My answer is yes … to the risk, not to the nukes, of course. We are already risking Russia using nukes at our current level of involvement; I propose increasing that level modestly but steadily. I think there are a lot of steps between what we are doing now and full-scale intervention in Ukraine. But we need to slowly, deliberately turn up the pressure on Russia if for no other reason than to make them believe they do not have all the time in the world to subjugate Ukraine. Some of these steps are informational/diplomatic, and the purpose is to make Russia believe the tone and thinking has changed in DC, and intervention may be a possibility if this war drags on or gets more brutal: Replace Sullivan as National Security Advisor with someone universally recognized as a serious player in the field, such as James Mattis. Use more qualified language in the briefings, such as “The U.S. does not believe that armed conflict with Russia over Ukraine is necessary at this time.” Request congressional authorization to use force against Russia in Ukraine under certain well defined circumstances, such as the use of nuclear weapons; throw in some conditions related to Article V; some more vague language that gives the President some discretion. Economically, turn up the pressure to embargo not only Russia but those countries that continue to trade war materials with Russia or buy their fuel. Make China, India et al choose, openly. And of course we need to mobilize our own economy to replace the gaps of food and fuel this war is causing to us and our partners. Militarily, put the forces in Europe necessary to give Russia serious pause about continuing the war; specifically, two armored divisions to reinforce the light infantry division currently in place, and sufficient airpower to establish a no-fly zone if and when the President decides. Establish military hospitals in Eastern Europe and take charge of as many Ukrainian battle casualties as we can to reduce pressure on them. Advise Russia that its blockade of Ukrainian ports is adorable but does not apply to U.S. flagged ships; our ships will get in and out safely, period. This list is not exhaustive and could be undertaken relatively quickly without firing one shot at Russia.
Smart artillery changes the metrics though. One shot, one hit doesn't require as many shots as 10 shots, one hit.
Things must not be going well for the Russians. Really wonder how many troops they can keep throwing at this. These stories have to be making it thru the ranks. Russia "refusing" to risk equipment to evacuate wounded in Ukraine: Report The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far. Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines," the ISW analysis explained.
EU agress to ban Russian oil imported via ship. That cuts about 2/3 of the EU imports. Time to lean on India and China European Union leaders agree on partial embargo of Russian oil
The German blitzkrieg millions strong advancing thousands of miles into Russia couldn't stop them from regrouping, I think you may be expecting a bit too much of the Ukrainians. Indulge in a bit less propaganda, perhaps you'll have some realistic expectations next time.
Russia lost 20 million people in that invasion, no chance their people let even one percent of that happen today. Not to mention Germany got bogged down with supply line problems and a brutal winter they had to endure. Russia will face that in Ukraine this winter if it goes that long. But more importantly, it’s a lot different when you are defending your land vs. trying to take someone else’s. having said all that, I have said all along Ukraine faced an uphill battle. Outnumbered, against an enemy whose tactics basically put winning over humanity and decency and willing to go years if they have to. The questions with Russia are: Will Putin be unseated by those whose interests are being harmed? Can their war machine sustain through the sanctions? If the rumors of Putin’s health are true, what happens if he becomes incapacitated before it’s over?
That's not gonna work. There's only so much oil produced in the world, so if a major producer like Russia cannot ship oil out, then that means someone somewhere is not getting oil. When a country doesn't have the energy supply it needs, critical goods are not produced or transported, and people die. The way to get it to work is by producing more oil (or use less oil), making up for Russian production. Since Biden isn't willing to produce substantially more in the states and the ME is not on board, then all we're really doing is just shifting from a more efficient energy trading network to a less efficient one.
Sure about Biden? FACT SHEET: President Biden’s Plan to Respond to Putin’s Price Hike at the Pump | The White House
It’s a minimal impact on world supply. Russia is about 8.5 percent of the world market. Half of their exports go to China, so lower that to 4.25 percent. Then this only covers 2/3 of that, so now it’s 2.8 percent of the world market. Add to that India will probably pick some of it up on the cheap again, and it’s really small. And the higher prices will easily curtail it by that much. The harder part are the supply chains for Europe that have to be created or expanded. Now if China comes along, that’s another story.
I would imagine that when the price of oil gets high enough, the middle east will get on board. That has always been the case in the past. OPEC members have never been good at keeping promises when there are major profits at stake.
Russia “Regrouping” isn’t considered the reason they stopped and reversed Germany’s advance in ww2. Which russia did do before invading Donbas. And what insights do you have to deem everything we see as “propaganda”?
Biden cannot produce the manpower, talent, pipe, frac sand, pipelines, truck drivers needed to ramp oil production up. Neither can he get capital to invest unless he gives them some degree of certainty that there will be amarket for the big capital projects that move the needle on production. What he could do is tap the SPR and ask others to do the same while he contracted with deepwater drillers to buy that same oil back 18 - 30 months from now when those GOM wells would start producing. Venezuela, Iran, could add to world supply if they were free to do so. What i suspect will happen is that India and CHina will buy that oil that the EU is refusing which will decrease world demand on the global supply. India/China will be the winners here, Russia will lose some as they will have to discount the oil to India and Cina
We must have different definitions on what "substantially more" means. From 2016 up until COVID hit we had been increasing production at a rate close to 1 million bpd per year. Our current production is at 2018 levels, meaning increasing by ~1 million bpd per year for 2 years will only get us back to pre-COVID levels. I meant that you aren't gonna get India and China to play along, which you appear to agree. Major shifts in political alliances are afoot in the Middle East, and it's been going on since before the Ukraine war. There's gonna be more than just profits involved. The prices are already high enough for them to open the spigots, there's a reason they haven't. I read widely, and have been long before this incident so I also have an idea of what theories are well known and which are invented just in time to bamboozle the domestic audience who had just learned how to find Ukraine on a map. CNN is still my home page and my starting point, but for domestic news I'll balance it with some reading on the opposite spectrum, e.g. Fox News, then some foreign news websites which I deem to be fairly neutral e.g. Der Spiegel. For this particularly war I'd balance CNN with RT, then some foreign news sources primarily from Asia e.g. Asian Times, SCMP. For SM I don't bother with Twitter, it heavily censors Russian information and I've given up on it since it banned Trump anyway. For however much I despise Trump and all his lies and disinformation, I'm far more scared by a private company's ability to de-platform a president. I actually don't use much SM at all for this war, just too much misinformation from all sides, and since I don't understand Russian/Ukrainian even the first hand accounts I can't verify. But if anything, I'd glimpse some info from Telegram from time to time.
What major political shifts do you believe are occurring? Are you referring to KSA and Israel cooperating more or ?? KSA doesn't like Biden because he called them out on the whole murdering a journalist thing and the restart of the Iranian nuclear talks. imo, when OPEC sees demand side destruction that may lead to acceleration of long term demand reduction they will open the taps a little. I do wonder how much spare capacity that KSA really ahs though as their watercut from their wellfields has been increasing and they haven't been developing a lot of new fields.
Hopefully Biden's military advisers can talk some sense into him. Although the long-range MLRS systems are capable of hitting targets in Russia, the primary reason that Ukraine needs them is so that it can attack Russian military targets in Ukraine from long-range especially Russian artillery. The MLRS systems could be a game changer in those parts of Eastern and Southern Ukraine where the Russians have been making gains.
Don't know if this will show. If it doesn't- the text reads "On Russian state TV, they discuss not only what it would take to destroy the United States, but also how many Ukrainians have to be massacred. One lawmaker came up with a figure: 2 million. No one in the studio blinked or objected—including the host, who is himself a Duma member."
Text reads looting on a grand scale, and it's of a tweet talking about Russia stealing coiled steel, etc.
"#BREAKING Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia ditches referendum on joining Russia, leader says"
Again, what do these borscht eating fools think would happen to mother Russia if they tried to do that? idiots. The two million have to be massacred thing is disturbing though. Anyone care to continue carrying water for the butchers in Moscow?
