War in Ukraine

OK - first, wtf is the US east?
Second, when exactly are these troops going to be deployed, with what equipment, and with what training?

U.S. hasn't seen large-scale Russian reinforcement in Ukraine, official says
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/15/russia-war-mercenearies-prisons-recruit/
Russia Touts Rapid Mobilization but Faces Dilemma as Ukrainians Advance
Mobilization Can’t Save Russia’s War

At this point I haven't read anything anywhere that indicates Russia's forces are anywhere close to redeploying to stop Ukraine's advance, let alone go on the offensive.

Things can change quickly on the ground in a theatre like this one, but unless western intelligence blows it big time, we are going to see it coming and we don't see it yet.

 

For those of us not in a position to watch can you summarize with bullet points the key takeaways? Would be helpful.

EDIT - I watched it at 1.5 speed:

• Ukraine just desperately throwing men and equipment at Russia who is while calmly and strategically withdrawing to invite further Ukrainian soldiers into the meat grinder - it's all part of the plan boys!
• Ukraine is desperate to disrupt Russian morale on the battlefield and at home to force a political solution - compares this to desperate German offenses back during ww2, because they know they can't win militarily
• Cites the pentagon - Laura Cooper - saying that the US has sent 22 drawdowns of equipment since August 21. Says that the drawdowns are getting worse and that it is clearly not able to sustain the Ukrainian war machines. Talks about that for a long time.
• Says he thinks that Russia has wiped out at least 8 of the HIMARS that have already been sent. No evidence for this. Says that Russia has also systemically destroyed all the howitzers US has already sent. No evidence for this either.
• Tries to justify his position using a few articles to talk about lopsided fighting in the south that the Ukrainian military is being destroyed.
• Says that russia is only retreating to sustain life of soldiers while bombing from afar - that they are losing barely any troops - doesn't say anything about any theatre other than Kherson - no comments about the North and east - which is typical of these homers
• Bottom line - no way to sustain Ukraine's fighting capacity and this is an all or nothing offensive to win the war psychologically - but it has no chance of winning the war. If they fail - russia will mobilize and roll all the way to Kyiv.

 

how is this not in violation of cluster bomb rules? reading that makes me feel ill how the cruelties of war are packaged up in words that makes it sound like some sort of science experiment. Can you imagine the pain, suffering, and sheer physical carnage created by 182k pieces of shrapnel evenly distributed among a troop concentration? Imagine one of these going off in a football stadium. the fact that we, as a species, stil feel the need to develop and enhance these types of destructive weapons does not bode well for our future.

The secret of the M30A1 lies in a huge number of tungsten BBs arranged around an explosive core – about 182,000 of them. The design is from a technology known as Lethality Enhanced Ordnance developed by Orbital ATK, later acquired by Northrop GrummanNOC -0.6%. This approach uses computer modeling to calculate the optimum size, number, density and placement of fragments to ensure that a warhead produces the maximum possible effect against a specific type of target. The developers claim that the M30A1 produces the same sort of lethality as the cluster warhead. This blanketed an area of over four football fields per rocket, so a salvo of six would blanket half a square mile.

Images shared on Twitter show pods of M30A1 rockets in Ukraine; close inspection of the markings shows that they have the correct manufacturer and lot numbers and were produced in 2017.

 

Sure ...

*Russia waiting for 370,000 troops which will erase and reverse the only advantage Ukraine has enjoyed to date - manpower.

*Much celebrated Ukrainian counter-offensives are a last-gasp attempt to foment dissension, in Russia, in the hopes of ending the war, on terms favorable to Ukraine, by means it cannot achieve on the battlefield. In a way, these desperate counter-offensives are like the sanctions that have failed.

*The counter-offensives are chewing through men and weapons to such an extent as to make the Ukrainian military easy prey, for Russia, when the newly mobilized troops are put to use. Note that Russia is already attacking Ukraine from the rear.

*While waiting for a massive infusion of troops and requisite weaponry, Russia is happily (temporarily) trading territory for irreplaceable Ukrainian lives.

*Ukraine is losing weapons at a far faster rate than the US can possibly replace them. Ex: four HIMARS will not replace the 8, 10 or more that Russia has already destroyed.

 

I want to add to my edit - that these russian homers never talk about weapons coming from other countries, they always focus on the US.

No one mentions the huge arms deal that the Polish just got done signing with South Korea to get arms on the field right away. Analysis: With massive Polish arms deal S.Korea steps closer to Ukraine war

Germany still hasn't even come close to providing the full extent of arms they can provide.

Etc.

It's not like Ukraine is going to be out there throwing rocks. And as much as we like to talk about HIMARS, french Caesar mobile artillery have been just as, if not more effective.

On a long enough timeline - it is possible that Russia can wear down the smaller country on their border, but it will cost them dearly, especially in manpower.

 

Wow... push a button and kill virtually every living thing in a half square mile.

Yeah, I would be retreating from that as fast as I could too.

Scary... and just glad we are on our side. Or are we? Hmmm....

 

But again, Ukraine losing weapons faster than the West can supply them. Now it’s down to getting T-55 tanks that were last upgraded in the 90’s. More importantly, Ukraine is throwing its best troops at the counter-offensives, troops that were being husbanded just for this purpose. And absent other countries putting boots on the ground, you can’t replace those.

 

Russian losses have been light to date. But if a massive offensive accelerates losses, remember that Russia lost millions in WWII. And Putin (and most Russians) regard this as an existential conflict.

But never mind Putin, Russians understand that sanctions were enacted to create hardships for them. And they know full-well that the West has been sending billions in weapons to kill their fellow Russians.

Americans see this as a big bully attacking a hapless underdog. Russia sees this as Russia vs. the West for the survival of Russia.

 

All of that is certainly possible. Russia is a much larger country, and Russia's leadership is probably more willing to make sacrifices to win the war than the west is willing to make.

But the stories people are telling themselves that are pro-russian, like the guy in that video, aren't in alignment with reality in any region other than MAYBE the southern front.

And this idea that Russia can easily transport, arm, and keep supplied 300,000 soldiers is hard to buy at this point. And I'm not even going to discuss training and communications.

All of this with Ukraine fighting with one hand tied behind their backs, as the west refuses to supply longer range missiles or aircraft.

It's honestly amazing the war has lasted this long, and is really a sign of poor Russian military leadership more than anything.

 

Not surprising. The entire ordeal is due to Russia's fixation on American power. In their minds, NATO = America, because America is the brute force behind the entire alliance. If Russia had the same views on America as America had about Russia (prior to this Ukraine mess), the invasion likely never happens. Their overrunning paranoia has sparked a massive conflict. A sad commentary on the human race, to be honest. They have no one else to blame but themselves.

 

To the contrary, until now, it has been Russia that has been fighting with one hand (and four fingers of its other hand) tied behind its back.

Right now, prior to the coming massive infusion of troops, Russia may have no more than 50,000 troops in a country the size of Texas and a contact line 1,000 km long.

SMO entailed a small expeditionary force ceding authority to the Donbas militias and providing artillery, air support and logistics for them.

Annexation and partial-mobilization means the gloves are off and that Russia is prepared to go big.

And I reference the former US Marine because he uses Western and Ukrainian sources almost exclusively to underscore Ukraine’s desperate position.

 

I'm sorry - this is complete horse poo. 50,000 troops in the whole country? LOL. Maybe now after all of their losses.

Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Reaching the Tipping Point
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/pen...re-set-russian-troops-are-now-in-ukraine.html
Six Months Into The Ukraine War, Putin Ordered An Increase In Troops. It's Not Exactly What You Think.
Russia-Ukraine updates: 2 US veterans who joined Ukrainian forces missing

Numbers from the initial invasion ranged well into the hundreds of thousands, but please, feel free to keep peddling this propaganda BS.

 

Russian dead probably number a few thousand owing to the nature in which it has been fighting. Everything coming out of Ukraine is to be taken with a grain of salt.

Again, Russia has never (until now) sent hordes into Ukraine. You’re probably confusing the mobilization it carried out, near the border, last Fall, in response to Ukraine massing troops in the Donbas.

 

Swiss Army Col. (ret.) Jacques Baud must be a Putin troll ...

Kharkov and Mobilization

 

How Accurate is Jacques Baud’s Analysis of the War in Ukraine?

If you read this whole thing, you see first of all that Baud has changed his story, from the war being unplanned to planned, and he is obviously peddling disinformation. IDK why. But clearly the narrative changes as needed. Which has been common throughout the war.

"being curious by nature, I looked up Jacques Baud online and discovered that in 2020 he went on Russian state TV to say there is “no history of poisoning by the Russian secret services”, that the Skripals simply had a bad case of “food poisoning” and that Alexei Navalny was poisoned not by the state but by some “mafia” people around him. He wasn’t challenged on any of these controversial claims and, regrettably, the Delingpod interview is in a similar vein."

So yeah... Russian apologist at best.

 

Ian Rons is always triggered by an suggestion that Russia is not entirely to blame for the war.

There are people in Ukraine who say things, wear things and do things that, were they saying, wearing and doing such things in the US, the media would be screaming “Nazi!”

And against Rons, even if their percentage of the population is modest, they wield an out-sized influence in Ukraine.

But none of this is relevant to Baud’s assessment of the war at present. And he’s a Russian apologist because he does not appease Russia-haters.

 

Never mind Putin, the Russian public knows this ...

Will Schryver

@imetatronink
·
1h

Yesterday the governor of the Lugansk Republic claimed two-thirds of the AFU troops taking part in the northern offensive are "foreign volunteers". Also reported yesterday that most of the vanguard troops in the southern offensive are foreigners. This is a Russia/NATO war now.

 

Try not to drool on your keyboard.
If this was a Russia/Nato war we would all be WELL aware.

 

You did a better job than I did!

 

If you only knew more you would understand that it’s all part of the diabolically clever, secret trap we’ve read about.