War in Ukraine

I agree as a rule that there is a great deal of highlighting Ukrainian successes and downplaying Russian successes. I’m sure the opposite is happening in Russia itself.

 

and some seem to be fear mongering in an attempt to insinuate doubt and fear among the EU population that would lead to capitulation...hmmm, who would tht benefit? The impacts to the EU and the west pale in comparison to what Russia is facing. Their entire air fleet is going to collapse without parts, their entire automotive industry and ability to build anything that requires a chip is dead in the water. As someone else ntoed, it will become obvious when airline accidents start to occur as planes are not properly serviced and maintained. Putin is trying to conscript troops from regions that have no love for Moscow at the same time he is telling those people to suck it up and deal with all the economic problems from the war he wants them to go fight..tough recruiting pitch... One might think that the seriousness of the situation in Russia is being underplayed by some.

 

There is almost certainly some fear mongering as you say. That's certainly in Russian interest. There is also, in my opinion, a lot of minimization of the impending problem going on as well, which leads us to a false sense of security that everything is going to be just fine this winter, and therefore our current underwhelming economic response is sufficient. I think that's in Russian interest, too.

 

On that I disagree either way Germany loses unless some diplomatic solution is agreed to. If I understand the natural gas situation as it is Russia could leave Ukraine today and shut off the pipe line. Ukraine is in shambles and Nord Stream 1 wouldn't solve the problem given Ukraine's situation. I continually played down the significance of Nord Stream 2 without having a full understanding of Germany's needs. Fact is the Germans put themselves in a position where it is a necessity and world supply will not solve an impending economic collapse without it.

 

Ukraine is the crown jewel, if sanctions can't stop Russia from taking the most productive parts of Ukraine then stopping other invasions is mere consolation prize.

Also, nothing is gonna scare China away from invading Taiwan if they feel their red line is crossed. If sanctions can't stop Russia with 1/10th the population and GDP, why do you think it'd stop China? Pelosi's visit is causing a stir because it's the first visit of someone her stature since 1997. I think there is a significant chance that the visit will cause a war rather than deter one.

 

Do the Taiwanese believe her visit will touch off the inevitable war? If so, why don’t they politely tell her thanks but no?

 

How do you politely tell her no? They're caught in a rock and a hard place. Embarrass your most capable supporter, or risk a destructive war.

Secondly, I'm more interested in the risks and benefits for us, not Taiwan. That's similar to how I don't really care about how the war affects Ukraine but how it does the US and our allies. Do we want to risk war there? What are the risks if we step up support during peacetime but not during war? What level of support to Taiwan during wartime would be beneficial to us? What type of outcome is acceptable to us? There doesn't appear to be a consensus on any of those questions, and I don't like it when we enter into wars without clearly defined and achievable aims.

 

As with many conflicts, the risk for it spiraling out of control are high. Does a Chinese invasion of Taiwan bring a US military response? If so, does that escalate into Guam or other US military assets in the area being attacked and so on? I'm sure the only reason the Chinese have not attacked Taiwan yet is that so far the cons have outweighed the pros. That won't last forever.

 

I addressed much of that. It wouldn’t be about winning that war, we couldn't, short of intervening directly. We could make it messy for them in what we would give to Taiwan, but not nearly enough to deter them.
But China is far more dependent on the west and Europe economically, so the goal would be to make it unpalatable for them domestically. In fact, their larger GDp works against them, the hit could be massive. They would be impacted far harder by sanctions than Russia is. And the fear of every government is losing their grip on power via uprising. Of course on our side, we would have to be willing to give up 20 percent of Apple’s business for instance, which is what they do in China. But China has much more to lose than Russia does.

The likely path now is that have pushed that war out at least a few years, until China can become self sufficient on things like semi conductors and other things they rely on the west for. That is the lesson they are taking from this.
Could they use as an excuse for war and say “sanctions be damned”? Maybe, but domestically their economy is already the slowest it’s been in decades, they are shutting down entire regions over Covid, the western world is in a state of unity not seen in decades, the main ally that they would rely on (Russia) is facing ruin, and they just watched 75k Russian troops killed or injured to gain 15 percent of that country, and many of their gains were places they already de facto controlled…China isn't in a position of strength right now.
And that’s why I said they feel boxed. They know they aren’t ready right now should the west act similar to what we did for Russia, so they are viewing this visit as having someone spike the football on them, even beyond their normal Taiwan rhetoric.

 

I would assume very, very quietly, in a manner that none of us ever hear about it and makes it seem like it was her idea. Otherwise, I have to assume that the Taiwanese don’t really believe that her visit will precipitate war. Whether they are correct or not is another matter.

 

I don't think people really understand the effects of globalization on Europe and western nations. The is a long read but worth it in my opinion. This article discusses Germany, China and a host of other nations. Is globalization dead? Possibly or at minimum a new avenue of doing business is certain to take shape. Of course none of this can be done overnight and will take years to accomplish. Years we may not have if we continue on the path to war.

Currently both Russia and China have all of Europe in a vice by the nethers. The US may be in better shape but any war would mean the US would carry the lions share of the weight. A war on multiple fronts would make it much worse in supplying Europe as well as meeting our own needs.

Germany and the End of Globalization

These days, even stoic government leaders seem overwhelmed by the barrage of world crises, tremendous upheavals and changing times. The global financial crisis, the refugee crisis, Brexit, the climate collapse, the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine have all happened in succession. It's more than enough to make a person dizzy. And yet, all this now simply feels like a preview for the massive change that is only now starting to role in: The age of globalization is coming to an end.
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"Globalization as we knew it will not return," BASF CEO Martin Brudermüller recently said in an interview with DER SPIEGEL. "We are now living in a whole new era," Henry Kissinger has said.

Most business leaders share this view. They are looking for new supply chains, reducing their dependence on individual countries and relocating production capacities. Foreign capital is fleeing China, and with it a large number of international workers.
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A common lament among many EU politicians is that the fast money of globalization has made the continent dependent. "Much of European industry is based on cheap energy from Russia, cheap labor from China and highly subsidized semiconductors from Taiwan," says Margrethe Vestager, the Danish member of the European Commission. "We weren't naive, we were greedy," she says.
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As far as the refinement of metal is concerned, it's hard to skirt around China. The People's Republic produces 58 percent of the world's lithium and nearly two-thirds of its cobalt. What if the Chinese decided to stop supplying German corporations or triple prices? That would quickly put an end to any desired electro-revolution in Germany. And to the golden age of the German automobile industry. A non-diversified risk. Not only for VW, but for the entire German economy.​

 

There's no chance that sanctions will stop China. Security and sovereignty trumps economy, always. Sanctions would also be devastating on Western economies, countries that do not have significant sovereignty or security concerns in Taiwan and therefore actually ARE affected by the economy in their decision-making.

Also, Taiwan makes the lion's share of the world's chips, if war breaks out then nobody's getting chips. In addition, most of China's chip consumption is for use in goods that are exported elsewhere. If we sanction China then they'd have much less need for chips. That's also assuming that they can't make the Taiwanese chip companies work for them, which is far from a guarantee.

https://www.eetasia.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/05/Gartner_1.png

If we never hear about it, then we could just as well visit without their permission, right? I mean, they're not gonna bar Pelosi from entry, would they? What would they be able to do to retaliate? Stop buying weapons from us? Start supplying chips to Russia?

The only way Taiwanese opinion can matter is if they make it public.

 

here is a good article on what I am saying and what we are doing.

Sanction semiconductors to deter China's Taiwan ambitions

 

You're dreaming if you think semiconductor sanctions, or sanctions of any kind, will deter China. China can impose a semiconductor sanction on the whole world by attacking Taiwan. Here is an article from a CCP mouthpiece, for some perspective on what they're signaling:

China’s defense ministry issues fresh, rare warning ‘action the most powerful language’ over Pelosi’s Taiwan visit; reinforces resolve - Global Times

"China has warned the US six times in the past few days over Pelosi's plan via different departments and channels. China's Foreign Ministry on Monday used the phrase "yanzhen yidai" (We are fully prepared for any eventuality) which literally translates into "streamlining army formation to wait for the enemy," and the Defense Ministry said the PLA "will not sit idly by" should Pelosi visit Taiwan. Hu Xijin, a commentator for the Global Times, said that China's recent responses, including the two rare expressions, sent a message that Beijing is determined to frustrate Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan island.

Hu cited a few precedents where the two phrases were used.

Before the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea (1950-53), then premier Zhou Enlai warned that China will not sit idly by if US troops crossed the 38th parallel.

In 1964, the Chinese government warned the US after the Gulf of Tonkin incident using the same phrase, urging the US to stop marching toward the then Democratic Republic of Vietnam."
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I think the most likely compromise at this point is Pelosi flying to Taiwan in a civilian charter flight, signaling that she's visiting in the capacity of a civilian rather than as the speaker of Congress. If she does visit in an official capacity, then I think China will probably shoot down a Taiwanese plane, making it too dangerous for her to visit. I don't think China will shoot down her plane or directly strike any American asset for that matter. They will instead take actions against Taiwan, up to and including a full on attack, which is what they're after anyway, and leave further escalation up to the US.

So if that happens, what then? Too often we've gotten into conflicts in far flung corners of the world without asking what then. Topple, Saddam, what then? Topple the Taliban, what then? Beat back the North Koreans/Vietnamese, what then? Provoke a war over Taiwan, what then?

 

Rob Lee’s Twitter feed tries to be scrupulously fair in showing both Russian and Ukrainian open source footage daily. He monitors Russian feeds

https://twitter.com/ralee85?s=21&t=5bsQuv7JJXW8-kwM7a1JKg

 

I agree that globalism is going to dramatically change. The CHIPS Bill is a step.

 

The issue is that a globalized company will likely be more competitive than a non-globalized one. It's the same reason that we're here where we are right now. A company that outsourced to China was more competitive than one that didn't. One that bought cheap energy from Russia was more competitive than one that didn't. Germany has been by far the most dominant manufacturer in Europe, that couldn't have happened without exploiting cheap Russian gas and a vast Chinese market (their cars were widely sold in China long before other international brands). Are they willing to become Spain or Italy? Because without vast nuclear power there is no way they can even stay on par with France.

We've heard a lot about deglobalization the past few years, and in particular about decoupling from China, but here's what's really happening:

Not only have we become more dependant on trade with China, the rest of the world is becoming more dependant on them even faster than we are. The only way to reverse that trend is to enact policies so destructive as to e.g. knock Germany down to Spain's level, and even then it may only serve to weaken the West and not hamper a Sino-Russian axis nearly as much.

Capitalism is based on greed, and it's the system of economics that has enabled the West's rise. If the answer to our current woes is to say goodbye to greed, then we can also kiss goodbye our wealth and power. No, the answer as always is to make greed work for us. Make ourselves more competitive in every arena, so that every bastard who wants to get rich needs to invest in us and trade with us. To that end, the CHIPS act is a good start, but we probably needs 10 of those to even start to budge the trend.

 

Apparently now there is graphic video out there on the internet of Russian soldiers removing the genitals of a Ukrainian POW with a box cutter. For obvious reasons, I won’t link it, and no I have not watched it myself. But wow.

 

Yeah, I’ll just take your word for it on that one. Awful. Can you imagine what life is like for the Ukrainian civilians caught on the wrong side of Russian lines?