It’s an interesting question. My thin-slice response (meaning my gut reaction prior to researching what can be researched) is that the most likely answer is either a false-flag attack (albeit a dumb one) or an accident that the Russians have decided to blame on Ukraine, followed only then by a Ukrainian attack that got very, very lucky. There is no scenario for me presently that doesn’t generate several questions that would be difficult to answer with the open-source information available to us. Assuming it was a Ukrainian attack, I’ll take another look at the available data and give a couple of maybes.
This is my thought. The corruption at the core of the Russian government did not skip any facet of the Russian military. We may pay ridiculous amounts for weapons systems and spare parts but they do work. I am reminded of believing Sadam's claims of having weapons and programs when he didn’t. I assume any Russian statements about the size and effectiveness of their military needs to be with a couple of teaspoons of salt.
Well, in fairness, we make intelligence estimates on a number of metrics, not just what the enemy claims. According to those metrics (staffing, equipping, training, desertion rates, etc), the Russian armed forces presented a much more proficient threat in conventional warfare. Putin himself clearly believed it. But you can only project so much how good your team is until they play a game. For a football metaphor, let’s all go back in our heads to 2010 and remember how terrible the Gators performed relative our expectations that were nested within the measurable. Also, very important me to point out again that while Russia has historically underperformed at the beginning of wars they also have shown an impressive learning curve. And they have the manpower and resources to absorb some painful lessons.
The killing of civilians is beyond the pale even for that SOB. I agree with former Ambassador to Russia McFaul: “Putin's barbaric killing in Bucha requires new sanctions immediately oil and gas sanctions; all Russian banks out of Swift; all US companies out of Russia, by the end of the week.”
Man, it’s hard to believe there is anything left economically we haven’t sanctioned. If not, then WTF is our government’s excuse?
I agree. Fire all guns short of troops and nukes NOW (as Biden would say). Russia is done for as a player on the civilized world stage for at least a generation. This is tragic for a people who seem to be forever under the yoke. It is also dangerous, because Putin is as likely as not to double down. A new verb may enter our lexicon, and you heard it here first: “to be Putinized”.
There should be zero excuses to not provide everything and anything plus wreck Russia. They're done. And there's still people supporting Putin/Russia/ saying it's staged or the Ukranians doing it to themselves.
Ukrainians post pictures of burning Russian fighter jet they say they shot down | Daily Mail Online $50 million “ state of the art “ Russian jet shot down by Ukraine.
And of course the Russians are playing the fake news card regarding their crimes against humanity. Ruck fussia.
We shouldn't care either. I don't see how helping Ukraine or even weakening Russia helps us. We're expending a lot of financial capital weaponizing the dollar. This will weaken the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, as well as weaken the financial institutions led and controlled by use to facilitate its use (e.g. SWIFT). Besides reducing our ability to weaponize the dollar and the institutions in a conflict that actually affects our well-being, it may have serious consequences to the way our entire economy operates. If we can't just print paper to pay for the stuff our society has relied on, our lives will change for sure. If you're interested in the war for humanitarian reasons, there are plenty of people around the world say in Africa and Asia we can help bringing freedom and less carnage, and we can help them without damaging ourselves.
It would have taken you less typing just to write, “I learned nothing from Munich or the seven years that followed it.”
EU needs Russian energy. We need the EU on board with sanctions. We cant act unilaterally and risk creating a split within the alliance. We can do things to help them mitigate the costs of LNG vs Russian gas but tools are limited
I wonder if this is really a historical pattern. It happened once in my rather limited knowledge. Germany in WWII started rolling thru Russia and then supply lines and inertia changed and the Soviets rolled up the wehrmacht. Can someone point me to some other examples or maybe even some books that would educate me more.
Although there is an argument that we should care more about people in the third world than we do. Russia is an aggressive, expansionist country which has an evil, (and I am not talking about communism) kleptocratic government. It needs to be stopped. When stopping evil, it is better to do it sooner than later.
Well, the start-up Japanese kicked their ass in the beginning of the century cause Russia couldn't get it's act together, and they also didn't mobilize worth a damn at the start of the great war.
