War in Ukraine

Mr Snyder wrote the definitive book on the region. I highly recommend Bloodlands: Europe between Stalin and Hitler. Stalin used starvation as state policy to defeat his enemies and control his own people. Millions of Ukrainians died as a result. It may be about to happen once again.

 

That narrative is not reaching those who'll suffer from starvation though. The issue is that the Russian narrative is at least partially based on truth. The port of Odessa is heavily mined by Ukraine to prevent a Russian amphibious assault. Turkey earlier had offered as a neutral party to clear the mines and escort grain shipments, but Ukraine has gone on record to shoot down the plan. Obviously you can't blame Ukraine for not trusting the Russians, but you can see how it looks to the starving nations of the global south.

Russia offers safe passage for Ukraine grain, not responsible for corridors

"Russia on Wednesday said it has offered “safe passage” for Ukraine grain shipments from Black Sea ports but is not responsible for establishing the corridors and Turkey suggested that ships could be guided around sea mines. "

...

"Ukraine fears that de-mining its ports would leave it far more vulnerable to Russian attack from the Black Sea.

“Our military people are against it, so that’s why we have very, very limited optimism for this model,” David Arakhamia, a lawmaker and member of Ukraine’s negotiation team with Russia, said at an event in Washington on Wednesday."


Why the west risks condemning Ukraine to slow strangulation

"Schmidt said: “When you talk to leaders outside Europe and the alliance at the moment then you will realise their perception of the [Ukraine] war is completely different from ours. They might say: ‘Yes, we are not OK with a country invading another.’ But and then comes the big but: ‘It is your sanctions that drive up food prices, energy prices and have a devastating effect on our population.’”

Ann Linde, the Swedish foreign minister, said that during her meetings with Asian and African ministers she also came across a narrative that the west was more engaged in Ukraine than it has been in wars in the south.

Her Austrian counterpart, Alexander Schallenberg, said that in his recent travels in India and the Middle East he discovered that although the EU may have won the information war on Ukraine in Europe, “a very different narrative” existed elsewhere. Outside Europe “we are the culprits, we are the reason for oil, seeds, grain and energy not being on the market or overpriced,” he said. “This is a war in Europe. But there’s another European war, because the shockwaves can be felt everywhere. It’s the first war since the second world war where you can feel the effects globally.”"

 

This article hits the nail on the head. Other nations are looking at it from the standpoint of a world crisis of the EU and the US are the criminals of their demise. These nations enforce and deny the existence of others. They have no compassion let alone regard for anyone else except themselves. In other words these idiots have made everything worse than better for ourselves.

They are the culprits and it matters not which side we align with. We lose either way and that is not a position we want to be in. Who provides the most for existence is where I will align myself. The US is giving dreams Russia is giving reality (send the wheat and oil) neither is acceptable but we choose life versus despair above all else.

 

I read Bloodlands back in 2017. Fascinating and horrifying. I also recommend it.*

*The book, I mean. Not the practices.

 

If Russia stops producing oil, JP Morgan projects the price of oil will shoot up to $380/bbl. That's almost triple what it was in 2008, when gas was $4.10 a gallon. That would probably make gas shoot up to $11 a gallon.

JPMorgan Sees ‘Stratospheric’ $380 Oil on Worst-Case Russian Cut

 

From their perspective, when a war happens near them they suffer while the West is insulated. When a war happens near the West the West suffers while they suffer even more. That obviously seems very unfair to them, and our efforts to pressure the rest of the world to join in our cause is understandably off-putting.

 

Not sure this hypothetical action makes sense. How the hell would Russia’s own economy function if they cut their own oil? Cutting off oil that heads East to China/India is basically cutting off the only thing somewhat insulating their economy from western sanctions… or at least keeping it from internal collapse. The whole thing keeping it going for Russia is finding workarounds to circumvent sanctions for their oil sales, or having friends or fully willing buyers in China and India.

Obviously not much about Putin’s actions seem sane, but not sure there is any rationale for Russia putting the screws on China and India. They need them as allies.

 

Looks like the Kaliningrad situation will be resolved. While Hungary has been exceptionally right leaning, Lithuania has been exceptionally left leaning. Both are presenting issues for the EU and NATO as the requirement of unity is allowing small states to disrupt the agenda of the rest of the block. This is an issue that Russia, China, as well as the US will continue to exploit.

EU Sanctions: Commission to Allow Russia to Resume Transports to Kaliningrad

"DER SPIEGEL has learned that the European Commission intends to publish a clarification on the issue in the coming days. Its key message will be that Moscow will be allowed to use the transit route for all goods, but only limited amounts."
...
"With this solution, the Commission hopes to provide Lithuania with a face-saving route to suspend its current blockade. Nevertheless, some in Vilnius are nevertheless viewing it as a defeat. "Russia has apparently managed to strike fear into the European Commission," says political scientist Dovilė Jakniūnaitė. "It is no longer about a few railway wagons. Now, it looks like threats are paying off for Russia."

"It’s not us that changed position," is a statement heard frequently from sources close to the Lithuanian government these days. And discontent with Berlin is significant. "The Germans have been putting pressure on the EU Commission since June 18 to ensure that the sanctions do not apply to Kaliningrad," says a Lithuanian representative who is familiar with the negotiations. It’s unclear, say some, whether the German troops stationed in Lithuania as part of the NATO contingent would be available if Russia attacked the country or whether they would be withdrawn."

 

I think you misunderstand a nations perspective versus the population perspective,

 

I actually think it’s much simpler than that,

It’s an issue of geography.
For Lithuania or Poland to enforce this blockade, would be a defacto annexation of that isolated Russian territory (an aggression). They can’t block what is effectively Russia to Russia travel without being an aggressor against Russian sovereignty as it stands on this map. Allowing this “exception” just means they are bending over backwards to remain in a defensive-only posture. Militarily, I’m guessing it far from optimal to allow Russian supplies to this area should WW3 break out, but the purpose of such compromises is to prevent WW3 from breaking out.

 

Well, consider Russia keeps nukes in Kaliningrad, I doubt transit would be an issue since it'll be one of the first places nuked.

On a separate note, it appears that Ukraine may be changing tactics. According to Russian Telegram channels Ukraine has launched missile strikes against Belgorod and Kursk. Russia OTOH, is rumored to be making moves around Kharkiv, the closest Ukrainian city to Belgorod and Kursk. I wonder if these moves are related. I also wonder if this would be a second front in addition to their moves against Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Bahkmut. It would be odd if Russia were to shift attention now up north.

Belgorod:



Kursk:

 

Here for a moment on a semi okay day. Glad you guys have been keeping the thread up.

I saw where Russia lost some kind of 7 million dollar drone? Yay if true.

Was hoping Putin would be gone already but this seems to be a long haul situation. With all the reports of him being sick I was hoping for the best.

Great video out there of the EU flag being brought in to the Ukrainian Parliament. At least it's something.

Yes I still care about Ukraine but what little brain capacity I have (having issues communicating more and more so we're wondering if there was more than the ocular stroke) I need to save my strength. And there's too much at stake for me not to post as much as possible in the abortion thread.

Will check back later

 

It all depends on your definition of “best way.” If we mean the way that emasculates the Russian armed forces and restores the Ukrainian international borders as quickly and bloodlessly (for Ukraine) as possible, then that way is still direct intervention, including with NATO ground troops. But if we mean also postponing general war with Russia (and probably China) even if it means prolonging the suffering in Ukraine, then economic measures are an essential element of our campaign. You correctly point out that the sanctions also have an ill effect on us and our allies. The answer there is not to drop the sanctions and alleviate the pressure on Russia but rather to mobilize our own economy to offset the effect of the sanctions to our side, especially to NATO partners. That we did not do so right away might have been understandable in February; everyone was shocked that Russia actually did it and was not just posturing again. But what is our excuse over four months into this thing?

Are we not capable of making up the delta in hydrocarbons so that neither we nor our partners need to suffer the effects of the inadequate supply, especially this winter? We know we are, and we have made not the slightest move to do so, to Russia’s delight.

Are we not capable of making up the delta in food shortages that are going to hit this fall when the Ukrainian crops simply are not there? We know we are, and again no such move. Spoiler alert: when the actual famine hits, it will be too late for emergency measures and political narratives about whose fault the starvation is. I’m not a farmer, but I do understand there is a significant flash-to-bang between planning crops and when they are ready to harvest.

I agree with your earlier point that it boggles the mind we have been so slow to provide some of these obviously needed weapon systems to Ukraine. The only reason I can think of is that the Administration is still beguiled by this fantasy that Russia is negotiating on our behalf with Iran, and consequently we need to placate Russia at least a little. But if that idiot Jake Sullivan can’t see that both the Russians and the Iranians have played him for time by now, then he’s never going to see it.

 

Unfortunately, I am still a serving member of the armed forces. That means, at the risk of what remains of my career, I can’t use contemptuous language to speak about members of Congress from either party. An example of contemptuous language would be, say, to wish any useful idiot of Putin — male or female, Democrat or Republican, whether they understand they’re a useful idiot or not — who wants the “Russians to win faster” to be dropped into Donbas, bound and gagged, as a sex slave in a Russian Army brothel (as so many Ukrainians are today) in order to give Russia the aid and comfort in person that useful idiots wish from the distance and safety of the United States. Using that kind of contemptuous language would be unbecoming an officer, so I won’t do it.

 

Well, I know that, and you know that. I think deep down most other Americans know that, too, but the inconvenience of dealing with the realities of that is too much for elements of the extreme left and extreme right. So they will themselves to disbelieve where this is going. “Maybe if Putin just gets what he wants this time — and we put up a half-ass resistance to placate the center — he will just be magically satisfied, and we can go back to our fantastic worldviews like nothing happened.”

 

Payers that G-d heals you immediately!

 

To answer your question, the answer is no. We do not have the capacity to make up the delta. For gas, Europe mainly receives Russian gas via pipelines. To get gas from us it needs to be liquified. The amount of infrastructure required to liquefy, transport, then gassify that much gas is absolutely astronomical, and it'll be invested in a dying industry.

As for agricultural items, crop takes time to grow, I'm sure you know that. You can't just convert say corn to wheat in the middle of a season. In addition, if demand for food doesn't change, but supply has decreased, then you need to increase supply or else you're just picking and choosing which part of the world to starve. While we do have excess farmlands, how do you suppose we can ramp up production in just a few months, to the tune of replacing some 10-20% of say the world's wheat demand? Where are all the extra farm equipment and farmers gonna come from? It would've been a herculean task.