War in Ukraine

It’s difficult to see from our viewpoint, because we know the west has no interest in invading Russia. The issue is how does the world look from their viewpoint. This is not to say their viewpoint is correct or justified, just trying to understand it.

It’s interesting that the same reason was offered by the Kaiser of Germany to launch World War I. He feared the encirclement of military alliances, and believed he needed to strike preemptively to prevent being attacked himself.

I don’t know if Putin really fears encirclement or if it’s merely an excuse for expansionism, or possibly a mixture of both. I think during the Cold War the Soviet Block really feared we would attack.

Again, not excusing their heinous invasion. The better we understand someone’s motivation the better we can deal with their actions.

 

Tom Friedman is an excellent reporter who should've stuck to reporting and stay away from commentating.

The end game appears to be in sight:

Ukraine's Zelensky says he has 'cooled' on joining NATO and is open to discussions about control of Russian-backed separatist regions

I think Putin will settle for a neutrality agreement with an expanded Donbass territory that includes a land bridge to Crimea, but not across the Dnieper, but Zelensky's offer is a good start point in negotiations. Russia will probably be open to negotiations when they take Mariupol and encircle Kyiv to improve their positions.

 

Zero chance Putin actually believe western invasion is a threat. Unless he's actually, certifiably, lost his mind.

 

Invasion, no, but attempts to topple his regime backed by hostile and heavily armed forces across the border, yes. You can see on this board the zeal many have in spreading liberal democracy, which would necessitate the toppling of his regime. I think we can all agree that it's most certainly a threat to his regime.

 

Nah. He had complete control over everything. A NATO aligned Ukraine turning their back on Russia to look West wouldn't threaten him militarily. My point.

It may have had a minor destabilizing effect due to Ukranians inside Russia, but thats not a reason to tell the largest country on the continent they can't enjoy western democracy.

 

Right, it wouldn't be a military threat, but I don't think folks like Putin or Xi are concerned about that. As I mentioned above, the threat is to his regime. As liberal democracy spreads across Eastern Europe to his doorstep, he knows what'd be coming next.

As for your second paragraph, what's your goal? Do you believe you're closer to your goal after this or farther away?

 

Except didn't Zelensky offer that in the beginning anyway, and Russia continued ahead? So if Russia "settles" for that they've tanked their economy, exposed their military as being nothing more than rent-a-wrecks unless talking about illegal stuff, and ACTUALLY STRENGTHENED NATO (w/now Finland, Sweden, & Latvia joining, and Kosovo asking for NATO membership AND a permanent US base there) for absolutely no reason.

 

There were a very very small number, mostly from the contested areas/folks that had relatives near the border. But yeah, Russia's so called liberation & justification are ridiculous. They don't bother to explain why that is, either.

 

So sad for Putin and his Mafia thugs.

My goal is to spread freedom and democracy to as much of the globe as possible. To those ends, NATO expansion is good.

 

When did he offer that? The immediately precipitating factor of the war was Ukraine preparing to launch an assault to take back the Donbass region. The slightly less immediate precipitating factor was NATO discussing Ukrainian membership later this year. Ukraine also never even considered giving up a land bridge to Crimea, and I anticipate that to be the most contentious point in the upcoming negotiations.

 

Did what's happening now help that goal?

 

If you know the answer, can you also get me some winning lottery numbers?

 

If you think analyzing international politics is purely a game of chance, you should let the WH know so they can save some money by firing all the analysts.

 

Cool hobby

 

So what are the odds here?

 

What did expanding a military alliance that now includes Hungary and Turkey do to expand freedom and democracy? They are certainly toeing the line on Russia, which seems to be the only thing that matters. What are NATOs actual priorities?

 

We can go back in time and discuss that, but we're here today.

 

Link, please.

 

This would assume Putin negotiates in good faith. So far, nothing has been good faith. He’s effectively holding millions of civilians hostage to get what he wants. State terrorism on a mass scale.

Putin may eventually have no other choice but to settle, as it’s apparent his military cannot hold the entire country (all it can do is destroy it). But I have a hard time believing he’ll settle for parts of Ukraine he already had. Even if it’s “official”, nobody will trust the Russians to abide by their own agreement, and to settle for so little is hardly a “win” for Putin. I don’t see it. It’s pretty obvious he is trying to topple the government and install his own, and if that happens his forces can take their time expelling foreign media, killing resistance fighters, and otherwise subjugating the population. *IF* Zelensky holds on and the Russian forces keep taking losses, then eventually maybe Putin’s hand is forced. It doesnt seem he’s sending “reinforcements”, which is maybe a sign there is a foreseeable end. But this dude may do further civilian slaughters first, let’s not kid ourselves.