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War in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Jan 21, 2022.

  1. Tjgators

    Tjgators Premium Member

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    Lithuania’s decision to prevent the transit of Russian supplies for Kalinigrad and the Ukrainian missile attack on a Russian oil platform in the Black Sea–may be the tipping point for Russia. I hope not.
     
  2. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    No doubt oil is a big issue in the grand scheme of this war. Fact is the US has our own problems much less trying to solve the problems of European nations.

    Freeport LNG explosion raises risk of European winter energy crisis
    Freeport LNG, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer in Texas, will shut its doors for at least three weeks, the company confirmed to CNN Business.
    "The cause of the fire at Freeport LNG's liquefaction facility on Quintana Island remains under investigation," Heather Browne, a company spokesperson, said.
    Not only do we need LNG for ourselves supplying the European community with LNG reduces our own availability.

    Then we have this little jewel the latest from Janet Yellen. Price caps sounds like price controls to me and Janet wants to do this on a global level. IE telling Russia you can sell only so much of your oil and it is only worth this much while the rest of the world gets to sell oil at market prices. I can see how well this will go over. The US thought they could get away with strangling Russia based on the dollar for oil hegemony and that went over like a lead balloon once the impact on European nations was understood.

    Fact is the European nations did this to themselves and now want they the US to bail them out. The belief that the US is the richest nation on the planet and the only nation that can solve a world crisis is having a harsh reality check.

    U.S. in talks with allies on Russian oil price cap, says Yellen
    The United States is in talks with Canada and other allies to further restrict Moscow's energy revenue by imposing a price cap on Russian oil, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday.

    "We are talking about price caps or a price exception that would enhance and strengthen recent and proposed energy restrictions by Europe, the United States, the UK and others, that would push down the price of Russian oil and depress Putin's revenues, while allowing more oil supply to reach the global market," Yellen told reporters in Toronto.
     
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  3. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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  4. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    First, LNG is liquified nat gas. It is liquified for export. We have more nat gas than we can pipe. we don't need to import LNG and put it thru process to turn back to nat gas. The rest of your comment reads like Putin propaganda
     
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  5. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    Call it propaganda if you want fact is LNG supplies for Europe are a big issue.

    You are right that the US does produce LNG for export and we produce LNG for use here in the US as well. To suggest we do not use LNG at all is a fallacy. LNG comes from natural gas and the US uses both. Even if the US were to export all of the LNG that is in excess it will still not satisfy the needs of Europe. Keep in mind LNG doesn't keep the transportation sector running. With 7 LNG processing plants and one now offline doesn't bode well.

    Liquefied natural gas
    In the United States, some power plants make and store LNG onsite to generate electricity when electricity demand is high, such as during cold and hot weather, or when pipeline delivery capacity is constrained or insufficient to meet increased demand for natural gas by other consumers. This process is called peak shaving. The power plants take natural gas from natural gas pipelines, liquefy it in small-scale liquefaction facilities, and store it in cryogenic tanks. The LNG is regasified and burned by the power plants when needed. Some ships, trucks, and buses have specially designed LNG tanks to use LNG as fuel.
    ..........
    The Everett regasification terminal near Boston, Massachusetts, receives most U.S. LNG imports, and in 2021, it receved 99% of total U.S. LNG imports, all from Trinidad and Tobago. New England states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont, may have significant pipeline constraints when heating demand increases substantially during periods of very cold weather. LNG imports help to meet natural gas demand in New England because the region currently has limited pipeline interconnections with the Northeast and other U.S. natural gas producing regions.
    ..........
    LNG export terminals consume some of the natural gas delivered to the facility to operate the liquefaction equipment. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that about 8% to 10% of the volume of natural gas delivered to LNG export facilities is used for liquefaction, with additional volumes used for processes not directly related to liquefaction at export terminals, such as on-site power generation

    Use of natural gas
    The electric power sector uses natural gas to generate electricity and produce useful thermal output. In 2021, the electric power sector accounted for about 37% of total U.S. natural gas consumption, and natural gas was the source of about 32% of the U.S. electric power sector's primary energy consumption. Most of the electricity produced by the electric power sector is sold to and used by the other U.S. consuming sectors, and that electricity use is included in each sector’s total energy consumption. (The industrial and commercial sectors also use natural gas to generate electricity, and they use nearly all of this electricity themselves.) Natural gas accounted for 38% of total utility-scale U.S. electricity generation by all sectors in 2021.
    SO, CAN THE UNITED STATES GET MORE GAS TO EUROPE?
    Yes, but it would not equal what Russia sends to Europe, and it will largely involve rerouting existing shipments.

    "We expect near-term measures to support European LNG imports to rely on the reallocation of existing supply," analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

    A senior U.S. administration official said the effort will involve arrangements with allies around the world, both producers and consumers, to route shipments to Europe.
     
  6. dingyibvs

    dingyibvs Premium Member

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    I think the Russian response to Kalinigrad blockade will be the key. The condition for allowing the Baltic states to become independent back in the days was access to Kalinigrad. If Russia strikes Kaleipeda terminal, I wonder what the response from NATO would be.
     
  7. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    Not allowing freedom movement through one’s own territory and conducting a blockade are two different things … except in the rare circumstance that one’s own territory completely surrounds the area in question, such as Italy does to Vatican City. Occupied Koenigsberg still has access to the sea, so Lithuania is not blockading anything yet.
     
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  8. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    That is in interesting and perhaps possible scenario, but you discount any damage to Russia during this long game, which could be as or more severe than that the West will face (particularly food issues). Recall the old Soviet Union was in Afghanistan for 10 years before it went slinking home with its tail between its legs. Also, NATO has experience successfully playing the long game (between 1950 and 1989), which broke the back of Russia economically. I'm not sure that Russia wouldn't cry Uncle first in the scenario.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2022
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  9. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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  10. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    Russia was in Afghanistan for 20 years the US for 10 years.

    True Russia will suffer along side everyone else. Third world countries will suffer the most. When one takes into account the need for fuel that is required in darn near every aspect of first world countries who will blink first? The American public has had it with gas prices and inflation. European nations are fairing no better if not worse. The only thing left at this point is place a bet to see who blinks first.
     
  11. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    I believe it is the responsibility of the non-European democracies to assist Europe in withstanding the economic blow that they will surely see particularly as Summer ends and the need for heating oil and gas grows. If we had not helped them post WW2, they would already be speaking Russian. It is to the entire worlds' benefit to ensure Russia doesn't continue to cudgel smaller nations at their whim just like it was in 1945. I despair that we might not have the leadership necessary to curtail Russia/Putin's fancies in place in the US at the current time, however.
     
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  12. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    The unfortunate part in all of this is the rest of the world short of NATO and handful of other nations could care less. South American and African nations see this as a dispute they do want to get involved in. As for those nations that do care it is obvious that all of the European nations need help in some form or another. What we do know is the US cannot support them all. We don't have the resources.
     
  13. Crusher

    Crusher GC Hall of Fame

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    Granted not all nations are in a place where they could help that much even if they wanted to. However, if we are in a situation where its China and Russia (and I think that is becoming more and more clear to all) against the rest of the world that can help....then my money is on the rest of the world.
     
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  14. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Russia was there for 10

    US was there for 20
     
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  15. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    In some sense I might agree but the rest of the world has not caught up yet from an economic let alone technological aspect. From their perspective this is still a Russia / Ukraine issue. When the war comes to their door step be it forced by NATO, the US, China or Russia they might give a damn. On the other hand they just might say you all go ahead and kill yourselves as we sit by patiently waiting for saner minds to come to grips.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2022
  16. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    My bad.
     
  17. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    As I posted a few pages back, the fire at Chanieere is looking awfully suspect to a conspiracy theorist. Knocking that export offline helps Russia. It drives down price of nat gas here though on a temp basis
     
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  18. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Russia's invasion of Ukraine has complicated the situation in Syria. They have had to move troops and equipment from Syria to Ukraine and abandon a couple of cities. Apparently, Iranians moved in and took over parts of these towns, and a group backed by the U.S. has also moved in. This provides Turkey with an opportunity to move in and "liberate" those cities and send back some of the refugees that moved to Turkey. It also opens the door for a potential move against nearby Aleppo, which is currently part of Assad's portfolio.

    Distracted Putin Is About to Tumble Into a New Bloodbath, Officials Warn

     
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  19. dingyibvs

    dingyibvs Premium Member

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    You realize that much of those parts of the world already speak an European language, or at least have them as one of the official or sub-official languages, right?