I have not been as active in this thread lately and will be less active in the future. This is sad for me, because I think it's the most important and one of the only things we should be discussing until Russia is beaten. The week before last I went to an aviation commanders' conference at Fort Rucker. While there, I received my first and only classified picture about what's happening in Ukraine. This was mostly tactical-level information, focused on Russian and Ukrainian aviation operations as well as the measures both are using to counter each other in the air domain, but there was some operational-level information as well, showing the areas where Russia is generally making military progress toward its goals. Consequently, I will try to stay away from those areas for a while, so, even if I'm just giving an opinion, it does not seem like I'm trying to hint at anything. Nothing in the briefings dealt with our strategy (I hope this isn't because we don't really have one), so I don't mind talking about that since I don't know anything you all don't have access to open-source. Same thing with the political and moral aspects of the war. In a couple of days, I would like to start a poll in a new thread about what our long-term strategy should be to contain Russian and Chinese aggression. I have noted several parallels in the strategic problem facing the Truman Administration circa 1948-1950 with the present situation as well as the political paralysis to deal with it. I'm going to present three distinct courses of action, and I would like to get a sense from the board where we think our country should go with this.
We will see what you come up with. To be blunt my first inclination is I have no faith in Gen. Milley concerning a strategic plan. My major concern is we will be dragged into a war of our own making and not one supported by our allies. If such an event happens I see the draft being reinstated given the problems with recruiting and volunteers.
We have appreciated your professional assessments and understand that you can’t take the chance that something you have learned leaks into a post. Again, thanks and we will miss your insight
For what’s it’s worth, I agree with you about General Milley. More to follow in a later thread when we discuss why no one — and I mean no one — was held accountable for our disaster in Afghanistan last year. But the good news is he would not formulate any strategy by himself. Strategy is a whole-of-government matter, involving diplomatic, economic, and informational power as well as military. The CJCS would mainly advise the President on manning, training, and equipping the armed forces. The two leading military strategists for what we’re talking about would be the four-star combatant commanders (COCOMs) of European and Pacific Commands.
long range missiles changing the battlefield. Russian logistics are in shambles and they are no longer winning the artillery battle There’s A Good Reason Russia’s Artillery Is Running Out Of Ammo. Ukraine Keeps Blowing It Up. (msn.com) “Judging by the size of those fires, they were brigade, divisional and corps level supply dumps, which are predominantly fuel and ammo,” explained Mike Martin, a fellow with the Department of War Studies at King's College London. “Specifically for the Russians and the way that they conduct war—it means a lot of artillery ammunition,” Martin added. To preserve what’s left of their ammo, the Russians are pulling back supply dumps farther from the front line. A lot farther. “This has one very simple effect,” Martin wrote. “The Russians now have to transport all those supplies, say, 100 kilometers [62 miles] rather than 30 kilometers [19 miles].” The Russians had too few trucks before losing nearly 1,300 of them in five months of intensive fighting. Now the remaining trucks must travel farther to shift supplies from rear areas to the front.
As you state it is a joint decision based on intelligence short of an act of war against the US. Our intelligence agencies have been substandard to say the very least and the latest from CIA director William Burns (should be fired in my opinion along with Gen Milley) is less than stellar. There is no doubt the CIA is involved in Ukraine on many fronts. An assessment from the CIA would be a factor and so far they are batting zero with regard to weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and the assessment of the Afghan army. So who would make the decision and based on what? According to President Biden that would be chemical warfare or an attack on a member of NATO. We also know it is not beyond our intelligence services (CIA) to plant false flags. Either way we look at this Americans will pay for it in blood if we enter into a war with Russia. I look forward to your explanation as to why no one was held accountable for Afghanistan. CIA director ‘proud’ of Afghanistan analysis despite disastrous Taliban takeover CIA Director William Burns said he is “very proud” of the agency’s analysis in Afghanistan in 2021 despite being blindsided by the swift collapse of the Afghan government and failing to predict how quickly the Taliban would take Kabul. ....... The Taliban rapidly took over Afghanistan in mid-August amid a chaotic U.S. military withdrawal, and a suicide bombing by ISIS-K late that month killed 13 U.S. service members and at least 170 Afghan civilians as the United States led evacuation operations at the airport, with the Taliban providing security outside.
Well, spoiler alert then: I can’t explain that. I might go to my grave wondering how the political decision makers made the decisions they did while anyone with expertise was screaming at the top of their lungs what their decisions would mean. But we’ll save it for another thread.
Russia’s Artillery Is Wearing Out, And Blowing Up (msn.com) Russian artillery batteries in Ukraine appear to be running low on ammunition as Ukrainian rockets blow up more and more supply dumps. And that’s not the only problem Russian gunners are having as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its fifth month. Their artillery tubes are exploding, too. Photos that appeared online in recent days depict two Russian guns with what Mark Hertling, a retired U.S. Army general who commanded forces in Europe, described as “banana-peeled” barrels. That is, split and bent-back after bursting mid-use. According to Hertling, the banana-peeled tubes of one towed gun and one self-propelled gun are evidence the Russians are wearing out their artillery pieces—and not repairing them. “Here’s what happens when you don’t do maintenance,” Hertling tweeted. “You can bet there were associated casualties.” Artillery failures are just one data point in a wider set of indications that the Russian army is worn out, and getting wearier, following months of intensive operations aimed at capturing the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.
The biggest mistake we made in Afghanistan was in trusting the non Taliban leaders to do the right thing instead of the corrupt things they did. We went along with that bullcrap for several years too long.
It depends on rate of fire. Barrels get hot and they do eventually wear out from stress. Depending on the damage some barrels can be repaired but given the conditions in times of war the best option is to replace the barrel.
'No path out of economic oblivion for Russia' as sanctions crush Putin's regime: study The paper's results include sobering facts about the Russian economy," the report continued. "'Russian imports have largely collapsed,' the paper says — creating massive supply shortages and denying the country crucial parts and technologies. 'Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill.' Foreign companies that have left Russia account for 40% of Russian GDP, the author wrote, almost none of which is going to come back any time soon."
Russian Pilots Have More To Fear As Ukraine’s Gepard Anti-Aircraft Tanks Arrive The Gepard. Germany pledged to Ukraine 30 of these self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, or SPAAGs. The first copies began arriving this week. “Our capabilities to protect our sky will be strengthened,” Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted. ..... A Gepard by contrast is mobile and protected, as it combines the basic chassis of a Leopard tank with a lightly-armored turret. Its twin Oerlikon cannons fire 550 rounds a minute out to a range of three miles. The three-person crew is cued by a turret-mounted radar with a nine-mile range. The Gepard is an Su-25-killer. Moreso because Russian doctrine, and the Russian military’s shortage of precision weapons, compels attack pilots to fly very close to enemy forces in order to employ unguided rockets and bombs. So it was a big deal when, in April, Berlin offered Gepards to Kyiv. Yes, the SPAAGs are old. But so are the aircraft they’re meant to destroy. The Gepard still works just fine. “It's a ‘golden oldie,'” Nicholas Drummond, a British tank consultant, tweeted in reference to the SPAAG.
Russian Soldiers' Parents Head to Ukraine to Rescue Sons (newsweek.com) Russian soldiers refusing to fight on the frontlines of Ukraine are being rounded up and detained, prompting their family members to try to go to their rescue, it has been reported. Troops, who thought they could opt to leave Russian forces after a three-month contract fighting in the Ukraine war, have instead reportedly been sent to a makeshift detention center in Bryanka, in the Luhansk region which Moscow says it now controls. Relatives told The Insider, an independent Russian-language investigative website, that there is a large number of refuseniks which Moscow's military command is not letting return home, fearing others will follow their example. .................. "We need to do something, we need to get the children out of there and stop the lawlessness," one mother named by The Insider as Maria told the publication, "If we are the first, then others will follow. I don't know exactly how many of us there are, but I know there are many." The Nestka publication reported last week that a center in the Luhansk region was where hundreds of servicemen who refused to fight had been taken, with many being held in basements and garages.
Putin fighting back with the last thing he has left besides nukes. cutting gas supplies to Europe to 20% of pre-invasion levels. He is cutting off his nose to spite his face as Europe will adapt and expand the infrastructure needed to wean themselves off of Putin's teet. I have wo wonder how many here will try and blame Biden for the pending recession in Europe which will surely spill over to the rest of the world. Damn shame that we are sitting on so much gas with so little ability to export it. European natural gas prices soar 17% after Russia says it will slash supplies to the continent, driving fears of a deep recession (msn.com) European natural gas prices have shot 17% higher over the last two days after Russia said it will slash supplies of the fossil fuel to the continent through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Dutch TTF natural gas futures for August — the benchmark European price — rose sharply on Monday after Russia's Gazprom announced the move. It jumped again on Tuesday to around 188 euros ($191.50) per megawatt hour, according to data from the ICE exchange. That was more than 17% above Friday's closing price of around 160 euros and the highest since early March. European natural gas prices have now risen for four consecutive days and were up more than 700% from a year earlier on Tuesday. The cuts to supplies and the jump in prices are driving fears that Europe could soon tumble into a recession, as high energy prices cause people and businesses to slash spending. Economists at Credit Suisse on Tuesday slashed their growth predictions for the eurozone, saying they now expect the bloc's gross domestic product to shrink in 2023.
Why wouldn't Biden share some blame? Regardless of whether you think his actions are right or not, this is certainly a predictable outcome for his foreign policy, no? The debate is on whether the costs (i.e. Russia using energy as a weapon) are worth it, not whether the cost is predictable. With that said, with all the talks of Russian collapse early on, perhaps they really did expect Russia to just capitulate.
Putin was preparing to invade Ukraine long before Biden became POTUS. If you mean that US supplying weapons has allowed Ukraine to prevent a Russian takeover so the war did not end quickly, then yes, Biden, and the rest of the west that has supported Ukraine, are responsible for not letting Putin have his way with Ukraine.
Bridge that supplies Russian troops in Kherson has been taken out to go along with all the russian munitions and fuel depots that Ukraine has blown up in the region with HIMARS. Russians to use ferries to try and get supplies across the river but it seems that Ukraine is preparing to retake Kherson. I wouldn't want to be on one of those ferries carrying munitions, boats are easy enough to sink when they aren't prone to explosions. I wonder how hard the russian infantry will fight in Kherson knowing that they are essentially cutoff at this point Ukraine Strikes Crucial Bridge in Russian-Occupied South (msn.com) Overnight and into Wednesday morning, Ukraine used Himars rocket systems to again strike the Antonivsky bridge, Ukrainian and Russian officials said. The bridge links Kherson with other Russian-held areas in southern Ukraine across the Dnipro river and is used by Moscow to resupply the city and forces stationed there. Video shared on Russian Telegram channels showed severe damage to both sides of the bridge, rendering it impassable for vehicle traffic. “I want to calm people: the bridge is standing,” the Russian-installed deputy head of the Kherson region, Kirill Stremousov, wrote on Telegram. “It’s true that it was struck but that doesn’t mean we should somehow be afraid of someone or flee somewhere.” Mr. Stremousov assured local residents that suspending operations on the bridge wouldn’t affect supplies and deliveries into the city. But the strikes come as Ukraine readies what it has billed as a major counteroffensive aimed at retaking Kherson, a city captured by Russia in the first days of the war. In comments to Russian state news agency TASS on Wednesday, Mr. Stremousov said Ukrainian forces had fired at least 36 missiles at the Kherson region overnight. Later he added that ferry crossings across the Dnipro would be launched from Thursday.
Thanks G8tr, And to all contributing posters. Have not commented here lately, kind of a "wait" and see approach. I must confess that I find posters here to be a better source of information than many media press releases, at least when it comes to strategic issues. Does the board think, like I do, that perhaps Moscow may be reaching a difficult situation in holding the gains made to this point? My general impression is that the Kremlin is runnin gout of gas, weapons and perhaps ethusiasm. The continued (slow but steady) introduction of more advanced US and NATO weaponry into the fray seems to have stymied the latest Russian moves. Retaking Kherson must be considered a significant indicator as to Ukrainian capabilities. However I am no fool, the Kremlin could be "luring" the Ukranians into a false sense of security and confidence. But as previously mentioned, cutting off the Gas, a MAJOR form of Russian wealth generation smacks of desperation. In no sense do I see this conflict going the way intended by Putin, despite the muffled support of China and Iran. But where is this headed folks? While some still express concern about Moscow attacking a NATO member - in terms of advancing and occupying - (not in terms of a strike), is that even possible? It seems to me NATO intelligence would be able to easily ascertain some huge Russian buildup for that purpose. Besides, my impression is that Russian military capabilities have been completely exposed as being 3rd class, in conventional war. So where is this going? Does Putin escalate with what we fear? tactical nuclear weaponry? Or does he fold the tent and simply try to "hold" what he's got?? Thanks in advance.
