War in Ukraine

I (we) appreciate the updates!

 

People need to stop applying lessons from daily life to international affairs. The world operates very differently when there's no higher authority to enforce rules.

The explosion is very small, probably from a small mortar or small rocket. The odd thing isn't the lack of a sizeable crater, but the fact that those weapons have limited range so they're only used near the front line, and this area doesn't seem like it's just a few kms from the frontline. Still, it's war, I'm sure there are many possible explanations aside from it being staged.

 

Yeah, we "made" him do it. Give me a break.

 

Well if it ever does come to nuclear orders, hope Russia has another one of these guys.

Vasily Arkhipov - Wikipedia

 

We made a move that he perceived as a threat, and he acted upon it. Nothing more, nothing less. There's no right or wrong about it. I mean, there is, it just doesn't matter.

 

Where does right and wrong not matter: his perception or his actions?

 

Ukraine farm thefts: Russians steal vast amounts of grain and equipment, threatening this year's harvest - CNN

 

A tad disappointing--I wouldn't call it 'extreme' for reasons set forth below.

Yes, I believe this is what motivated the Pope's comments. Had the Pope piled on and chastised Russia, there would be nothing to discuss at all. Putin would tell Pope to go fly a kite, and get in line.

By echoing the Russian narrative, he keeps the lines of communication open, thereby leaving the prospect of achieving a peaceful resolution.

As I posted way up thread, pride is an enormous factor here. No peaceful resolution comes about without Russia saving some face in this debacle, somewhere, somehow. The likelihood of the Pope facilitating any kind of peaceful resolution, is certainly slim, but still at least a hair above absolute zero, if he doesn't make that statement.

jmho/fwiw.

 

Many an unarmed person has met his demise at an armed person's perception that he/she was going for a firearm. How much do you suppose the distinction b/t perception and reality matter to the person who was shot?

Just saying, because as the case here illustrates....more attention should have been paid to possibility of mis-perception. I mean, we have a war, that prolly could have easily been avoided...but far more saliently, is to take note for the future--by which I mean now--b/c the next *misperception* here, could very well result in a volley of ICBM's....

At that point, who gives a flying @#$#$ who's to blame, and who gets to cry innocent vic?

 

A back peddle.

That's a good sign. Proud Putin swaller'n some pride, and actually showing some semblance of self-consciousnesses and inclination towards something resembling diplomacy.

Now, if only we can figure out a meaningless but non-humiliating face saving out for him to latch onto and skirt his ass back home...he might just be ripe for taking it.

 

So anyone that comes near someone with a fire arm must forfeit all their rights of self determination?

 

So long as Russian face-saving takes the form of all Russians in all of Ukraine saving their faces to the Russian side of the Russian border, then I have no issue with giving the Russian a face-saving out. Any “face saving” that includes Ukrainian territory, including Ukrainian territory stolen since 2014, is a non-starter. I would prefer to go to war, and that’s what I would tell the Pope if he was sitting across from me. If he thinks he can persuade Russia to fully withdraw in exchange for a solemn oath of Ukrainian neutrality, then fine. But let’s not full ourselves; he can’t. He might as well be more like John Paul II and less like Pius XII and make sure he is on the right side of history.

 

Here's one: Ukraine agrees not to join NATO, Russia withdraws entirely from Ukraine, and agrees to respect Ukraine's sovereignty; the West agrees to lift sanctions, Russia agrees to pay for Ukraine's reconstruction. De facto, that amounts Russian defeat, but it gives Russia/Putin an out, and something to point to, to claim victory (i.e.--NATO not abutting Russia's border). It's a hard sell, and frankly premature, but it's a very plausible resolution to this mess.

jmho/fwiw.

 

Not the point. The point, is that you can't negotiate with a bullet--once you're shot, you're shot, and it doesn't matter whether the shooter misunderstood your intentions, or understood you perfectly...

 

I would be satisfied with those terms. The current Russian regime would not. In order to have such a resolution, first the Russian military must be decisively beaten in the field (not likely but plausible) and second the Russian regime would have to collapse (far more unlikely but not impossible).

I do not think Putin can politically accept anything less than official Ukrainian recognition of Crimea and most of the Left Bank being ceded to Russia, international recognition of the conquest, and lifting of the sanctions.

There is quite a delta between those two end states, and tens of thousands will die before we see one or the other.

 

Yeah, Pope Francis is hardly likely to broker a peace (Putin isn't even Roman Catholic--he doesn't view the Pope as any kind of authority). But the Pope may facilitate communications between Moscow and the West, and maybe somewhere along the lines, somehow, we get there.

Quite frankly IMO, Russia does NOT pose nearly as big a threat to the West or the World for it's pipe dream imperial aspirations, as it does a threat to instability as an agent of chaos.

 

Russia already agreed to respect Ukraines borders when Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes.