War in Ukraine

Fair question. The sad answer is there is no point unless we defeat Russia militarily in the field, topple Putin’s government, and have the successor government turn him over as price of peace. Do you see these happening on the current course?

 

They created a special tribunal for that conflict that no longer exists. Under the ICC that prosecutes war crimes, I believe only a few Africans have been convicted. The US government has in fact intimidated and sanctioned the body just for investigating American atrocities in the past:

International Criminal Court - Wikipedia

Long story short, the more powerful you are, the more you get to do whatever you want. Capturing Putin and putting him on trial for war crimes would not go as well as putting some random Liberian official on trial. I could see it if he was deposed and forced into exile. Then he doesn't have nukes behind him.

 

Given Russia's history & the risk of retaking power, if he's overthrown it'll be by assassination.

 

Slobodan Milošević. Milošević has an interesting history. He was charged with war crimes in 1999, forced to resign in October 2000 and arrested by his own government on charges of corruption in March 31, 2001. He was extradited shortly thereafter with the consent of his successor to face the charges of war crimes. Just my opinion, only way Putin will be tried for war crimes by an international tribunal would be if he is forcibly removed from office and is extradited by a successor Russian government. It's also not beyond the realm of possibility albeit still unlikely that he could be tried by a successor government in Russia as was Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

 

Well, that’s my preference, frankly.

 

It has its visceral appeal, but that seems more like the chaos option TBH.

 

Not sure there is a non-chaos option, unless there is some back channel way to get their military top brass to arrest him. Basically a coordinated military coup. But that seems highly doubtful, and the people in those positions probably aren’t exactly friendlies. Even that “best case” is pretty much chaos in the Russian govt. Albeit it might be a quick end to the Ukraine fiasco.

 

I can get with that reasoning. Siege by blockade has also been proven to work. Personally I don't consider killing via starvation any kinder than killing with bullets and bombs, but apparently people all over disagree so I can see why the Russians may do that.

Note that I don't make my assessments out of my feelings of Russian goodness. I think Putin is a ruthless dictator with zero regard for human life, Ukrainian, Russian, or otherwise. But I also think he's intelligent and pragmatic, and it's a combination of those three traits that have allowed him to attain and retain power in Russia for the past 20+ years.

I don't think he's trying to bomb the civilians into submission not because I think he cares about civilian lives, but because it's a strategy that's proven to not work. It doesn't work for the same reason sanctions don't work--the brunt of the suffering is borne by civilians, and civilians don't make policy. I don't think you need to reduce Putin into a caricature of an evil dictator, he's got enough evil in him as it is. Best not to underestimate your opponent and think him an idiot, IMO.

 

I've mentioned it before, such plans are unlikely to work because the other powers in Russia have no leverage over us. They would not want to enter into a deal when they cannot assure that we'd keep our end of it. They're every bit as culpable as Putin in everything we accuse him of, and once they've done their work for us there is no way for them to make sure that we won't make them pay for it. Putin is the devil they know.

 

That is a very big deal. There are very few people in Russia who were more influential on the creation of the oligarchs' economy than Chubais (possibly just Putin). Certainly not a good actor in many respects (he essentially blurred the lines between government, legal business, and illegal business in Russia), but it would be difficult to imagine many more influential figures in the country.

 

Totally my imagination but I wonder if we don't have some back, back-channel communications with some in the Kremlin and friendly oligarchs that might want to do the right thing and limit damage to their country in return for a quick recognition of the new regime including relaxation of sanctions. We had such amazing and correct intel on Russia's build up and justification for the war it makes me wonder if we didn't have some human assets already in the Kremlin that don't support Putin's war. Is this possible? Even if it is, we may never know.

 

Cnn live....fighting back

"Barrage of outgoing fire witnessed in northwest Kyiv

From CNN’s Bex Wright, Ellie Kaufman and Jeremy Herb

CNN teams on the ground witnessed a barrage of outgoing fire late Wednesday evening that occurred in northwest Kyiv.

Earlier on Wednesday, a senior US defense official told reporters that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces back on the frontlines east of Kyiv.

Russian forces are about 55 kilometers (roughly 34 miles) away from Kyiv’s city center to the east, an increase of between 25 and 35 kilometers (roughly 15 to 22 miles) as compared to the same location yesterday, the official said.

To the northwest of Kyiv’s city center, Russian forces are “digging in, and they are establishing defensive positions,” the official said. They have not gotten any closer to Kyiv’s city center along this line, the official added. They remain 15-20 kilometers (9-12 miles) away from Kyiv’s city center to the northwest."

 

Cnn live

"Russian-proposed draft resolution on the Ukraine humanitarian situation fails to pass in UN Security Council

From CNN’s Richard Roth and Laura Ly

A Russian-proposed draft resolution on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine failed to pass in the United Nations Security Council Wednesday evening.

Two countries voted in favor, zero countries voted against, and 13 countries, including the United States, abstained from the vote. Nine votes in favor were required for the resolution to pass.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield spoke ahead of the vote, stating that Russia was once again trying to use the Security Council to “provide cover for its brutal actions.”

“It really is unconscionable that Russia would have the audacity to put forward a resolution asking the international community to solve a human crisis that Russia alone created,” Thomas-Greenfield said. “Russia does not care about the deteriorating humanitarian conditions, or the millions of lives and dreams the war has shattered. If they cared, they would stop fighting.”
The US ambassador added that Russia’s resolution “makes no mention of its role as the sole cause of this crisis. And our vote [of abstention] will show that we will play no part in that.”"

 

Slaughter house 5. Where vonnegut spent the bombing of dresden. In a cool house for slaughtered beef or pigs. He survived the bombing of dresden.

 

I wonder if the Ukrainians were using equipment that they captured from the Russians.
Ukraine captured a batch of Russia's missiles and fired them back at its troops, report says

 

I agree. It makes me wonder about their nuclear deterrent. If only ten percent work, it still would be devastating but not world ending.

 

15,000 troops dead in about a month. It was about 15,000 troops of theirs that died in Afghanistan over about 10 years. We had 4100 died in entire time in Iraq.

This is a disaster of epic proportions for them.

 

Kind of extraordinary to ponder out loud the complete defeat and collapse of his own country 1 month into a war with a much smaller neighbor.