War in Ukraine

Russia's demands will be placated late this year or early next year when their economy collapses. Standard procedure for whenever Russia gets in a war with an enemy that fights back (and can keep fighting for years) and there is no material support forthcoming for Russia from the U.S. If Trump increases military aid to Ukraine, Russia's collapse could occur sooner than that.

 

I can’t really see a series of events in which Trump provides military aid to Ukraine.

 

Covertly?

 

I know it doesn't match his rhetoric, but his actions often don't match his campaign rhetoric. I think his military advisors may start lobbying Trump to help Ukraine when Trump realizes that:

a) Ukraine has a good chance to win the war (Trump wants to be associated with a winner).

and

b) Aid to Ukraine might be the fastest way to end the war.

At some point in Russia's imminent economic collapse, Putin will start to look weak. He will no longer be able to maintain the facade that he is in control of the war or of Russia. Once Trump starts to lose respect for Putin as a strongman and dictator, he will probably turn on Putin.