Cnn live...so Russia gets to ask whomever they want to join & anyone helping Ukraine gets threatened with nukes. "Belarus could "soon" join war in Ukraine, US and NATO officials say From CNN's Natasha Bertrand, Jennifer Hansler, Jim Sciutto and CNN staff in Kyiv The US and NATO believe that Belarus could “soon” join Russia in its war against Ukraine, US and NATO officials tell CNN, and that the country is already taking steps to do so. It is increasingly “likely” that Belarus will enter the conflict, a NATO military official said on Monday. .... A Belarusian opposition source said that Belarusian combat units are ready to go into Ukraine as soon as the next few days, with thousands of forces prepared to deploy. In this source’s view, this will have less of an impact militarily than it will geopolitically, given the implications of another country joining the war. A senior NATO intelligence official said separately the alliance assesses that the Belarusian government “is preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine.”"
If it were not for nukes it is likely this would have already escalated into a conventional WWIII with the result being a Russian defeat.
What is interesting about that is that it was very recently that Lukashenko was using military force to suppress an internal opposition to his rule and the fact that he stole an election. I would think you would be hesitant about both undertaking something else that could be unpopular and leaving part of his military out of the country instead of protecting him. I'm assuming that he will, at a minimum, retain a core protecting him that he knows is loyal. But if he has been asked to do so by Putin, he has no choice
Yup. Luka is not popular at all. The only thing keeping him in place is his control of the security aperatus, and even that seemed tenuous a year ago. He'll follow marching orders, but this has the potential for Luka/Moscow to lose their grip on Belarus.
I will defer to John Sipher as to how seriously to take this, and that it is likely a grift, but the reference to "Wind of Change" reminded me of this podcast series Wind of Change | Crooked Media It’s 1990. The Berlin Wall has just come down. The Soviet Union is on the verge of collapse. A heavy metal band from West Germany, the Scorpions, releases a power ballad, “Wind of Change.” The song becomes the soundtrack to the peaceful revolution sweeping Europe — and one of the biggest rock singles ever. According to some fans, it’s the song that ended the Cold War. Decades later, New Yorker writer Patrick Radden Keefe hears a rumor from a source: the Scorpions didn’t actually write “Wind of Change.” The CIA did. This is Patrick’s journey to find the truth. Among former operatives and leather-clad rockers, from Moscow to Kiev to a GI Joe convention in Ohio, it’s a story about spies doing the unthinkable, about propaganda hidden in pop music, and a maze of government secrets. “Wind of Change.” An offbeat eight part investigation
Ww2 all over again...cnn live...hopefully they can kill as many Russians as possible before it turns warmer "Some Russian soldiers have gotten frostbite due to lack of appropriate gear, senior US defense official says From CNN's Oren Liebermann The United States has seen indications that some Russian soldiers have gotten frostbite in Ukraine because they lack the appropriate cold-weather gear, according to a senior US defense official. The lack of proper equipment is compounded by the shortages of food and fuel among Russian forces, the official said, as logistics and sustainment problems continue to plague Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is nearing the one-month mark. “Even in terms of personal equipment for some of their troops, they’re having trouble and we’ve picked up indications that some troops have suffered and [have been] taken out of the fight because of frostbite,” the official said on a call with reporters Tuesday morning. The Russians are also having command and control challenges, which has made communications difficult, further exacerbating the logistics and sustainment problems, the official said"
It's hard to blame from them for that. I mean who could imagine any problems with winter weather for an invading army in that part of the world? Certainly not the Russian army. Is there any historical precedent for that?
A quick google search states that the export cost for Javelin anti-tank missile is $175,000 so this move is very fiscally sound.
The irony is that in a lot of respects it's almost a reversal of World War II with the Russians playing the part of the Germans and Ukraine playing the part of Russia. One of the reasons that the Germans were defeated by Russia in the Battle of Stalingrad is that German Army was not equipped for the Russian winter with a lot of German soldiers suffering frostbite. The Germans also assumed that they would have a quick victory and did not take the necessity of logistics into account. Similarly, the Germans thought that they could bomb and shell the Russians into submission not unlike the way the Russians are trying to shell and bomb the Ukrainians into submission.
That's a win-win ---equipment & a Russian no longer fighting you, and the Russian may come out alive.
If there's one thing the 20th century taught us, it's that's it's nearly impossible to conventionally bomb or shell a nation into submission. A ridiculously painful lesson that the Russians somehow didn't learn.
Reminds me of the British Air Force in the Battle of Britain in World War II. How Ukraine’s Outgunned Air Force Is Fighting Back Against Russian Jets
I think the Russians learned the wrong lesson by believing that they would have the same results in Ukraine that they had when Putin ended the Chechen rebellion by leveling Grozny and when the Russians and their Syrian clients were able to end the Syrian rebellion against Assad by leveling Aleppo.
