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War in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Jan 21, 2022.

  1. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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  2. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    That borrowed time is time that is to be spent preparing for what may or may not come next.

    I believe we all know the reasons why the US, NATO and Europe could not get behind a war in Ukraine and why they could not afford to put boots on the ground. We see it playing out on a daily basis with regards to global trade and dependencies on other nations to provide essentials. Especially when those nations are Russia and China.

    Europe and NATO put all their hopes in the US to provide security (military forces) as well as provisions for anything they might need to wage a war. Assurances that the US had been able to guarantee prior to the globalization of markets. Over the years the US fell into the same trap wrapping ourselves in the belief that economic progress for all nations would provide a stable world. I give up this and provide that, you give up that and I provide this. In doing so the US moved more toward a services market versus a production market not giving a single thought to the potential pitfalls of such folly. It started with textiles and progressed from there. Factories moved out and service industries took over. When service industries moved out (call centers etc...) our economy turned to tourism. Not a pretty picture for economic stability.

    The bigger question on the minds of people now is will such a war happen in the future or do we bite the bullet and start that war now? Europe is not willing and there is nothing the US can offer to convince them to do so other than suffer now or prepare for it later. Given what Europe is experiencing now their answer is obvious. To be fair I am not so certain Americans have the stomach for it either given the current situation we find ourselves in.

    My take is Europe you figure it out we will help we where can but even that will be limited. We can't give you everything you need and provide for ourselves at the same time.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2022
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  3. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    And it gets worse - what is required to produce aluminum? Natural gas and a majority of natural gas is going to Europe.

    Massive Layoffs Hit One of Top U.S. Aluminum Plants, Halting Operations
    Citing an "unprecedented rise in global energy prices," Century Aluminum in Kentucky announced they will be laying off 628 Hawesville Smelter employees starting August 5. In fact, mass layoffs are happening nationwide as fears of an economic downturn continue to escalate.

    "Unfortunately, an unprecedented rise in global energy prices arising from the Russian war in Ukraine has dramatically increased the price of energy in the U.S. and around the globe.

    "The cost required to run our Hawesville, KY, facility has more than tripled the historical average in a very short period. Given these circumstances it is necessary to fully curtail operations for a period of approximately nine to twelve months at Hawesville until energy prices return to more normalized levels."
    Americans now export more gas to Europe than Russians
    As can be seen in this graph, in June, shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to the European market — shipped by ship from the Gulf of Mexico — surpassed Russian gas shipments through the Gulf of Mexico. through gas pipelines.

    Why Sri-Lanka's economy collapsed
    COLOMBO, Sri Lanka -- Sri Lanka’s prime minister said late last month that the island nation’s debt-laden economy had “collapsed” as it runs out of money to pay for food and fuel. Short of cash to pay for imports of such necessities and already defaulting on its debt, it is seeking help from neighboring India and China and from the International Monetary Fund.

    Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took office in May, was emphasizing the monumental task he faced in turning around an economy he said was heading for “rock bottom.” On Saturday both he and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa agreed to resign amid mounting pressure from protesters who stormed both their residences and set fire to one of them.

    Sri Lankans are skipping meals as they endure shortages and lining up for hours to try to buy scarce fuel. It’s a harsh reality for a country whose economy had been growing quickly, with a growing and comfortable middle class, until the latest crisis deepened.
    July 11th, 2022. Factories are Shutting Down as Gas Prices Continue to Rise. Mexico's President Urges Americans Not to Vote Republican
    First up, an aluminum mill in Kentucky is shutting down all because of the Natural Gas Wars in Europe. I’ll explain what’s going on, and why it could get worse.
     
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  4. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    Even if your take on the matter is correct, the crux is this: we are not preparing. Since Russia invaded Ukraine and more or less proved the common model of global stability was a comfortable illusion, we have not done a damn thing to prepare for war militarily or economically, even if the true purpose is just to deter one. We have not even taken the most basic step of replacing the advisors who unintentionally misled the President with their fantastic idealistic worldview. I saw that clown Jake Sullivan on TV just this morning. Can anyone tell me why he’s not selling the exciting products of Amway at this point?
     
  5. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    I agree we are not preparing and until this administration gets it through their thick skulls things are only going to get worse for us. Europe on the other hand is moving in the direction of preparation and removal from dependencies on Russia. They are now working to reopen nuclear plants and coal in the interim. Where they get gas from is still an issue.

    The US on the other hand continues to bury our heads in the sand. My previous post concerning the closing of aluminum plants bear this out. What do you think that means for the housing market and all other goods that use aluminum? Not to mention all of the other industries that are closing down.

    Companies that moved offshore believing the US would protect them are now wondering if they should move back. When you have an administration that is unfavorable to their needs it's a no win situation.
     
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  6. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    Interesting debate that gives both sides of the argument.
    Should the U.S. Be Arming Ukraine Against Russia?
    Should the U.S. give full military and political support to Ukraine in its war with Russia, short of sending troops?

    That was the subject of a Soho Forum debate held on Thursday, June 23, at the Porcupine Freedom Festival, or PorcFest, in Lancaster, New Hampshire.
     
  7. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Ukraine is evicting Russia from the Black Sea with their home built long range missiles. They are also putting the HARMs to good use continuing to hit arms depots and command and control centers

    Ukraine Is Blasting Russia’s Offshore Platforms On The Black Sea (msn.com)

    Notably, the Ukrainians struck the rig with one of their precious Neptune anti-ship missiles, as confirmed by video the Ukrainian armed forces’ southern command circulated on Monday.

    A locally-made hybrid combining the booster of an anti-air missile, a turbojet for cruising, a radar seeker and a 330-pound warhead, the truck-launched Neptune can strike targets as far away as 60 miles. The Ukrainian navy was still testing the first prototype four-round Neptune launcher when Russian forces attacked on Feb. 23.

    That launcher apparently survived. It, or some additional launcher Kyiv’s engineers managed to assemble, dramatically joined the conflict on April 13, when a pair of the one-ton Neptunes holed and later sank the missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

    The Ukrainian fleet, which no longer possesses a single major surface combatant, has expanded its missile arsenal with new and used launchers for Harpoon anti-ship missiles that the United States and Denmark donated.


    Russians 'in Panic Mode' Over Strikes by U.S.-Supplied HIMARS: Ukraine (msn.com)

    Dozens of Russian ammunition and fuel depots have been destroyed in recent weeks. The HIMARS have been credited with several such strikes, including the enormous explosion in Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast this week, Ukrainian officials say.

    Multiple Russian commanders are reported to have been killed in HIMARS attacks in the past week, according to the Ukrainians.

    Strike Kills Nearly Every Deputy Commander in Russian Division: Ukraine (newsweek.com)

    A strike by Ukrainian forces left all but one of the deputy commanders from Russia's 106th Airborne Division dead, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    A post on the Telegram page of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' communications office said that the deputy commanders were wiped out by HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) fire attacks near Shakhtarsk, a city in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. The one deputy commander who did not die is "in serious condition," the post said.
     
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  8. ursidman

    ursidman VIP Member

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    Have wondered for a while if we are giving Ukraine just enough military aid to keep them in the game while Russia expends it’s treasure, military goods, and personnel so that they come out a significantly weakened opponent.
     
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  9. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    I had a similar thought. Of Course, an equally valid explanation is that we are trying to supply without provoking a reaction that can get out of control. You already have certain Russian generals calling for attacks on the supply chain, which could of course mean the supply chain within Ukraine, but it also could mean jeopardizing Western personnel depending upon the specifics.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2022
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  10. ursidman

    ursidman VIP Member

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    Yep. That too - possibly just a fortuitous outcome to not starting WWIII.
     
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  11. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    A concern is will Russia become more desperate.
     
  12. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    Agree 100%. Its a tough balance. Plus keeping the alliance together, which is a tough lift
     
  13. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Germans are busy ordering wood stoves to get ready for a cold winter. There are 2,000 manufacturers of wood stoves and wood-burning fireplace inserts in Germany. Many Germans started stockpiling wood even before the conflict in Ukraine erupted. Only one bit of bad news: for stoves being ordered now, they likely will not arrive until next spring or summer. Looks like Merkel's green energy policies will be going up in smoke.

    In Germany, people wait a year for a fireplace

    (St. Augustine is a tiny town outside of Cologne best known for an old monastery converted into a seminary, in case you were wondering. Germany does not plan its house heating in Florida.)
     
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  14. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Putin starts indoctrinating children as early as the first grade to help them appreciate Russian "traditional values". You know, invading, killing, and maiming.

    Putin Aims to Shape a New Generation of Supporters -- Through Schools

    It's good to see that the Great Humanitarian has spared the kindergarten kids from all the blood and gore. Because that might be going too far.

     
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  15. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    ^ More from the above article:

     
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  16. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    I think it’s wise that Russia is engendering in its children such passion and enthusiasm for the war. At the rate they’re going through soldiers, Mother Russia is going to have to call up those second graders before they know it.
     
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  17. RealGatorFan

    RealGatorFan Premium Member

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    But, Zelensky also had to purge around 650 employees of the prosecutor's office and other LEO agencies due to being traitors. Putin is showing why he was a genius. He's about to send the world into chaos because of famine. Of the Top 10 wheat-producers in the world, only 1 will have a positive harvest this year. Russia. Russia's harvest will be more than all other countries in the world combined. While the other Top 9 countries on average will be down at least 14%, Russia is having a bumper crop of 7% above normal. Now Putin says he won't use it as a bargaining chip, but does anyone believe he won't? The question remains if Ukraine can harvest their fields because they could turn the tables if they can.
     
  18. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    It’s a good thing our government was wise enough to see the problem back in March and April and used its power to make the obvious economic measures of growing more food this year in order to feed ourselves and our allies, leaving Russia with rotting stocks of foodstuffs on their shelves that no one will buy … Oh, wait, that’s right. It has taken the underrated economic measure of hoping that Russia won’t do what you predict instead. You really have to admire that strategic genius of Jake Sullivan. After all, hope doesn’t cost a thing.
     
  19. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Yup. From March 7th:

    And I'm an idiot.
     
  20. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Do we (the US government ) really have the capability to change the food supply as of March or April? If it was obvious that there would be a protracted conflict that disrupted the food supply, then why didn’t futures markets see it? If they did, and the price went up, farmers likely would have planted more.

    Wheat had been increasing already. If that wasn’t enough to cause farmers to produce more, exactly how would the government cause that to happen?

    Wheat is planted in the spring, and winter wheat planted before that. I’m not getting how you think the government realistically should have foresaw this and have the wherewithal to do anything about it.