Interesting. Hadn’t heard this before - Russia’s Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine Anusauskas, the Lithuanian defense minister, said a number of Russian units from the Kaliningrad Oblast, the small Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland, have also deployed to Ukraine. Before the war in Ukraine, Russia had around 12,000 ground and airborne troops in Kaliningrad and 18,000 ground and airborne troops, along with hundreds of tanks and other heavy military vehicles, in western Russia near the Baltic and Finnish borders, according to a publicly released assessment from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. Two European defense officials estimated there could be as few as 6,000 of the original 30,000 Russian ground forces left in Kaliningrad and near the Baltic region. Although that number could change if Russia brings new conscripts into the fold to backfill its forces being ground down in Ukraine, those conscripts are likely to be severely undertrained and poorly equipped.
Russia sending 300,000 troops none of which are conscripts anymore than the like number the US sent to Iraq were conscripts.
Keep in mind both Lithuainia and Poland are members of NATO. I believe the consensus is Russia will not attack Poland as long as the NATO agreement remains in effect which is no ground troops or air support. It makes sense that Putin would test this agreement now that Nord Streams 1 and 2 are no longer on the table as a bargaining chip. Until more information comes out about the pipe lines the assumption is the damage is beyond repair. If this is truly the case Europe is screwed for years to come. The hard winter for Europe is a foregone conclusion and the supply line that just opened will not be enough to replenish storage tanks when they become depleted. There are LNG ports being built but even that depends on the highly modified ships that are capable of transport. In 2020 there were 125 LNG tankers worldwide with 125 operational and 55 on order. Building terminals takes 3-5 years or longer. I have no idea how long it takes to build an LNG vessel but I would bet it takes years as well.
I believe the consensus is Russia will not attack Poland Ummm, this was international consensus in mid September 1939 according to the history books too .....
It’s just interesting to me that Russia is so afraid of nato they fought Ukraine but also feel hunky dorey taking 80% of their experienced troops off their border post.
Is "drawn down" the new Russian euphemism for killed, wounded, captured or deserted? By the way Russia committed 200,000 troops to the invasion of Ukraine not 80,000 although I would agree that Putin and the boys did actually withdraw a number after their initial attempt at capturing Kyiv from the North ended in a dismal failure a few weeks after the invasion. I would add that most of those withdrawn were most likely later redeployed to the East and South. Published earlier today. As a point of information the Moscow Times was previously published in Russia. It's now published in Amsterdam. My guess is that the newspaper decided to relocate rather than taking the risk of its journalists "committing suicide" or alternatively ending up in one of Putin's prisons. Russian Troops Face ‘Imminent Defeat’ in East Ukraine Supply Hub - The Moscow Times
Point taken. But back then taking half of Poland was a no-brainer with literally nothing stopping the Soviet Union apart from its own forbearance (it had none). These days, there are quite a lot of reasons why it would be a bad idea for Russia to invade Poland. Since Russia is struggling badly against only Ukraine armed with some NATO weapons, how would they realistically expect to fare against actual NATO troops, especially in the air? As someone earlier posted, Russia has depleted its garrison in occupied East Prussia. In the event of war, Germany, Poland, and Lithuania would all love to have that land back.
You like Russian polls? O.k., why don't you eat this one. Only 23% of the Russian people had a positive reaction to Putin's mobilization. Apparently, the tide has turned. Russians overwhelmingly DO NOT support this war anymore. Presumably, the percentage with a negative reaction would have been higher if hundreds of thousands of males of fighting age were answering their phones and not running for their lives. I'm not asking you to like it--just eat it. More than half of Russians feel anxious or angry about mobilisation, poll indicates
Good article on the subject of troops redeployed by Russia, including those previously stationed in "East Prussia" or as it is now called Kaliningrad. Russia’s Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine Anusauskas, the Lithuanian defense minister, said a number of Russian units from the Kaliningrad Oblast, the small Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland, have also deployed to Ukraine. Before the war in Ukraine, Russia had around 12,000 ground and airborne troops in Kaliningrad and 18,000 ground and airborne troops, along with hundreds of tanks and other heavy military vehicles, in western Russia near the Baltic and Finnish borders, according to a publicly released assessment from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. Two European defense officials estimated there could be as few as 6,000 of the original 30,000 Russian ground forces left in Kaliningrad and near the Baltic region. Although that number could change if Russia brings new conscripts into the fold to backfill its forces being ground down in Ukraine, those conscripts are likely to be severely undertrained and poorly equipped.
Well done - But gee, how long before those crazy Prussians start cutting their faces with fencing swords again and start hunting for Lebensraum ??
So you favor surrender? Is that just a surrender of Ukraine, or do you expect the entire free world to surrender? Or should we stage the surrenders so that one country per month surrenders until Putin is in charge of the entire free world? We could make him promise after each surrender that he will not invade another country, and then we wait and watch him invade the next one. After all, the next country could contain a few Russians who need to be "protected" and/or "rescued". It should be quite dramatic, if not fun. Would that make you happy, comrade Chamberlain?
Putin has been very clear that he did not want Ukraine to become a NATO bludgeon. Finland and the Baltics have not been a concern for him.
Owing to the nature of its extremely limited engagement (until just now) Russia’s casualties have been remarkably light. Russia has never had remotely close to half the 200,000 troops (the number is getting bigger and bigger for some reason) but it may have shortly. And the Moscow Times is rabidly anti-Putin.
It’s a risk to be certain. Scratch a German and you’ll find an expansionist. Very important that we keep that particular dog on a leash.
I just don’t see the sense in antagonizing a madman with his finger on the button of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. But I also allowed that the US does not believe its own forebodings, although it profits from having Americans like yourself believing it. Compared to our gang who can’t shoot straight, Putin is Chuck Norris.
