't want a western style democracy on his door step (might make his natives restless).