War in Ukraine

And every day.............Ukraine continues to recapture territory in both the Northern and Southern sectors.............

I hope that Ukraine is considering winter" stop-points" for entrenchment and logistical reinforcement. The weather will turn, and soon. Perhaps another month of the campaigning season before General Winter begins to shut it down.

Personally I think Putin / Russian military still have a surprise "counter-punch" in the planning stages before the winter shut down. Hope the Yellow and Blue are ready for it.

 

I don’t think it’s going to be a surprise in any way what’s about to happen.

 

I'm telling you all, this thread becomes much better after you block the troll. It's easier to skip through to the actual updates as opposed to the nonsense propaganda from Kremlin Kevin.

 

Bucha 2.0

 

The Blaming continues and will likely become lethal.

 

already has for some folks.

 

LOL instances like this only prove that Russia is not the dank totalitarian state of John Bircher dreams. In fact, Putin just gave Kadyrov a promotion. He likes feisty.

 

Timothy Snyder, historian and Russia-Ukraine expert, has some excellent commentary on how the war will end and why Russia is unlikely to use the nuclear option.



And so we can see a plausible scenario for how this war ends. War is a form of politics, and the Russian regime is altered by defeat. As Ukraine continues to win battles, one reversal is accompanied by another: the televisual yields to the real, and the Ukrainian campaign yields to a struggle for power in Russia. In such a struggle, it makes no sense to have armed allies far away in Ukraine who might be more usefully deployed in Russia: not necessarily in an armed conflict, although this cannot be ruled out entirely, but to deter others and protect oneself. For all of the actors concerned, it might be bad to lose in Ukraine, but it is worse to lose in Russia.

The logic of the situation favors he who realizes this most quickly, and is able to control and redeploy. Once the cascade begins, it quickly makes no sense for anyone to have any Russian forces in Ukraine at all. Again, from this it does not necessarily follow that there will be armed clashes in Russia: it is just that, as the instability created by the war in Ukraine comes home, Russian leaders who wish to gain from that instability, or protect themselves from it, will want their power centers close to Moscow. And this, of course, would be a very good thing, for Ukraine and for the world.

If this is what is coming, Putin will need no excuse to pull out from Ukraine, since he will be doing so for his own political survival. For all of his personal attachment to his odd ideas about Ukraine, I take it that he is more attached to power. If the scenario I describe here unfolds, we don't have to worry about the kinds of things we tend to worry about, like how Putin is feeling about the war, and whether Russians will be upset about losing. During an internal struggle for power in Russia, Putin and other Russians will have other things on their minds, and the war will give way to those more pressing concerns. Sometimes you change the subject, and sometimes the subject changes you.

Of course, all of this remains very hard to predict, especially at any level of detail. Other outcomes are entirely possible. But the line of development I discuss here is not only far better, but also far more likely, than the doomsday scenarios we fear. It is thus worth considering, and worth preparing for.

 

Speculations about Russia using nukes are sophomoric. It is a comfort narrative to conjure up a Putin backed into the corner. Back on Planet Earth ...

Kiev's economy will contract by 35% in 2022. Europe is imploding and the only question is whether and to what extent the US economy will be battered.

Americans are moving on from Ukraine. US and NATO weapons reserves are running dry.


Driving a few borrowed tanks across an empty field or two may change the colors on the map and make for good PR, but one has to wonder how it helps Ukraine's long-term military viability.

And Russia has eliminated, in a single volley of cruise missiles, more Ukrainian troops, barracked in Kyiv, than Ukrainian units have likely killed, in weeks, on the contact lines.

Meantime, over 200,000 of the 300,000 called up Russian troops are either already in training or in transit to New Russia. Along with requisite weaponry.

Recall that most, if not all of the Ukrainian troops engaged in ‘counter-offensives’ now were husbanded and trained, for months, for a push originally intended for Spring 2023.

 

Ukraine latest news: Putin's potential successors listed - as thousands of Russians 'call Ukrainian surrender hotline'

 

Can you imagine the hue and cry if the Russians were murdering civilians like the Ukrainians do ?

 

LOL at the assumption that a Putin successor would likely be more moderate, more cautious, almost plodding in his caution, than Putin.

 

Trolling is a lazy meme. I prefer redressing.

 

The continued spin from those essentially rooting for Russia, for whatever reason, continues to amuse me.

Given all of the evidence we have over the past 8 months... what makes any sane person believe that: "Russia, for its part, is in the process of incorporating the Donetsk and Luhansk militias into Russia command structure. This is essential in order to conduct coordinated maneuver warfare, which is what Russia is expected to unleash once its forces are properly manned and in position."

Russia has struggled THE ENTIRE WAR to coordinate air, sea, and ground forces. This is exactly what was expected to happen early in the war when they used their best trained troops, but instead, they couldn't get out of their own way. Now Russia has already lost 55 fixed-wing aircraft, an amazing number considering the limited Ukrainian airforce, and that their air defenses have also been limited until more recently.

Earlier in the war
What happened to Russia's Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

Now
Russia’s Air Force Goes Missing At The Worst Possible Time—During Ukraine’s Counteroffensive

Lots of detail on the challenges Russia has faced on the ground and in the air and why coordination has been difficult
Russia’s Ill-Fated Invasion of Ukraine: Lessons in Modern Warfare

Don't get me wrong - Russia could easily win this war through a battle of attrition, because they have more people and more stockpiled supplies, and plenty of allies willing to continue giving them equipment. But how anyone believes they are going to win through some brilliant military strategy or maneuver is beyond me. They have proven time and again in the last 8 months that they do not possess the military minds or command structure to pull that off.

 

Most likely the next or one after assassination attempt on Putin is successful and the next Comrade realizes that the war's failure was the driving reason for Putin's demise. The military is pulled back to consolidate the new Comrad's power and will use Putin's meddling as their excuse for failure.

 

Well, at least someone’s admitting that, if nothing else, Russia will bumble it’s way to victory over America’s great proxy.

 

After which investigations will discover where the Kremlin has somehow been hiding a herd of unicorns.

 

You keep saying this. Consider that the west still has not given them aircraft or long range missiles. I don't think it's fair to call them a great proxy when they aren't even using all the conventional weapons in their arsenal. Had they provided those to Ukraine, Russia would be in huge trouble right now, especially with their consistent command and logistical failures. I'm OK with you calling them a proxy-lite. Or a McProxy.