If Russia's economy collapses, I don't see how Russia could continue the war. No pay for the troops means that the troops will only continue fighting if they are foolish enough to believe they are in an existential war. No money to buy weapons and ammo? That could be a problem. If the unpaid Russian troops walk out of Ukraine, Ukraine gets all of its land back. The Russian troops walked out of Afghanistan, didn't they?
I'm o.k. with that. I think Ukraine would be, too. Whether a bankrupt Russia has the ability to bargain for more than that is anyone's guess. The only other thing that Ukraine would likely want is reparations for damages, but they probably understand they won't get it from a bankrupt Russia. They get a little from seized Russian holdings around the world, and will get more from other countries' charity.
My guess is the peace will cost us quite a bit. Rebuilding Ukraine buying Russia’s nuclear arsenal to keep it from being sold in the third world.
Not Manchuria as you mean it. That is Inner Manchuria that you are referring to, and it is already under Chinese control. I am referring to Outer Manchuria, the pink shaded area in graphic I posted, which Imperial Russia seized from Imperial China in (I think) the 1860s. None of that has anything to with Japan or WW2. The CCP considers that region part of historic China, and it is a goal of CCP national reunification.
short of nuclear war, it would seem pretty easy right now if they were so inclined. the whole enemy of my enemy thing seems to be keeping them at bay Geologically, that would appear to be a resource rich area
this isn't good if accurate..ISW doesn't usually blow smoke. will putin drag Belarus into the war Putin Closing In on 'Decades-Long Effort To Annex' Key Ally: ISW Russia is nearing its goal of completely controlling its neighbor and closest ally Belarus, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said. Analysis by the Washington, D.C.-based independent think tank added that the Kremlin is "in the endgame of a decades' long strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus," which will have significant consequences for the West. .............. The Belarusian opposition decried a treaty signed in December between the leaders, which Putin said would allow both countries to use "all available forces and means" as part of the countries' mutual defense obligations.Franak Viačorka, senior adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Belarusian opposition politician who ran against Lukashenko in 2020 elections seen as fraudulent, told Newsweek the deal cemented Lukashenko's regime "as a militarized satellite of Russia." The ISW assessment released Wednesday said that the Kremlin wants to tighten its grip on Belarus by formalizing the Union State as a Russian-dominated federated government that grants Moscow dominant power over most, if not all, aspects of Belarusian governance. Moscow wants full control over Belarus' armed forces and Russian military bases in the country and a political union with a Kremlin-dominated federated government in which Belarusians and Russians would be governed as a single polity.
It is indeed. But it would probably take a Russian political collapse for China to risk it. That's why the CCP sees the war continuing as a win-win for China. If Russia wins, it normalizes conquest and brings China closer to making a move against Taiwan. If Russia loses and collapses, then China can walk into its old territory under the guise of keeping order and accomplish a major goal toward reunification.
RC buggies with mines attached being used in lieu of human assaults to dislodge russians in bunkers Remote control 'kamikaze' cars aiding Ukraine on the battlefield | Watch
So what does “imminent collapse” look like. In a closed media state and at least somewhat closed economy, it may not get as much attention. In the US economy if gdp goes negative or an additional 1 in 25 people lose their jobs it’s a big deal. In Russia, if an additional 1 in 25 lose their job does it even move the needle? I’ve been hearing how the economy will collapse for 2 years yet here we are. they’ve had 600k killed or wounded but they seem to mostly shrug it off.
I would have to assume that imminent collapse looks like 1989. Russia has gone through this before with the Afghanistan war, although they had other things dragging their economy as well. They were over-stretched trying to maintain control over their vassals states in eastern Europe, and in an arms race with the U.S. For some reason, intelligence man Vlad Putin wants to reconstitute Russia's vassal states.
One good thing about the timing of Russia's war in Ukraine: Putin did not wait another decade for Norway to run out of offshore gas supplies. Norway has passed "peak gas" production, and is on a slow decline. Had Putin waited, Europe would have been much more dependent on Russian gas and might not have been able to turn off the supply. Hopefully, Russia will collapse in the near future and be reconstituted as a trustworthy and peaceful nation to buy oil & gas from. ‘Dusk for Norway is dawn for Russia’: The looming gas crisis facing the West
What is it about England ? Bloodiest sector on the planet for a millennia. Arguably the primary belligerent in both world wars. Torpedoed the Istanbul Accords. Now peace-proofing for 100 years.
Thank you for the clarification. But probably not something the CCP will pursue anytime soon since our foreign policy pushed them to form a 'no limits partnership' with Russia that would make Master P proud.
putin can't have many of these left.. Ukrainian forces obliterate Russian S-400 in daring strike The Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted a spectacular operation resulting in the destruction of the Russian S-400 Triumph air defense system. The strike took place in the Belgorod region, near the city of Belgorod, located on Russian territory. The Ukrainian army presented pictures documenting the effects of the attack, including a completely destroyed missile launcher. The successful strike on the S-400 system has far-reaching consequences for Russian military logistics. The launchers, which were used to protect critical military sites and logistics infrastructure in the region, have been eliminated, weakening the Kremlin's ability to defend its positions. According to Interia, experts point out that this incident will affect Russia's operational capabilities in both the Belgorod and Kursk regions. The system lost by Vladimir Putin's army can cost up to a billion dollars in its full configuration.
That partnership only exists as long as it’s in China’s interest. I fully acknowledge that partnership was in the interests of both parties this time three years ago, and I would have pursued it, too, if I was either of them. But right now if you’re China you have to be wondering if you have chained yourself to a corpse. Take another look at that shaded area, examine the untapped resources, and tell me the CCP’s covetous eyes are not on it. I am only pointing out once more that a Russian political collapse results in a strategic win for China just as much, if not more, than a Russian strategic victory.
Are we talking about a Russian political collapse in terms of Putin being taken out and hiding out in exile while they replace him with someone more ruthless and 30 years younger? You know my thoughts as to the likelihood of that scenario. I was watching something in the past few days about this partnership and they were talking about how China is exploring the expansion of their trade routes to go up and over Russia to the north by way of the Arctic. I don't necessarily see this partnership breaking down anytime soon.
