War in Ukraine

Many tweets about a Severodonetsk (sp) with Foreign Legion troops that will not like.y retake the city nor prevent its ultimate fall but has been a remarkable success. Caught Rs by surprise and inflicted massive costs on taking and holding the city

 

France has decided to take a stand in the war -- to support Russia. The French company Thales (whose largest owner is the French government) makes thermal imaging equipment for Russian tanks and other equipment, and has continued to sell to Russia after the sanctions were announced. They are trading with Russia under a loophole that allows companies to fulfill contracts agreed to before 2014, even though the equipment they sold was not even designed until 2016.

French arms firm busts sanctions to help Russia build weapons

 

Real surprise. They’ve always been an unreliable and situational ally.

 

But they're European, I'd think they get more of a say in how to proceed in an European war than we do. I mean, what has Germany done to support the war effort? They're still importing a massive amount of Russian gas, and has been reluctant to give any weapons to Ukraine. I think the most they've done is giving them some obsolete air defense systems, no?

Putin feels that the West's resolve will weaken because this is an American proxy war with Europeans bearing the brunt of the cost. He'll continue to exploit this disparity war goes on.

 

I’m not sure I agree on the why, but I certainly agree that Putin thinks he can outlast Western and Ukrainian will to resist. The Western powers are already getting “tired” even though it’s Ukraine bearing the brunt and consequences of this war.

 

seems like weapons of war should not be included in any loopholes

Macron continues to insist that Ukraine must give Putin a way out. Ukraine's response is he can follow the same roads tog et out that he used to get in but Russia needs to get out of Ukraine.

meanwhile Russia lost another General trying to lead the fight

Russian General Killed After Personally Leading Attack: State Reporter (businessinsider.com)

 

I tend to agree with the Ukrainians on this point. If Russia wants a face-saving out, then the best I would offer is Ukraine’s word not to try to join NATO in exchange for full Russian withdrawal from all of Ukraine. They can declare victory if they want, but we all know what Russia really wanted from this war.

 

I would like for you to explain what "Russia really wants"?

Many things have been kicked around:

Putin wishes to return Ukraine and Eastern Europe back to post WW2 Soviet Union boundries, starting with Ukraine and extending to NATO countries formerly under Soviet Union control.

Putin wants to "rid" Ukraine of "Nazi style facists".

Putin is just power mad / crazy.

The Russian military industrial complex wanted to test and practice hardware.

Putin is "dying" of cancer or some disease and wants to restore Russia to "former" glory prior to his demise.

Putin is simply a bloodthirsty bully and wants to flex his muscles

The eastern territories of Ukraine are "pro-russian" and wish to return to where they "want to be".

NATO has consistently implemented aggressive foreign policy since the collapse of the former Soviet Union and it's sphere of influence and Putin is challanging that effort.

I've read these, there are probably many more.

Whats your take?

 

My take is the full subjugation of Ukraine. This will include the annexation of much of Eastern Ukraine, perhaps as much as the entire Left Bank. The rest forms a rump state, ostensibly neutral but really a vassal state similar to Belarus. That’s what I think the political/military end state desired is for this campaign against Ukraine. As to what the follow-on steps for Russia’s ultimate plan, I have some guesses, but I imagine they are as good as yours.

Edit: That doesn’t mean that some of the other “reasons” you listed are not also true (minus, of course, the darkly amusing absurd accusations about Nazis left over from WW2), but I think some of those reasons are separate from Russia’s national goals, which is what I was referencing.

 

Soooooo Putin destroys the physical infrastructure of a big part of the Ukraine........for? A security buffer?, from invasion by Poland and the Baltic States??

OK NATO, but funny, when the Soviet Union dissolved it sure seemed many nations under the former Soviet sphere opted for NATO, not the other way around.

Whats the end game? More Agricultural lands?

 

Sound questions. The things Ukraine has that Russia wants is, as you suggested, space between NATO and Russia, enormous agricultural potential, fairly strong industrial base, lots of manpower, and more access to the Black Sea.

 

I think the farmlands are a small bonus. Putin wants a puppet state that responds to Russian demands first and foremost. He wants the exotic metals mining that Ukraine is known for. He wants the steel production to replace all the tanks that are being destroyed. And he wants a buffer from NATO countries (also known as successful countries that make the Russian economy and system of governance look inept). He is not scared of his neighbors invading Russia--he is scared of his neighbors being more successful than Russia, which would make the Russian people think they need a new dictator.

Farmland is a bonus because he can demand that food be sent to Russia if Russia needs it, or withheld from other countries if it helps Russia's diplomatic efforts.

Russia by itself has an economy that is based way too much on oil and gas, with a secondary income based on weapons sales. Stealing industries from neighbors is a quick way to diversify the economy. Putin's motto: if you can't make it, and you can't fake it, it's time to take it.

 

Putin Ally Gets 'Pleasure' From Waging War, Tells Russia to Take Europe

Yeah, good luck with that, spanky. Russia wants no part of a conventional war with NATO. (nuclear either for that matter, though that doesn't end well for anyone).

 

they are good cooks though

 

I’m curious how these tough guys intellectually reconcile their “Yeah, we’re bad asses who take on anyone!” vibe with their “We’re victims of the West! If they attack our poor helpless forces engaged in innocent conquest of our neighbor, then we’ll use nuclear weapons and hit the reset button on the planet!” vibe.

 

This is the contradiction inherent in all authoritarian nationalism, you have no real ideological competition over the nation at home, but there is the inevitable competition of nations they desire to bring about. At home you can talk about conquering Europe and defending civilization, abroad, you get your ass handed to you by a Ukrainian with a 50 year old anti-tank weapon. You have to invent a reason that you cant even take out Ukraine, like some conspiracy of 'the West.'

 

where are the missile defense systems? are they useless versus cruise missiles or just not deployed? doesn't make much sense to ship weapons in only to put them in a warehouse and watch them get blown up. russians have satellites and spies too. they can track weapons shipments

 

Unfortunately, that is part of the game. Air defense is part of the solution, of course. But so are basic protection measures, such as distribution of weapons caches to multiple locations, using decoy convoys, hardening storage facilities, and camouflage. All of those things are cheaper and require less technical skill than giving the Ukrainians top-tier air defense.