Not sure how valuable or correct his insight is but this outcome would be startling Ukraine War Will 'Break Up' Modern Russia: Retired U.S. General (msn.com) The ongoing war in Ukraine and its aftermath may result in the end of modern Russia as the world knows it, according to one retired U.S. general. Speaking to Newsweek, Ben Hodges, who was the commanding general of United States Army Europe, stressed the importance of being prepared for the potential "break up" of Russia "as it looks today." He listed four factors that he said lead him to believe that such a break up is feasible: the exposure of Russia's military as "corrupt" and not nearly as effective as it was regarded, trouble for Russia's economically important energy sector and defense industry, a shrinking Russian population, and "pervasive corruption" that will become unacceptable to Russian civilians paying the price for sanctions imposed in response to the Ukraine invasion. "The combination of battlefield losses and the impact of sanctions on domestic Russia will make it very difficult for the Kremlin to sustain things," he said.
If it are to break up, it would be a disaster. Who knows where the Ike’s would end up, and a high percentage of the roles natural resources stuck in the chaos, at least for a while. They said, Russians are the most fatalistic people on earth and seem to love themselves a strongman, so doubt it comes to that.
It’s been a while since I have played but wouldn’t that make the risk board more accurate. I know there was Russia Ukraine Siberia and maybe Kamchatka?
uftaipan / oragator - Interesting comments. Considering that Western (European) Russia has enjoyed an almost complete political monopoly of a GIGANTIC territorial region for centuries I'm not sure I agree. I must confess to know little about the politics and ideology of central and eastern Russia. Having said that the breakup of traditional political power strutures (The Balkans) immediately come to mind, does not necessarily bring happy tidings. Power vacumns often go hand in hand with frequent, destructive power grabs by numerous entities - Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Palestine and many other examples are proof of that. I suspect it would not make the USA very comfortable if China saw an opportunity to expand westward. It's an interesting dilemma. It is also interesting that Czar Putin could see his dreams of the re-establishment of the old Soviet order crumble in front of him. Volodymyr Zelensky as new leader of Ukraine and the Russian Confederation? Hmmmm - I like that better than the current "Wanna Be" Czar of Western Europe and Central Asia. A toast of Stoly to Volodymyr!!!!!!!!!!!! That will get him on the cover of Time magazine........Trump would turn green with envy!!!!!!!!!! Hell I might even consider visiting.................. lol What say U comrade Submarine???
G8tr - This is GIGANTIC STUFF. IMO as big as the the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. WOW May the Ukrainian Offensive roll to the Ural Mountains!!
I’m hearing that by mid-October the world will be reconfigured into Western Hemisphere and Greater Ukraine. We’ll looked back on this week as the time that Ukraine took half the world by effectively punching through air in Kharkiv.
To your point, China would almost certainly step in and take the resource-rich areas to its north, which it has long claimed are historically part of China before Russia expanded eastward to the Pacific.
More indications that Russia itself is acknowledging the scope of defeat, even if they are still making dumb excuses for it: Kremlin TV Airs Call for Russia to Admit ‘Serious Defeat’
So when Russia leaves equipment and ammunition behind and Ukraine seizes it, then it counts as a loss for both sides (and a greater loss for the one who seizes it)? Your math is very fuzzy, comrade! You may need to repeat first grade. If this is how bad Ukraine's military kicks Russia's azz at 29% strength, your Kremlin should be happy that they aren't at full strength, because they might roll into Moscow and arrest Putin by year's end.
It wouldn't have to (and it wouldn't be able to or even want to, with nukes in the equation). Russia might collapse on itself and then possibly break apart. I suspect that it might hold together as a political entity (more or less), but civilization might crumble a bit in areas and it might start looking like a Mad Max movie, with people struggling for basic human resources, and people with weapons taking what they want from those without weapons.
I would think that Russia would stop their war with Ukraine (and Putin would get lead poisoning) before they got so weak that they could not defend the eastern territories. If that were the case, the U.S. might step in and help Russia drive out the Chinese, if the Chinese thought they could get away with it. That would be a really weird turn of events.
To be clear, I was only speaking of what would probably happen if the entire Russian Federation collapsed in another civil war. China would only do such a move if it would be unopposed.
I agree China is wed to the idea of the long game. I suspect because it sounds mystical and deep. I am not convinced that xi is not an idiot bluffing that he is smart.
True enough. Putin was so bluffing, wasn’t he? A year ago, I would have told you he was too intelligent, patient, and strategic to engage in this current war. A quick land grab with limited objectives, sure, but not this.
I first thought he wasn’t going to invade. I thought he was feinting. Rattling the Sabre to get the price of oil up. That would have been the intelligent thing to do. Now we know he is a megalomaniac moron. I suspect we overestimate all our adversaries.
I remember taking a Chinese history class at UF, which was really interesting. One of the few things I remember from it all these years later is that it’s is deeply ingrained in Chinese leadership to think long term. They think in terms of centuries, while we think in terms of today’s news cycle half the time. And when you look at their geopolitical and domestic strategies over the last half century. It shows itself to be true. he was always a megalomaniacal narcissist. That had been clear for decades. What happens with narcissists in power like him is they eventually believe themselves to be invincible because they completely surround themselves with sycophants. After Crimea, Chechnya etc, he believed in his own infallibility, and those around him backed that up. Even the intelligence reports he got lied and told him this would go well and people would be waiting with flowers when they crossed the border, because that was the world he created for himself. The question now is whether he is able to see reality and does something pragmatic deal wise, or he’s still stuck in the world of self grandeur and fights until everything around him is destroyed. That answer might go a long way in determining the ultimate outcome. the one thing that scare me, is that when narcissists lose, they tend to want to burn the world around them down in anger and revenge, and he’s got plenty of power to do it. Which is why we need to trad carefully if this counter offensive continues to succeed. We have to give him an off ramp of some sort.
I agree 100%. When he hit us with the “peacekeepers” BS right before the invasion, I thought to myself, okay, that’s his real play. He was posturing an invasion so when it seemed he backed down to putting some regular Russian troops in the Donbas, the world would breathe a sigh of relief and let it go with a little grumbling only. That is the intelligent, patient, strategic Putin whom I thought I knew. Turns out he’s just another Hitler after all.
