I think you're working off a false premise. It's only a no win situation with the current status quo. We need to step up Ukrainian support appropriately so they win. Every passing day means Ukraine will require more support than yesterday. The time is now if we want to avoid putting our men and women in the mix.
I don’t agree that this absolutely must be a no-win situation for Ukraine. I agree that it probably will be if we fail to stand up for Ukraine. Presently, we are failing. Except for people who are military adventurers who simply want to fight anyone, anytime, anywhere, the overwhelming majority of people do not want to be in a hot war with Russia or China. Want has little to do with it. I would much rather reset the clock and have Russia not invade Ukraine. Is that an option for me? When you come across a sexual assault in progress do you stop to think whether you want to fight the man committing the assault?
I don't see it that way. Regardless of the resources we throw at Ukraine the numders don't add up. The Mouse That Roared is a fanciful thought.
If the war lasts long enough the Russians will win. They have more manpower and more weapons even taking into account the weapons that we are providing to Ukraine. That being said how long will it be before the Russians decide that they can no longer stomach seeing their sons, brothers and husbands being used as cannon fodder to satisfy Putin's ego? So far Putin still has the support of the majority of Russians. That will not last indefinitely. For an example see the Soviet experience in Afghanistan. Said it before, Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine based on the models of Soviet intervention in Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968. He should have considered the Soviet experience in Afghanistan instead.
Personally, I think the 'current status quo' represents the only win here (sans for Ukraine). Ukraine is serving as Afghanistan in the 80's, and even much more effectively (our Viet Nam--if you were against the US in the 60's-70's, you'd surely be enjoying the fits VN gave us, even though we were not seeking to expand, only to prevent commie expansion--though of course, we were able to recover from VN...I digress...). Russia hasn't been scary since the USSR days, and the USSR was far more formidable a foe than today's Russia (hell, pretty much the same equipment, only now it's decades out dated...); furthermore, Russia essentially hobbled into Ukraine with very little margin of error, and have incurred losses far beyond what they could afford to, such that not only will they pose next to zero forward threat even if they were to conquer Ukraine...but they'll actually be vulnerable to invasion for lack of equipment and resources to defend, with only their nukes to stave any would be invaders off (...and the winters I suppose...). TBL, is that Russia fizzling out in Ukraine--provided we somehow avoid Putin taking a hissy fit tantrum and going kamikaze with his nukes--is about the only actual winning scenario I see here--sadly, that renders Ukraine rather negotiable. Every other scenario would appear to end with Russia's ICBM's being sprayed all willy nilly here and there, as from my perspective, Putin is chomping at the bit to launch a few, consequences be damned... (and presumably, the first whiff we catch of a hot airborne Rusky ICBM, will be go-time from our side...). jmho/fwiw.
There is a huge difference between Ukraine and Afghanistan in that Afghanistan does not and never has produced a significant portion of the world’s food. We haven’t even scratched the surface of the long-term consequences of a protracted war.
Not to mention the Russians stealing or destroying food stores...but I'm sure no one will blame Russia for that part. Or mining fields. It's the evil West making Russia steal food *sarcasm*
Again, I don't think Russia has the resources to play long ball. The longer this thing goes, as it has gone, the less capable Russia is of doing anything. They're barely able to maintain what they've gained--what the hell are they going to do with 40 million defiant citizens, destroyed resources, and very little by way of their own resources to assert any control? This was and remains a horribly miscalculated suicide mission for Russia. Let's not get in the way of their own self destruction. Concur.
Soviet religious principle: communism must be defended anywhere it has spread; if counterrevolution is allowed to succeed anywhere, then it will spread throughout the Soviet Bloc. In this, they were certainly correct, because it did. That was why Brezhnev’s inner circle (even hardliner Andropov) strongly counseled him against getting involved in Afghanistan in the first place. It was not the hill they wanted to die on.
That was the party line. There were other motivating factors, such as strategic location (like Ukraine), and ...opium. They wanted to control the Afghans' lucrative opium industry. IOW...$$$$$$. Why does Russia want to control Ukraine's wheat? $$$$$ SOSDD(ecade).
I read on here I believe that Putin was going to have to have cancer surgery and someone else was going to be temporarily in power. Is that true? If so, that might be the time for the Russians to take power from Putin for good.
The problem is #2 is former KGB too I believe. He was also one of those pushing Putin to invade Ukraine apparently. But maybe someone can get to him easier. Some anesthesiologist may have the future of the world in his hands.
Agreed it's a matter of time and the longer it persists the Russians have the advantage. My guess is Russians couldn't stomach the sight of their sons, brothers and husbands being cannon fodder as you put it anymore than the Ukrainians could the first day the war started. Now if the inference is that the Russian population will revolt against the war and somehow force the Russian government to close up shop and go home it's not going to happen. Same as the American public complained about the war in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. Very little air time and newspaper ink was spent on dissent. A lot newspaper ink and media was spent on heroics and reverence. Yes Putin has support of the public and from my perspective he is using every bit of US intervention to coalesce that support. Hardships blamed on Americans same as hardships blamed on Russians only strengthens the resolve of the populace. In the US it's drill baby drill, manufacture our own products and in Russia it's set up Gasprombank, pay for oil in rubles, the list goes on. The more we blame Russia the more Russia blames the US and each take steps accordingly to counter the actions. As for Afghanistan the Soviet Union was there 10 years. It took Americans 20 years to learn that lesson.
