War in Ukraine

All true. But despots often double down on failure by doing just that: when the war stalls on one front, expand it to another. Napoleon, Hitler, and Tojo all did it. There are probably other examples.

 

Chamberlain, and much of the world, hoped the same thing.

 

True yet the issue is getting everyone on board and NATO much less the remaining nations in Europe are willing to take up arms against Russia. Doing so would mean Europe's goose is cooked without a steady supply of oil, gas, food and rare earth minerals.

Europe is currently feeling the pain much more than the US for that matter. How much pain are they willing to endure is the question.

 

I still think the issue is slightly different- setting up the barriers to preclude Russia from taking up arms against NATO and other European countries. He knows he has a considerable fight now. If he feels like there’s no stomach for more fight, that’s when he broadens the attack.

 

And what do you think we are doing by sending money, troops and weapons to member nations? To this point Putin hasn't touched a single NATO member other than using sanctions in the same manner as the US and NATO. At this point it is a tit-for-tat game that is a stale mate. In the mean time Russia continues to march against Ukraine.

I will add this. If the US is to escalate this war against European and NATO support. The US will never have the support it currently holds now when all is said and done. We will become the object of rancor and disdain if this happens.

 

As to the first part, he marches on but with significantly less progress and at a far higher, debilitating cost than he anticipated, thus preventing further expansion of his warmongering.

As to the second “added” point, I agree completely. We cannot act against contrary to European political will.

 

have to wonder if this is why Putin is using his form of defense appropriations act to direct industries to shift to producing military gear. I read elsewhere that Russia is now using the worlds largest nuclear power plant as a military base to stop Ukraine from attacking Russian equipment and command centers.

Ukraine targets Russia’s ammunition depots, undermining its artillery advantage (kyivindependent.com)

It is an almost everyday occurrence in the Russian-occupied parts of eastern and southern Ukraine. Russia’s ammunition depots blow up, with large fires erupting as tons of ordnance detonate for hours. Some of these incidents cause giant blasts with a radius of hundreds of meters. Now that Ukraine has acquired advanced Western artillery and rocket systems, it has gradually begun a campaign to take out Russia’s key military infrastructure. Over the last four weeks, nearly 20 Russian ammunition depots in Russian-occupied Donbas and Ukraine’s south, including some of the largest, have been hit or completely destroyed.
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On June 15, a massive explosion occurred near the city of Khrustalniy (formerly Krasniy Luch) in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

Explosions continued for days. According to satellite images, the blasts created a destruction zone spanning some 500 meters around the epicenter. The site was one of Russia’s largest ammunition depots, built after Russian forces occupied the area in 2014. In the Azotniy neighborhood in the northeastern part of Donetsk where Russia established ammunition depots through the city, successful attacks have continued on an almost daily basis.

On July 2, Ukraine’s military published a video showing an enormous explosion at another large depot in the city of Popasna in Luhansk Oblast that was being used to supply Russian units near Bakhmut and to the south of the Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Two days later, another devastating blast destroyed a large depot in the city of Snizhne. Three more depots were also hit in Donetsk.

On July 5, another strike hit the Kamaz Center, a large truck repair shop that was being used as a Russian munition base. The Techsnab industrial base in the city of Makiivka was also destroyed on July 6, in which large amounts of stored munitions exploded. Missile strikes have also occurred in Ukraine’s occupied south. On June 14, Ukraine destroyed a depot in Nova Kakhovka, one of Russia’s key bases in Ukraine’s southern Kherson Oblast, occupied by Russia in the early days of the invasion. The same day, another large depot in occupied Kherson, near the city’s central railway station, was also hit.

Another attack on June 29 also severely damaged an ammunition depot near Izium in Kharkiv Oblast that was used by Russia’s 20th Combined Arms Army in its offensives in the region. And another strike on July 4, reportedly delivered by a HIMARS, destroyed one of four Russian military bases in Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a key Russian logistics center in Ukraine’s south.

 

You and I are in total agreement. The hope is that once this is over a more diplomatic solution will be attained as Europe and the rest of the free nations continue to disentangle themselves from Russian dependencies. At that point Russia will have no other choice but to do so.

BTW - this holds true for China as well. There is no doubt Russia and China are the major powers of global concern if a free democratic world is to maintain global hegemony these two powers must be isolated.

The huge lesson the world has learned from globalization is there will never be a single world order and nations will not devolve into a homogeneous land mass without borders.

Genghis Khan, Alexander the Great and others have tried. All failed miserably.

 

I wouldn't say never. We're still very, very young as a species. In less than 10,000 years we've grown from disparate tribes of dozens to vast nations of many millions. Who knows what'll happen in another 10,000 years? Maybe we'll have destroyed ourselves by then, or maybe global unity will become a norm that's only interrupted by periods of disunity.

 

Germany discovers cold showers.

‘The situation is more than dramatic’: Germany is rationing hot water and turning off the lights to reduce natural gas consumption

I may have to take a trip to Germany later this year for work. Anyone know how much firewood the airlines will allow you to pack in your luggage?

 

One thing we both agree on is it is not happening tomorrow in 10,000 years history dictates no. There would have to be massive changes including a single language everyone could agree on. What we do know is no matter how many agencies, bureaucracies or alliances we create placing ultimate decisions in the hands of a few or in the hands of many nations on global scale will not work.

 

Looks like the brave Russians, fighting for freedom, have taken out an entire complex full of Nazis.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/10/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news-live-updates/

 

I think in the short term, you are probably correct. It would take a while for Russia to build up their military for the next invasion. But once that happened, what would stop them? Europe and the U.S. did not respond militarily to the invasion of Ukraine, other than provide weapons and ammunition. We didn't organize the other countries on the chopping block (Poland, etc.) and persuade them to attack Russia. We were not very effective in preventing other countries from buying Russian oil. We had difficulty preventing countries like France from selling parts to the Russian war machine. And we got really nervous when Putin threatened us with nuclear war. We have effectively set the stage for Russia's next invasion. Ukraine was probably going to be Russia's toughest fight, and will be their most rewarding financially--they now control the world's food supply as well as a nice portfolio of steel and rare earth metals. Their economy will bounce back (especially with their newest acquisitions), and they will return to bullying and bribing other countries into resuming trade with them and allowing them into the G8 and the U.N. Security Council.

Capturing Ukraine is not the only goal of Putin. He wants all of the satellite countries that the USSR used to have. To him, it's both a matter of personal pride, and a national security issue in his mind. If he is allowed to win in Ukraine, those other countries are living on borrowed time, IMO. Expanding Russia will be Putin's primary goal, and likely the primary goal of whoever succeeds him, unless the loss of Russian lives is so horrific that the majority of people eligible for military service refuse to fight. And, of course, winning a war helps you forget the price you paid to win. Russia needs to lose this war to put the final nail in the coffin of Putin's plans for expansion.

 

The main issue is Europe is not prepared for a war with Russia for the very reasons you mentioned. A reliance on gas, rare earth metals and food. You can't replenish what you use in a knock down drag out fight.

Sadly for Ukraine this is the nut of the matter and the only solution is to provide Ukraine with the resources that serve as nothing more than instruments of attrition for the US, Europe and Russia. As Russia rebuilds so does Europe and the US. Europe is taking steps in that direction now while the war rages in the Ukraine. All of this takes time and will become a race to the top. What happens after that will depend on Russia and what they choose to do. There is no other choice and the goal right now to extend that time as long as possible.

As for Putin he may not be around in few years and even if he is his options become limited the longer the war rages on. Can't say what any of his potential successors would do. Is there another Gorbachev in wings? We don't know but if there is that person wouldn't reveal themselves (understandably so) at this point in the game.

 

Ukraine defense chief says US rocket systems have been ‘game-changer’ (msn.com)

Ukraine’s defense minister told the Wall Street Journal that the deployment of U.S. long-range rocket systems has been a “game-changer” in the war against Russia.

“We needed to persuade them, to show them proof,” Reznikov told the newspaper of Ukraine’s ability to effectively use the weapons systems. “In the Izyum case, we were precise [in targeting] a Russian command center for aerial operations. It was really precise. Our partners saw it and said, ‘You passed the test.’”

Reznikov also said that the Ukrainian focus needs more supplies such as armed vehicles, tanks, drones, and unmanned aerial vehicles, noting that the drones in use were consistently being jammed by Russian forces.

“We need to refresh our platoons and change them and make replacements also because we also have a lot of losses,” Reznikov said. “We are waiting for more armor, more weaponry from our partners. We need to rebuild some directions and to refresh our fortifications and plan a new operational strategy.”

 

Poland chooses now to air out old (WWII) grievances against Ukraine. So much for solidarity in the face of a common enemy. Biden's diplomats are doing a hell of a job unifying Russia's targets and keeping them focused on the task at hand.

Poland asks Ukraine to confront dark past despite common front against Moscow

Guess what, Poland? You may be next. You might want to think about what is more important, old grudges and historical accuracy, or survival.

 

The date was not chosen by Poland. 7/11/1943 was the start of the Wolyn massacre and it has been a date of memorial for Poland for decades.

Incidentally, the leader of the massacre, Bandera, was recently compared to Robin Hood by the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, which drew a sharp rebuke from Israel since Bandera was a Nazi and killed many Jews along with Poles. The ambassador has since been fired, I believe.