War in Ukraine

And there are good reasons why the West has not provided aircraft and long-range missiles. What would it do to morale to see F-16’s and F-15’s falling flaming from the sky ? And Biden knows very well how Putin would respond if American missiles landed in Russia west of New Russia.

 

LOL oh really how would he respond? I thought you said the nuclear threat was sophomoric.

Based on his performance in Ukraine I doubt his response conventionally would be all that impressive.

 

Every time I say Putin you think “Nukes!”

Come on, man! I mean respond in kind. Biden knows that if a Western missile is fired on Russia from, say, Poland, he should expect for Putin to fire on Poland.

And maybe you missed how Russia has been firing on select targets, all over Ukraine, from the beginning.

Don’t confuse precision attacks with incompetence.

 

I have done exactly what you suggest and you are 100% correct. The thread is much more satisfactory without that Putin "Bot" machine. Probably gets paid a ruble for every post.

 

Some people can’t feel comfortable unless everyone echoes their sentiments.

 

many cruise missiles would be shot down if the us and nato were active in theatre. Not to mention the unholy bombardment the us and nato could put on logistics communications and defensive positions and fixed artillery if western air power were deployed. It would be a massacre.

 

It does beg the question about similar bots spamming up boards and forums in the US and European cybersphere.

 

I have NO DOUBT of their existence and use.

 

I’d speculate that the vast majority of bots are pro-Ukrainian. But who needs bots when the US oversees the most formidable propaganda machine ever assembled ? It’s really the principle power, at this stage, that the US wields in the world.

 

So here's what I've gathered from a few recent podcasts and articles. Only two of these thoughts are my own, which I will label.


In terms of the threat of a tactical nuclear weapon, it looks like the behind-the-scenes messaging to allies, to Russia and to China and India is as follows:

1. Ukraine won't quit, so exploding a tactical device on Ukranian soil won't win the war for Russia and it will only make things worse;
2. China and India will abandon you (I'm assuming they are saying that based upon consultations with China and India, plus it only makes sense);
3. To pressure Ukraine to surrender based upon the nuclear threat would enable the worst type of ongoing nuclear terrorism. It would tell every state with a nuclear weapon that all they have to do is threaten to get whatever they want;
4. And again, Ukraine won't quit even if they are subject to a tactical nuclear weapon.

Russia supposedly is just trying to hold on until the winter will supposedly freeze lines and give them an opportunity to regroup. The big variable is how much and what specific territory Ukraine can reconquer before then, i.e., whether they can completely break Russia and/or leave pockets of troops Russia isolated before the freeze comes.

Dan Drezner thinks that we need to make sure we promise sanctions relief, fairly aggressively and perhaps unfairly, if Russia backs off in some unspecified form.


That leads me to add a thought of my own. One of the very frustrating ways that you avoid even more destructive war is through giving an offramp to dictators which is completely unfair, allowing them to escape accountability and keep a lot of their ill-gotten gains. It's maddening, but sometimes if you don't, you leave them with no incentive except to fight till the end. So it may be necessary to do that for both Putin and for some of the oligarchs.


Crimea is still the big issue. Wesley Clark, interviewed by the Economist, felt like it was just another piece of land and Russia still had to be defeated and that meant taking Crimea.


Another thought of my own. I wonder if there could be a face-saving measure whereby Crimea becomes Ukrainian territory but with some type of long-term lease for a Russian naval base like a lesser Guantánamo. And the oligarchs that have built their summer homes there get some kind of protection too.


I hate the idea but sometimes you have to do things like that if you want to avoid prolonged war.

 

Perhaps they're hiding them next to their useless Air Force.

 

You seem to imagine that Russia would stand pat while the US and NATO is doing all this.

 

Never mind the Russian Air Force. I don’t think the US Air Force would fare very well in Ukraine. This is surely one reason why the US Air Force is not operating in Ukraine.

 

No one is minding the absent Russian Air Force ... they've been rendered useless. If the Ukraine can totally negate them with just the equipment NATO has provided, it would be a slaughter when USAF slapped them down.

 

Or maybe we’re just witnessing an enlargement of the transition from manned air attacks to unmanned drone attacks. The latter appears to be much more cost-effective and doesn’t place pilots at risk.

 

I see bluster here. Even the Pentagon acknowledges that Russia has the most effective anti-aircraft defense in the world. Only desperation would bring the USAF to Ukraine. Otherwise, the American public wouldn’t countenance billions of dollars of US fighter jets falling flaming from the sky.

 

lol yeah sure we’re the ones blustering lol.

 

While we’re entertaining phantasmagoric visions of escalation, let’s say the US intends to bomb Russia with its own planes. How would the US accomplish that ? Would it just fly hundreds of planes into Ukraine and start from there ?

 

I agree on many of these points.

Some type of concession may be needed, but the longer this drags on the less likely I see it. May be too late already. Both because vengeance is a thing, and if the rout is on, why concede any thing?

I also don't see winter as an aid to Russia here. The only way it would be a help to ivan is if winter makes terrain navigable for them to deploy some massive stockpile of previously undeployed assets. Lol. Yeah. Right. Otherwise it just complicates supply lines.

 

Israel routinely kicks Russian anti-aircraft defense. Try again. Turkey saw it in action and quit buying. LOL