War in Ukraine

That article was clearly from former Biden NatSec team members. According to that article the 700k number is from US counting. If you assume 37 month conflict, that number works out to around 630 KIA or WIA a day for the Russians. Not crazy since the front line is 600 miles long.

 

The reason it’s crazy is that Russia has never inserted that many troops into theatre. How can Russia have lost more troops than it has and still be making steady incremental gains ?

 

So you think if a Russian soldier is killed, he is not replaced at all? That the soldiers that are in Ukraine now are the same soldiers that started the conflict?

 

Don’t you think 700k would be all over the hostile towards Russia Western media ? Conversely, video of endless Ukrainian cemeteries are easy to find.

 

So I assume you are now willing to admit that Russia replaces its casualties in Ukraine with replacements. We have a high intensity conflict across a 600 miles front line, where both sides are firing thousands of rounds of Artillery everyday. 650 is not a crazy number for that scenario.

The 700k is being widely reported now that the NYTimes is saying the number came from the US.

 

If you’re pressing me for an estimate, taking into account Russia’s vast firepower advantage (admitted by Ukraine) if Russia has 700k casualties then Ukraine has millions.

 

The AFU is fighting a defensive war most of the time so their casualties are lower. I believe they have said it is around 435k.

 

The outmoded assumption of 3:1 offense vs defense losses based on the erroneous assumption of Russian ‘meat waves.’

 

How is the idea that Russia is attacking in meat waves erroneous?

Even if you believe that, an attacking force is going to have to cross open terrain under fire from an entrenched opponent. Even if you believe the Russians are using combined arms tactics, they are still going to suffer higher casualties due to that. That is not even getting into the US Ukraine Intel sharing relationship that the NYTimes article reported on that said the US is providing detailed information on Russian positions and intentions.

 

Vast artillery and air supremacy to soften Ukrainian positions and advance carefully, attacking in small packets. KIA exchanges have long been 5:1 to 10:1 Ukrainian to Russian. Reasonable (conservative) estimate a million Ukrainian casualties to 200k Russian casualties.

 

The Russians do not have air supremacy. If they did, their fighters would be strafing the front lines and the streets of Kyiv. Their artillery advantage is not vast either. I would call it an advantage and that is about it. FPV OWAD are all across the battlefield which makes massing fires difficult for artillery. So the softening up AFU positions is not as easy as you make it out to be.

The numbers you are suggesting do not make any sense. If Russia had a 5:1 to 10:1 kill ratio advantage when conducting attacks, the war would be over by now and the Russians would be in Lviv. There is no way an attacking force could have that kill ratio and not be rapidly advancing.

 

You’re living in WWII. Russians have been pulverizing Ukrainian positions with FABS for two years.

And you can’t have it both ways. You were earlier disparaging the speed of Russian advances.

 

Virulently anti-Putin news agency in conjunction with BBC has gleefully sought to catalogue every Russian KIA since the beginning of the war …

Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

 

And this is why I blocked who you’re talking to. Might as well argue with a child.

 

^ Pulls cover off to momentarily rage out of his hole.

 

And there is a reason that this conflict has been described as similar to WWI since it is trench warfare. Yes, the Russians have glide bombs but that does not equal air superiority.

I'm not trying to have it both ways. I'm pointing out to you that if the Russians had a kill ratio of 5 to 10 Ukrainians to every 1 Russian, they would not be bogged down along a 600 mile front line that is fairly static. They would be over running the AFU all over the place. It does not make any sense. It's like opening a bank that only offers the ability to provide correct change and says they make their money on volume. (see below)

The link you provided referred to this NYTimes article as "a landmark investigation" and there was zero push back about the Russian casualty numbers.

 

No chance there are 5:1 kill ratios in favor of Russians, let alone 10:1. I'm disappointed if @duggers_dad actually believes that.

 

Russia has only just recently built up its frontline combatants to around 200k in a country the size of Texas. And since you missed it, I again post …

Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

 

You have the US IC that has been working with the Ukrainians for the better part of three years come out and say the number is 700k but you want to go off some random website? Sorry, I'm not playing that game.

 

It defies any common sense that the Russians would have that ratio but still be stuck in along a mostly static front line. It's been almost a year and the Russian still have not been able to take Pokrovsk.